Daily write-up - Apr 1st

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Stratford and Uttoxeter in the UK – plus Navan in Ireland.

The quality of the NH racing may not be up to the level of most Saturdays during the winter months – but at least it’s a bit better than it was yesterday, and therefore feels a more appropriate ‘final day’ for the season.

Tomorrow would have been an even better final day – as there are a couple of decent cards, at Ascot and Fairyhouse. However, I’d already arranged a day away (after 5 months chained to my PC !), so you’ll just have to settle for me posting a few brief thoughts on the forum, later this evening !

I was quite shocked to see how the ground was riding at Warwick on Thursday.

In fairness, the word ‘soft’ did appear in the going description – I just didn’t really believe it !

However, watching the racing from there, I think they could have got away with describing it as ‘heavy’ !

That wasn’t the case yesterday, where the ground at both Fontwell and Wetherby looked relatively quick (as I would have expected).

I would expect the same today – however, the word ‘soft’ again appears the going description at both Uttoxeter and Stratford – and apparently there is also a chance of showers.

I therefore suggest an element of caution…

For those of you who don’t tend to access the forum, then an alternative date has been propose for the TVB Day at the Races.

Sunday April 23^rd – at Stratford.

If you are interested, then please post on the thread accordingly (so I can get a feel for numbers).

Now that the season is over (ignoring Aintree, obviously), I will start work on the end of season report.

From a tipping perspective, it’s been a tough season – and quite different to the 4 that have preceded it.
I’ve given some thought as to why that has been – and also to how best to evolve things for next season.

I’d really like to complete the report and get it issued before Aintree begins – but I somehow doubt that will happen.

If I don’t manage, then I will look to send it out, the week after Aintree…

Anyway, that’s all in the future - and we’ve still got today to deal with !

Here are my thoughts on some of the days races…

Stratford

3:20 My initial feeling when looking at this race, was that it might contain the days best bet – in fact, it might even contain a tip !

The horse that interested me, was Some Buckle.

He was an eye catcher 3 runs ago, when he made his seasonal debut at Aintree, in a better class race than he contests today.

He was still tanking that day, when he ploughed through the fourth last fence.
He did well not to fall – but lost all chance of winning and was immediately pulled up.

He’s disappointed on his 2 runs since, then: over 2 miles at Ascot: and then on soft ground at Wincanton.

I feel that he will be better suited by todays trip of 2m6f – and decent ground (assuming that’s what it is !).

He’s also shown that he is capable of running well after a break…

I would have been quite prepared to take a risk on him at the opening quote of 7/1 – however he was backed into half that price, very quickly and it’s debatable how much margin there is in that…

Most of the runners in the race can be given a chance, with ex eye catcher, Raktiman, the one I find next most appealing.

That said, a price of 11/2 about him doesn’t give a great deal away.

Monetaire is potentially well handicapped and would be very interesting if backed: whilst Hedley Lamarr is not badly treated and the stable of Jonjo O’Neill is in decent form (not before time, some might say !).

Pull the Chord should run his race, but may be vulnerable, from a win perspective.

3:55 Asum is the one that interests me most in this.

He disappointed last time at Doncaster, when a well backed favourite on his handicap debut.

He wouldn’t settle that day and ultimately didn’t get home over the 2m4f trip.

He’s dropped back half a mile in distance this afternoon – and he also wears a tongue tie and hood for the first time.

Presumably the hood is being applied with the intention of getting him to relax more in the race – and if it works, I suspect he will be hard to beat.

Certainly the form of his previous run, when beating Amour De Nuit in a novice hurdle at Taunton, looks good.

The runner up is now rated 125 (and was second off that mark on Thursday) – whereas Asum runs today off a mark of just 115.

Sioux Chieftain is the race favourite on the strength of a win on his sole hurdle outing at Wetherby, precisely 1 year ago.

It’s only possible to guess how good he is – and how ready he is to do himself justice – though I suspect the market will advise, close to the off.

Star Foot is the most solid option – and he should certainly run his race. However, he doesn’t set an insurmountable standard…

I’m not sure what connections are doing with Sirop de Menthe, who seems to be running over the wrong trip – and on the wrong ground.
I would therefore become mighty suspicious if he was backed !

Whilst the other 3 shouldn’t really be good enough to win…

Uttoxeter

3:05 Silverhow has been installed quite a short priced favourite for this – but I wonder how much of that is due to the fact he’s a half brother of Altior…

In fairness, he did win on his handicap debut, last time at Sandown – but that was a poor race and he will need to have improved to defy an 8lb rise in a stronger contest.

Land League is second favourite – and he is even less exposed under rules.

He’s only run in 3 novice hurdles – though he has also competed in 9 PTPs (winning 1).

He’s stepped up in trip for his handicap debut and that could well bring about improvement.

He’s not an easy one to assess…

The other 2 that interest me, are McKenzies Friend and Agamemmon – both of whom take a class drop this afternoon.

The former was due to run at Plumpton on Monday, but was pulled out due to the ground.

Assuming it is deemed soft enough for him to take his chance this afternoon, he must have a chance – particularly if the first time blinkers bring about some improvement.

Agamemmon also sports blinkers for the first time, having been tapped for toe over further, last time at Market Rasen.

I suspect he will get an aggressive ride today – and is certainly worth considering from a back to lay in running perspective.

If forced to commit to one, I think that McKenzies Friend offers the best value, at 8/1.

3:30 Despite only 6 runners, there could well be a fair amount of pace in this, as both Palm Grey and Greybougg like to front run.
That scenario will suit favourite, Buttercup, who will need every inch of the 2m4f trip.

She has progressed over the past few weeks – and it is quite possible that the handicapper still hasn’t caught up with her.

The issue is a price of 7/4, about a horse who may struggle, if there isn’t a strong pace.

Allbarnone is a feasible alternative.
He ran really well on his chasing debut at Doncaster, a month ago.

If the form of that race is taken literally, then he is very well handicapped of a mark of 124 - as he ran a 146 rated horse to less than a length, in receipt of just 6lb.

However, that was a 3 horse race, so there is a chance that the form is unreliable.

That said, he also has some decent hurdles form – so whilst he might not be as good as his last run suggests, he could still prove to be a serious rival for Buttercup.

Navan

5:10 I’m most attracted to 3 relatively unfancied runners in this, in the shape of Vent de la Cote, Hurricane Darwin and Kayf Supreme…

All 3 have a significant question mark over them – but I suspect that they are the most talented horses in the field and I’ll be a bit disappointed if at least one of them doesn’t run a big race.

Vent de la Cote is the one that interests me most.
I had half an eye on him for the Leinster National last time, but I wasn’t convinced he would stay the 3 mile trip that day.

He probably didn’t and there is a chance that he might struggle with the 2m4f trip this afternoon.
However, if he does last home, then even with top weight, I suspect he is well enough handicapped to go close.

Hurricane Darwin should stay the trip - but he’s not run for over 3 months, so there is a question mark concerning his fitness.

He also disappointed on his most recent outing, so he will need to bounce back from that.

However, if he is in top form then I suspect he has the ability to defy a mark of 128.

There is also a question mark over the fitness of Kayf Supreme.

A former hunter chaser, he ran with promise in a few novice chases last season – and could still have significant improvement in him.

He’s not run for almost a year – and as I said on Thursday, you have to be a little wary with horses like this, as today could just be a prep for a target at one of the big spring festivals.

If he is close to peak form however, I could see him running very well…

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

None

Mentions

Stra 3:20 Some Buckle (P )

Stra 3:55 Asum (P )

Uttx 3:05 McKenzies Friend (S )

Uttx 3:40 Allbarnone (S )

Nav 5:10 Vent de la Cote (C )

Eye Catchers

Stra 3:20 Some Buckle