There are 4 NH meetings today: at Kempton, Newcastle and
Chepstow in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.
It’s
bit of a strange day, in so much as there are a handful of really good races –
and a lot of poor ones !
There is also significant variation in the likely going,
with is described at ‘Heavy’ at Newcastle – and ‘Good’ at Kempton.
I
hope that’s how it turns out, as I’ve based all my analysis on that assumption
!
I’ve
ended up with 4 tips on the day, in 3 races – additionally, there are quite a
few Mentions – though once again, no eye catchers (I think I need to start
looking a bit harder for some new ones !).
The
‘Fair bets’ got off to an inauspicious start in the forum – but I’m not going to
read too much into that.
I’ll
judge them in a months time – and even that may be too early (though it’s as
long as I’ve got !).
I’m
happy with the process for picking them – and comfortable that they are usable –
so hopefully the write-ups will be able to point them in the right
direction…
Here
are my thoughts on the days main races.
Kempton
1:15 I think it is worth taking a small risk on
Apple of our Eye, in this.
He’s
only run 6 times over hurdles – and had been progressing nicely until his most
recent run at Doncaster.
That
was at the end of November – and he ran really poorly.
In
fact, the run was so poor, I suspect that something must have been
amiss…
The
fact he’s not been seen for 3 months, certainly suggests that was the case – and
it is plenty long enough for him to have undergone a small procedure, in the
meantime…
Ofcourse I’m guessing on that score – but it’s an
educated guess !
If
we ignore that run, then I like his profile. I also like the enthusiastic way he
races and I would expect him to run a big race.
Whether he will be good
enough to win, is a different matter.
It’s
almost impossible to quantify half the field in this, so you couldn’t be adamant
about anything.
Alan
King, Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson saddle 2 runners apiece – and trying to
figure out the ‘live‘ ones, is not an easy task…
Crimson Arc is interesting
on his return to hurdling – though he has an absence of 119 days to
defy.
That said, there are 3 runners in the field who have been off the track
for even longer…
I’m
sure the market will provide guidance on their chances: as it will probably do
on the runners who are making their handicap debuts…
My
feeling is that whilst there could be a very well handicapped one in this, a
number of the runners will just be having a run…
I
don’t think that’s the case with Apple of our Eye – and although he may not be
quite good enough to win, under conditions that should suit him perfectly, I
suspect he has a good chance of at least placing…
1:50 Charli Parcs is clearly the one to beat in
this - but Evening Hush is a very interesting EW option against him.
Charli Parcs has only run once over hurdles in this
country - when bolting up on his debut for Nicky Henderson over todays course
and distance, at Christmas.
He really couldn’t have been more impressive that
day – and based on that run it will take a very good one to beat him this
afternoon.
Evening Hush may not be quite good enough to do that –
but I would be optimistic that she will be good enough to at least give him a
race.
On
the figures, there is not a lot between the pair – and the front running style
of Evening Hush, should be well suited by the sharp Kempton course.
Unfortunately, she’s not absolutely guaranteed to be
suited by the likely good ground – but as an ex flat horse, it will be a little
surprising if she can’t handle it.
I’d
be pretty confident that she is at least the second best horse in the race - my
only concern would be if she paid a price for trying to beat Charli Parcs (and
ended up fading badly, close home).
In
truth, the 2 of them do seem to stand a fair way clear of their rivals, so it’s
really a question of figuring out the best way to play things…
An
EW bet on Evening Hush is the simplest option: though backing her without Charli
Parcs in the race is another.
3:35 I’d very much like to get involved with this
race – but I’m struggling to see an angle…
My
original 2 against the field were Viva Steve and Ballykan – and whilst I expect
them to run well, I am a little fearful that both are vulnerable from a win
perspective.
They
both ran in the race 12 months ago and finished a fair way behind Theatre Guide.
However, they are better off at the weights today – and strictly on the book,
have a good chance of reversing the form.
I
actually think they will: Viva Steve, because he is now under the care of Fergal
O’Brien (and seems to have improved for the stable switch); and Ballykan because
he was an inexperienced 6 year old last year, so is now likely to be a better
horse.
Barry Geraghty is also a very eye catching jockey booking
for Viva Steve, and I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t run well.
The
only trouble is, at just 8/1, I see minimal margin in his price.
I’m
put off Ballykan, primarily by his jockey booking.
When
the decs originally came through, Jamie Bargary was down to ride. I was
surprised that Daryl Jacob was not on board – but would have accepted Bargary as
a substitute.
He’s very good value for his 3lb claim – and I just can’t view
Willie Twiston Davies in the saddle, as a positive.
Outside of those 2, there are at least half a dozen
horses that I could good a chance to.
Double Shuffle is the obvious one – and a worthy
favourite – but Aso, Three Musketeers and Irish Saint, have all got win
potential.
More
than that, the likes of Opening Batsman, Cocktails at Dawn and Triolo D’Alene
have enough back-class to go very close, if they are on a going day…
The
betting might ultimately provide some guidance – certainly with regard to Three
Musketeers and Triolo D’Alene - but without that, it has to be a watching
race…
4:10 I might have beaten Tom Segal to the punch
with Berea Boru and Russe Blanc – but he’s got his own back in this, with
Ballycoe…
He
tipped it in the Racing Posts newsletter ‘The Punt’ – and its price promptly
crashed from 14/1 to 7/1 best, this morning…
That’s a real shame, because this looks a very winnable
race – and the conditions should suit Ballycoe perfectly…
That
wasn’t the case the last time he ran, at Sandown in January.
The
ground was very soft that day and Ballycoe just didn’t act on it.
He
had run much better on his previous outing at Aintree, early in December - and
if he can return to that level of form, he will go close in this.
Full
Shift has been installed favourite for the race – and based on some of his form
from last year, he would bolt up in this.
However, he has been disappointing
this season – as the application of both a tongue tie and cheek pieces,
confirm.
I
wouldn’t generally be keen on a horse like Sir Note, as he has gone up the
handicap for winning a relative modest race. However, this is such a weak
contest, there is a lot to be said for being in form and being able to act in
the conditions (and he has ticks in both of those boxes).
I
suspect the best way to play the race, is to back Ballycoe, around lunchtime
(queue a Fair bet !).
By
that point, the impact of Tom Segal picking him will have waned – so if he is
still strong in the market, it will be genuine money – and if he’s not, you’ll
get a better price !
Newcastle
2:45 I’m quite keen on Berea Boru in
this…
I
had an eye on him for the Welsh National, earlier in the season – but he clearly
came to hand a bit too late and didn’t make the race.
Instead he made his seasonal debut at Haydock, a week
earlier – ridden by a 7lb claimer.
Needless to say, he never
featured…
Next
time out, he ran in the Peter Marsh chase, again at Haydock.
This
time Sean Bowen was on board – and Berea Boru ran much better.
He
ultimately finished well held – but it was a very strong race and he still had
half a chance turning in.
I suspect that will have put him cherry ripe for
today – and he gets to run from a mark 9lb lower (he ran from out of the
handicap, last time).
Sean
Bowen rides again – and he’s travelled a long way for just one ride,
particularly considering that there is racing at Chepstow (which is much closer
to home !),.
The fitting of a first time visor looks very interesting – and
the horse should relish the stamina test.
He
looked massively progressive this time last year –and gets to run today from a
mark just 2lb higher than for his last win.
I
did hope that he might slip under the radar – and the early 40/1 might still be
there this morning. However, it soon became clear that wasn’t the case – though
hopefully most of you managed to at least secure 20/1 (which is still decent
value).
The
other one I like in the race, is Russe Blanc.
There isn’t quite the same
story to tell with him – simply he will relish the conditions and is reasonably
handicapped based on his win in the Classic chase at Warwick, last
season.
He
runs off a mark just 3lb higher today – and it could be argued that having Brian
Hughes in the saddle rather than Charlie Poste, offsets the additional
burden.
He
is certainly worth having on side as a saver…
As
you would expect in a race such as this, there are plenty of others who can be
given a chance.
Streets of Promise and Mysteree are both particularly
interesting, for the Michael Scudamore stable.
That
said, I am more than happy with Berea Boru and Russe Blanc.
If
they get that bit of luck which is always required in a race such as this, I am
optimistic they can both go very close.
4:30 I would be quite keen to take on race
favourite, Ballybolley, in this, as I just can’t see him coping with very heavy
ground.
The
question is, what to side with…
Special Wells is the obvious one – even though he is
edging up the weights.
He has won his last 2 races – and even though he steps
up a class today, he still may be up to the task.
The
trouble is, 4/1 is a tight price…
Eastview Boy has an excellent record at Newcastle – and
whilst he has a lot of ground to make up on Special Wells from their run at
Wetherby, last month, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run well.
That said,
the 2 who interest me most, are Caraline and The Ramblin Kid.
Both
are trained by Micky Hammond – and the suggestion from jockey bookings, is that
Caraline is the stables number one hope.
That
is probably the case – and I think he has a decent chance.
Certainly, he was in very good form this time last year –
and has now slipped to a mark where he may be capable of winning
again.
However, it is The Rambling Kid who really grabs my
attention.
He
is potentially very well handicapped - and his best form has been at
Newcastle.
The
trouble is, he is having his first run for over a year – and has no great record
fresh.
He’s
one who could only be backed late, if there was market confidence – but if the
market does like him, then I would expect him to run a very big race.
Chepstow
3:40 I’ve said before, but these Pertemps
qualifiers are strange races…
In
order to qualify for the final at Cheltenham, a horse has to finish in the first
6 in a qualifier.
In all probability, it also has to be rated at least
135.
Gordon Elliot will have sent Jury Duty over to run in
this race, as it is his last chance of qualify for the final.
However, the horse is already rated high enough to get
into the race, so there is little incentive for him to win today (he just needs
a top 6 finish).
In fact, if he does win today, his chance of winning the
final will reduce (as his handicap mark will rise).
We
therefore have a race favourite, with a good reason for not winning !
The
tricky bit is picking the one that will win – but I think the field can be
thinned out a fair bit…
I
would suggest that the 6 to focus on are Soupy Soups, Gayebury, Abbreviate, Red
Hanrahan, Ballyculla – and possibly Surtee du Berlais.
Although he was backed last night, Ballyculla was just
about the biggest priced of those this morning (excluding Surtee du Berlais) –
and just about my preferred choice in the race.
He
is very well handicapped based on his old form (he has been competitive off a
mark of 133 – and runs off 127 today) – and has a decent 7lb claimer in the
saddle.
He
also ran really well last time, in a good race at Sandown, staying on strongly
at the end, in a manner that suggests the more demanding Chepstow course, should
suit him well.
I’ll
be very surprised if he doesn’t run a big race this afternoon – the question is
just whether he will be good enough to win.
I
did consider putting him up EW – but 2/1 to place seems short when there are so
many variables to consider (some of you may not agree with this statement
!).
Of
the others, then Gayebury is the one I would fear most (but he is second
favourite); whilst Soupy Soups has now drifted to a price which makes him quite
interesting…
4:15 This is a really tight race – and it’s not
easy to see much of an angle…
We
were on Grey Gold earlier this month, when he beat Bright New Dawn (and Bold
Henry).
Conditions were perfect for him that day – and I wouldn’t be sure he
will be able to confirm the form with Bright New Dawn, this afternoon on 4lb
worse terms.
Module is another one who we have been with previously
this season. However, he disappointed on both occasions and whilst he could
easily bounce back today, it’s guesswork as to how much ability he
retains.
I
suspect that Pearls Legend and Canicallyouback, will struggle in the heavy
ground – which leaves Sew on Target.
If
he gets the run of the race, he could prove very difficult to beat.
He
should love conditions and is very well handicapped. However he is now 12 years
old, and possibly in decline…
In
truth, it is probably a race best left alone.
I
would nominate Bright New Dawn as the most likely winner - but he is favourite –
and vulnerable to 2 or 3 of his rivals if things fall right for them…
Fairyhouse
3:30 I’d love to get involved with Baie des Iles
in this.
She
did us a huge favour when winning at Punchestown earlier this month – and must
have every chance of following up this afternoon.
However, that was in a much weaker race than todays – and
she was over 3 times the price…
I
think she has a very good chance of winning this afternoon – but there is
minimal margin in a price of 5/2.
Katie Walsh rode a brilliant race on her that day – and
it won’t be easy for her to repeat this afternoon.
More
than that, even if she does, Pleasant Company and Wounded Warrior are class
animals and they won’t be easily shrugged off.
She also has the ex Gold cup
winner, Lord Windermere, to deal with…
All
this said, I do think that Baie des Iles is the most likely winner – and I can
fully understand the price.
I
just can’t quite bring myself to get involved with her at those kind of
odds…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead
!
TVB.
Advice Summary
Tips
DT
Kemp 1:15 Apple of our Eye 0.125pt EW 25/1
BRT
Newc 2:25 Berea Boru 0.25pt win, 0.125pt palce 25/1
BRT
Newc 2:25 Russe Blanc 0.125pt win 14/1
DT
Chep 3:40 Ballyculla 0.25pt win 9/1
Mentions
Kemp
1:50 Evening Hush EW
Kemp
3:35 Viva Steve (O )
Kemp
4:10 Ballycoe (P )
Newc
4:30 The Ramblin Kid (S )
Fairy 3:30 Baie des Iles (P )
