Daily write-up - Feb 8th

There are 2 NH meetings today: at Ludlow and Carlisle.

It’s been a very quiet start to the week, but things pick up a little today, with a couple of reasonable meetings.

Both feature a really strong chase – and I was even able to find a tip in one of them…

The supporting races aren’t as good – but I’ve found one at each meeting to pass comment on.

Here are my thoughts on the day…

Ludlow

2:40 On Demand is the one that interests me most in this…

She ran a huge race in a really strong mares handicap hurdle at Cheltenham before Christmas; and then ran a perfectly respectable race in a decent novice hurdle at Wincanton, just after Christmas.

She had to carry a double penalty in the latter race – and it was over a trip short of her best, so back in handicap company today and running over a more suitable trip, I would expect her to go very well.

In fact, if it weren’t for the presence of Twentytwos Taken, I could be really interested in her.

However, On Demand is a keen going front runner – and there is a chance that Twentytwos Taken could bustle her for the lead and cause her to go too fast.

It’s difficult to say for sure, as Twentytwos Taken hasn’t run for a while – and was below her best when she was last seen – but prior to a fall at Worcester in June, she had shown decent form, and it was all when leading…

Tara View is the obvious danger.
The winner of a couple of novice hurdles prior to Christmas, it is difficult to get a proper handle on.

However, a literal interpretation of her defeat of the now 135 rated Happy Diva, makes her look well handicapped off a mark of 124. That said, taking the form at face value could be a little dangerous (as Happy Diva may have subsequently improved).

Timons Taras was a good winner of a handicap chase 11 days ago – and looks well handicapped on that form.
However, she probably improved for fences – and definitely wants very soft ground. She also seemed better going left handed, last time…

In short, provided Twentytwos Taken doesn’t mess things up, this looks a question of whether On Demand can run the sting out of Tara View.

At 5/1, it could be worth a small risk that she can…

3:10 This is a really strong looking race – which includes an eye catcher in the shape of Gone Too Far.

He caught eye on his penultimate run, before again running reasonably last time.
Both of those efforts were over 3 miles – and he drops to 2m4f today, which should help him.

He is also 4lb lower in the handicap, and Tom Scudamore takes over in the saddle - so really does warrant serious consideration.

The only trouble is, I think he wants decent ground – and he’s not likely to get that.

He’s a big enough price to warrant a saver – but this race is hot and I think he would need a tick in every box, in order to win…

Icing on the Cake is favourite – and that is perfectly reasonable based on his last time out win at Newbury.
That may only have been a 4 horse race – but it looked a quality contest and he won it well.

A mere 2lb rise is very generous – and I would also expect Icing on the Cake to improve for todays longer trip.

The only issue is with his price of 4/1, in what is a deep race…

Altiepix is the other well fancied horse who I particularly like.

He ran really well at Chepstow on his debut for Kerry Lee – and if he can build on that, he will go close today.

I would expect him to be suited by the drop in trip – but I would have preferred to see Jamie Moore in the saddle (he has gone to Carlisle to ride Alfie Spinner).

Pougne Bobbi is impossible to get a handle on – and could be anything: whilst Aerlite Supreme is starting to look well handicapped – and should be well suited by todays test.
Victory for either, wouldn’t come as a great surprise – though their credentials aren’t rock solid…

I’m more taken by the claims of Sergeant Mattie.
He travelled really well in a good quality race at Sandown last time (Speredek ran in the same contest).

That was only his second run back after a long break – but it looked as if he retained all of his old ability, as he travelled on the bridle, to the third last.

Understandably he wasn’t given a hard time after that point – but he still managed to finish a creditable fifth.

The handicapper has dropped him 3lb for that run – and I suspect he will be cherry ripe today.
Noel Fehily takes the ride again – and the stable of Charlie Longsdon seems to just be finding some form.

In such a tough race, I can’t be confident that he will be win – but I do think he will run better than the market expects.

At 16/1 in a place, he is worth a small EW play.

Carlisle

3:20 I quite like the look of Dick Darsie in this…

He was backed down to favouritism for a similar race to this at Wetherby on Boxing day – but his saddle slipped and he had to be pulled up.

He showed what he was capable of, on his next and most recent run, when finishing a close fifth at Ayr.
That was a much better contest than todays and Dick Darsie was only beaten 3 lengths.
The handicapper has dropped him a pound for that run – and he is stepped up a half a mile in trip today, which I think will help him.

The biggest issue is getting a handle on some on his rivals.

Most of them have plenty of scope for improvement – and as this is a relatively low grade contest, it wouldn’t be a major surprise to see one of them do just that…

I would expect Dick Darsie to run his race – and if nothing else in the field is particularly well fancied, that may be good enough to see him home in front.

4:30 If it weren’t for the danger of a pace war, I would probably take a chance on Rigadin de Beauchene in this.
He likes to lead – in fact, he almost insists on it – but there are 3 others in the race who are of a similar disposition.

Hester Flemen has led on all 4 of her races under rules: whilst Blakemount has won when racing from the front – and Alfie Spinner made all last time…

I suspect that Rigadin will still get to the front – but the presence of Hester Flemen in particular, is real a concern…

Maybe things will work out fine for him – and if that’s the case, then I do think he is the one to beat.

Certainly he ran a huge ran in the Classic Chase at Warwick last time, where despite having run loose pre–race, he travelled really strongly and led the field to the third last.

That was a stronger race than todays – and Rigadin has been dropped 2lb for the run, putting him back on the mark from which he was last successful, at Haydock just over 12 months ago.

He is now 12 years old – but based on the Warwick run, that’s not an issue.

It’s not an issue for Alfie Spinner either.

He is the same age, but it didn’t stop him from winning very well at Wincanton last time. A 7lb weight rise could stop him following up today, though…

In fact, Cyclop may be more of a danger. He was still travelling very nicely in the Wincanton race, when falling at the fourth last.

Carlisle’s fences are more forgiving than those at Wincanton - which should help Cyclop but not Alfie Spinner (who won last time, mainly because of his excellent jumping).

Bigirononhiship and Join the Clan are difficult to get a proper handle on – but both have sufficient question marks over them to be left alone in what is a pretty strong contest.

Provided the ground is riding close to heavy, and assuming that Rigadin can get into a comfortable lead, then he is the one to beat.
It’s tempting to take a risk on him at a price – but I’m just put off by those 2 doubts.

If you are able to properly assess the state of the ground – then it could be worth a risk that the race will unfold in his favour.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

Lud 3:10 Sergeant Mattie 0.125pt EW 16/1

Mentions

Lud 2:40 On Demand (C )

Carl 3:20 Dick Darsie (O )

Carl 4:30 Rigadin du Beauchene (C )

Eye Catchers

Lud 3:10 Gone too Far