Daily write-up - Feb 5th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Musselburgh and Taunton in the UK – plus Punchestown in Ireland.

There is a nice variety of racing today, with some interesting contests at all 3 venues.

The meeting at Musselburgh is a little disappointing (the quality of todays fixture has been compromised by making it a 2 day meeting): but that is offset by a better Taunton card than I would have expected – and a very interesting Punchestown card…

Despite its relative quality, the nature of the racing means there are few opportunities for tips – though I have found one at Punchestown – and there are quite a few Mentions plus a couple of Top Picks.

Here are my thoughts on the days main races…

Punchestown

2:00 This is a ferociously competitive qualifier for the Pertemps final, run at the Cheltenham festival, and you have to think that whatever wins it, will need to be taken very seriously come March…

Often it is the horses placed in the qualifiers, that you need to focus on when the final comes round – but many of todays runners aren’t currently rated high enough to get into the final, so they will need to win today (or at least go very close).

It’s impossible to know what mark the British assessor will give an Irish horse, but I suspect that anything rated below 128 today, will be trying its best to get an increase in its mark…

Carrig Cathal and Presenting Percy are both just above that mark – but close enough to it, for connections not to be complacent.
I think they will be both be trying and they are my idea of the most likely winner.

The Crafty Butcher must also have a big chance, back over hurdles off the same mark he finished second in the Paddy Power chase from; whilst Gallant Oscar is another best known for his exploits over fences, who is well treated over hurdles.

It’s probably no coincidence that the last 2 named are ridden by Ruby Walsh and Barry Geraghty respectively.

2:30 He could never have been a tip, but I quite like Usuel Smurfer in this…

He was a decent horse under rules – and his recent second to On his Own, suggests that is still the case, now that he is pointing…

This is his first try at cross country, but if he takes to it, I could see him going close.
He is still only 9, so unlikely to be in decline – and he receives weight from a number of his rivals.

He was 20/1 last night – though you can’t beat 12/1 now. However, that still might not be a bad price…

Ballybroker Bridge probably sets the standard for the race – though the 3 Enda Bolger runners - Auvergnat, Colour Squadron and Love Rory – all have to be given the utmost respect.

3:00 As always, it will be a joy to watch Douvan in this – and barring accidents, he won’t be beaten.

Of more interest, is what will follow him home…

The betting is adamant it will be Smashing – but I’m not so convinced on that one.

Realt Mor was once a very decent horse - and he the way he won over hurdles last time, suggested that a lot of the old ability remains.

He can be backed at 9/1 ‘without Douvan’ – or presumably at a similar price in the forecast.
That would be how I would play the race…

3:30 I was very keen on Velocity Boy the last time he ran – but he was given a questionable ride and fell at the second last.

I read an argument that the issue was him going left handed – and he is back right handed today.
He should really be capable of making all and outclassing his rivals today  – I guess time will tell…

4:00 Despite there being 15 runners in this, it strikes me as a 2 horse race…

Bonny Kate and Baie des Iles fought out the finish to the corresponding race 12 months ago – and I expect the same thing to happen his afternoon.
In receipt of 3lb, Bonny Kate came out on top by 6 lengths that day – and she receives 3lb again today, which suggests the result should be the same.

However, Baie des Iles was only a 5 year old last season and so received an 8lb ‘weight for age’ allowance. She should actually have been conceding 11lb to Bonny Kate last year – so is effectively 8lb better off today !

What that means in real terms, is that the expectation is that Baie des Iles should be an 8lb better horse today that she was last year – simply because she will have matured in the interim.

It’s difficult to know if that is true – but there was certainly little wrong with her fifth place behind Native River in the Welsh National last time, on ground that would have been a bit too quick for her.

It looks to me as if she has been saved since then for todays race – and that is in contrast with Bonny Kate, who ran a really big race just 10 days ago, in the Thystes at Gowran.

In truth, I find it quite difficult to choose between the pair, as I like them both.

If forced, I would probably side with Bonny Kate – however she is a 5/2 shot, whereas Baie des Iles is 7/1…

That price discrepancy isn’t right and means that we have to side with the latter.

The question then becomes how best to stake things.
I guess I could have split stakes across the 2 (effectively saving on Bonny Kate) - but instead I opted for a simple EW bet…

Taunton

2:50 It’s virtually impossible to get a handle on the bottom 4 runners in this race – and all 4 come from stables quite capable of winning a race such as this.

Consequently, it’s not a race that can be tackled with much confidence…

If I was going to get involved, it would probably be with Bertimont.

He was quite progressive a couple of seasons ago – and even ran in the Champion hurdle.

However he then had 18 months off the track, only reappearing last November.

Unsurprisingly, he didn’t show much that day – but showed a little more in his following run at Sandown – and again at Kempton, over Christmas.

In truth, it is impossible to know just how much ability he retains – but his mark is dropping rapidly and he gets to run off 130 today – 15lb lower than at the start of the season.

If he a fair chunk of the old ability remains, then he is probably the one to beat - though I would be very wary of strong market support for any of the bottom 4 runners.

3:20 Speredek is certainly of some interest in this…

He caught the eye on his most recent run, in a hot race at Sandown.

He led for a fair chunk of that race, jumping and travelling well – before running out of steam in the final half mile and eventually getting pulled up.

The handicapper has dropped him 7lb for that run, which puts him on the same mark that he went close off over hurdles at Exeter, last March.

He drops in trip to 2m2f today – and that is a slight concern. However, there is a chance he will get an uncontested lead, which is always a big positive.

It’s quite tempting to take a chance on him at a price – but the presence of a couple of totally unexposed rivals, has put me off…

Contre Tous and Big Windmill are both totally unexposed and represent very strong connections.

They could literally be anything – and make getting involved with this race something of a lottery.

That said, I suspect the betting will have a decent handle on them close to the off – so if it doesn’t fancy either of them and Speredek is quite strong, I’ll be tempted to take the hint…

3:50 Dell ‘Arca arguably sets the standard in this, on the back of his really good run at Kempton over Christmas.

Approaching the last, he looked sure to win that day, but a poor jump saw him run out of things close home.
He has a 3lb weight ride to contend with this afternoon – but I would still expect him to go close.

Verni has been made a very short priced favourite, on the back of his second to Clyne at Haydock in November.
That certainly looks good form but I’m not sure it entitles him to be put in as short at 6/4…

If I was going to getting involved in the race, it would probably be with Winning Spark.

He was a winning eye catcher on his penultimate outing - and ran a fair race last time, against some potentially progressive rivals.

He’s been dropped 2lb for that run – and so is now on a mark just 5lb higher than the one he won from.

He’s a 14/1 shot, which means he’s a bigger price to place than Venri is to win – and that suggests he could be a bit of value…

4:20 This is quite a tight looking race – but I was half tempted to take a chance on Warriors Tale.
I tipped him earlier in the season, when he finished second at Newbury – and he followed that up with a disappointing run at the same course, when quite well fancied.

Interestingly, he has a tongue tie applied of the first time today, suggesting that he might have had a breathing issue. His 53 day absence is also just about long enough for him to have undergone minor surgery…

I guess we’ll find out after the event - if he wins !

If you want to know before the event, I suggest you monitor the betting…

Musselburgh

3:10 Baltimore Rock was a hugely disappointing tip, the last time he ran.

That was at Fairyhouse, and I honestly thought he was the bet of the season !
However, he was surprisingly weak in the market – and trailed the field until being pulled up just after half way.
I’ve no idea what was going on – and so far as I’m aware, nothing was officially reported – but I’m sure all was not quite as it appeared…

Maybe we’ll find out today – certainly if he wins, I would expect questions to be asked !

In the circumstances, I can’t possibly get involved today – though I would expect him to win (assuming last time was a one off !).

4:10 This is another Pertemps qualifier - but it isn’t half as interesting as the one being run at Punchestown…

I quite fancied Alzamaar for it, on the back of a very promising first run for Sam England.

He will certainly appreciate the good ground better than most – but I’m surprised at how well backed he’s been this morning (in to 7/2).

At a price (20/1), Nautical Nitwit makes a bit of appeal – but in truth, it is a race which I’m struggling to summon up much enthusiasm for…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

Punc 4:00 Baie des Iles 0.25pt EW 7/1

Mentions

Punc 2:30 Usuel Smurfer (S )

Punc 3:00 Realt Mor (without Douvan)

Punc 3:30 Velocity Boy (P )

Taun 2:50 Bertimont (S )

Taun 4:20 Warriors Tale (O )

Eye Catchers

Taun 3:20 Speredek

Muss 3:10 Baltimore Rock