Daily write-up - Feb 20th

There are 2 NH meetings this afternoon: at Carlisle and Lingfield.

As you know, I tend to take Mondays off. However, there are some interesting races today, so I’ll save my day of rest, for later in the week !

Before I get on to todays racing – just a few words on yesterday – and in particular, Mad Brian !

I do hope that one or two of you kept the faith with him yesterday – even though I did my best to put you off !

The trouble is, it’s nearly impossible with a horse like him.

Obviously, he once had the ability to hack up in a race like the one he ran in yesterday – but the recent evidence suggested he was in decline – and you can only give them so many chances…

I did expect him to travel strongly – but I also expected him to fade out of contention once the race began in earnest.

As I’ve said innumerable times before, the betting is by far the best guide in these situations.

The morning market suggested he had no chance – and he had drifted out to 25/1 in a few places at lunchtime (bigger on BF).

My plan was to have a few pounds on him at a very big price on BF – and then lay him off in running, which I didn’t anticipate being a problem, if he travelled as I expected.

I was therefore really surprised when I checked the market 5 mins before the off and found his price had significantly shortened.

You couldn’t beat 20 at that point – and he was clearly being backed…

By the off, he was down to 13 – and it was obvious that he was going to run well.

Unfortunately, there is nothing I can in such situations.

I often say to watch the market – but I know that is impossible for many of you.

He could just as easily have been sent off at 50 on BF yesterday – and if that had been the case, I’m pretty sure he would have been pulled up.

However, someone knew he was going to run a big race – and the market spoke loudly, if you were able to listen…

We have little option other than to shrug our shoulders and accept that such things happen – unless ofcourse you are able to bet very close to the off…

Anyway, that was yesterday – so on to today.

There are a few races of interest at Carlisle – plus the Surrey National at Lingfield, which has yielded a rare Monday tip !

Here are my thoughts…

Carlisle

2:30 Hartside is another TVB favourite and he will come good again – and sooner rather than later.

Whether that will be today, I’m not sure – but he is edging down the handicap and is now on a mark from which he can win.

In fairness, he was on a winnable mark last time at Bangor – but he got going too late in that race.

He’s only 2lb lower today, so it might well be the same story again – though the uphill finish at Carlisle should help him.

The re-application of a visor suggests that connections feel he has a decent chance today – and he could easily get placed.

Whether he is able to get his head in front however, only time will tell…

3:00 When I first looked at this race, I was quite keen on the chance on Kap Jazz.

He’s the only runner that Venetia sends to Carlisle – and he ran a fair race behind Royal Vacation, on his seasonal debut at Lingfield.

That was back in November – so his absence since then is a bit of a concern.
However, Venetia tends to have them ready when they run – and he’s unlikely to have been sent such a long way, unless he is ready to do himself justice.

That said, he’s a horse who seems to want a test of stamina – and 2m4f on good to soft ground, is unlikely to provide that.

In the circumstances, I have to look elsewhere…

In truth, this is a weak race. However, I was still surprised to see Purcells Bridge installed the early favourite.

Maybe it was just a defensive stance by the bookmakers.

If he is still favourite as the off, I would expect him to run a big race, but I suspect he will have been displaced at the head of the market, by that point.

I think The Cobbler Swayne is the most likely race winner – and he will probably start favourite as well.

He competed in stronger races than this, for most of last season – and he should be better for his recent comeback run at Wetherby.

Todays trip and ground will suit him perfectly – and he should take a bit of beating.

7/2 is definitely a fair enough price – though I’m not sure I’d want to take any less than that, without knowing how the market views Purcells Bridge, Kap Jazz – and also Take the Cash (who is another returning from a long absence, but potentially well handicapped).

4:10 I’ve tipped Top Wood twice already this season – and it’s very tempting to tip him again in this…

He was always going to find the trip too far last time – but still ran well until his stamina gave out.

He has been dropped another pound for that run – and like Hartside, he is now on a mark which means he will win sooner rather than later…

The fact that David Pipe is prepared to send him on a 650 mile round trip, has to be viewed as a positive – particularly considering Pipe has a good record at Carlisle.

There isn’t a lot to put me off him – apart from the fact that this is an open looking race.

Certainly, Beg to Differ is handicapped to win it – and he ran well enough last time in a better class race.

The only possible issue I can see with him, is that he might prefer softer ground – but that isn’t definitely the case (it’s just that most of his runs have been on soft ground, so it’s difficult to know how he will handle quicker ground).

Aidan Coleman returning the saddle is a big plus – and he’s won on his only previous outing at the course.
He is likely to be a tough one for Top Wood to beat.

Blakemount is the other one to seriously consider – though he isn’t as well handicapped after his last win and this is a slightly better race.

Cultram Abbey and Carrigdhoun are handicapped to finish along side each other – but I suspect that will be a few lengths behind the principals.

At a best price of 5/1, Top Wood is possibly worth a small risk – though the better bet maybe in the ‘without Beg to Differ’ market…

Lingfield

4:00 Taking this race at face value, I think Onderun has a very good chance…

He’s a relatively young horse, who seems to be progressing with racing – and he showed on his penultimate outing, that he’s got what it takes to go close in a race such as this.

That was when he finished fourth in the Sussex National at Plumpton.

On the back of that run, he was made favourite on his most recent outing at Wincanton.

However, he was never travelling that day and was pulled up.
Interestingly, that was the second time he had been tried in cheek pieces – and the second time he had been pulled up. Coincidence ?!?!

Whatever, the handicapper has dropped him 2lb for that run, so he is clearly nicely handicapped based on his Plumpton run.
More than that, he has a very good record at Lingfield – his 2 runs at the course resulting in a win and a second.
It’s a slightly unusual course – so good course form is a definite bonus.

In short, everything seems to be in place for Onderun to run a really big race.
He may even be able to win – but he faces some potentially dangerous rivals.

In truth, non of them are as solid as him – but a few of them are more than capable of winning a race such as this.

Top weight, Summary Justice is potentially very well handicapped – and the fitting of blinkers to a 13 year old for the first time, is an interesting move !

Finish the Story dotted up over hurdles last time, when very well backed. Today will be tougher – but he is clearly in good form, will relish the test and he is another who is potentially well handicapped.

Coolking could also be dangerous following a win last time – and having transferred into Gary Moores Stable, in the interim.

I’ll be a little surprised if all 3 run well – but even more so, if non of them do…

Amberjam is the progressive one in the line up: whilst Battle Dust and Krakatoa King could both run big races.

Like I said, it’s not an easy one !
However, there is little doubt in my mind, that Onderun is the really solid option – and 7/1 is a fair price.
The sensible thing is to back him EW, in case one of the above mentioned is on their ‘A’ game and prove too much for him to cope with.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

DT Ling 4:00 Onderun 0.25pt EW 7/1

Mentions

Carl 2:30 Hartside EW

Carl 3:00 The Cobbler Swayne (O )

Carl 4:10 Top Wood (O )