Daily write-up - Feb 2nd

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Wincanton (probably) and Towcester in the UK – plus Thurles in Ireland.

There isn’t much of interest from a betting perspective at Thurles – and whilst there are a couple of decent races at both Wincanton and Towcester, the prospect of very heavy ground makes me wary about getting heavily involved…

Apparently, there was a lot of rain at Wincanton yesterday, and it has been followed by more over night.

If they are able to race, the ground is likely to be truly desperate.

That was the situation yesterday at Hereford, and it then tends to become a case of survival of the fittest.

Obviously it’s difficult to know who is going to come out on top, when that happens – though certain trainers do tend to do particularly well, when the mud is flying (Venetia being a prime example !).

Consequently there are no tips today – and as there are no eye catchers running either – we are left with just a couple of Mentions to keep an eye on…

Here are my thoughts on the days main races.

Wincanton

3:10 I was half tempted to take a chance on Sirop be Menthe in this – and if I could have got 20/1, I probably would have done.

He’s a horse I latched on to last season – and I’m sure he needs heavy ground to be perform at his best.
Certainly, he put up a really big performance when runner up to a peak form Rayvin Black at Sandown, the last time he encountered really heavy ground and if he runs to that level of form today, then he will set a fair standard.

He was running over 2 miles at Sandown – whilst his 2 most recent runs have been over virtually 3 miles.

He splits the difference today – and I think that is probably ideal for him.

If this were an ordinary race for the grade, then I would be very interested in him – but there is a chance that the race will be significantly better than your average class 3 handicap…

Certainly, it contains 3 runners, who really could be anything.

River Frost, Copain de Class and Clondaw Shaw are all unexposed novices who can only muster 8 runs over hurdles between them.

It’s impossible to get a handle on how good they are – but they all have top connections.

Ofcouse, there is a distinct possibility that at least 1 of them won’t actually be that well handicapped – and the heavy ground could also be a leveller.

However, I will be a little surprised if all 3 of them ‘disappoint’…

The answer is probably an EW bet – and fingers crossed that at least 8 go to post (heavy ground can sometimes result in multiple withdrawals).

At 20/1 (4/1 to place), then Sirop de Menthe would be a tip – but at 16/1 (3/1 to place), the margin is much tighter.

He is maybe one to keep an eye on, in the lead up to the off - if the place terms remain the same and a decent price can be secured…

3:45 Bennys Mist is the one that interests me most in this.

He has been in poor form so far this season – but is tried in first time blinkers today.

The interesting angle with that, is that when he first wore a hood, he ran a huge race to finish second to Ma Filleule at Aintree. He did similar when the hood was reapplied, having been left of for a few runs.

The suggestion is that he responds positively to the fitting of head gear…

He also has decent course form at Wincanton (he won this race 2 seasons ago) – whilst he revels in heavy ground.

His disappointing runs so far this season, have seen him drop back to a mark just 1 pound higher than the one he was last successful from – so he is certainly handicapped to go close, if the blinkers do liven him up.

The other one worthy of a mention, is Rouge et Blanc.
He is the complete outsider of the field – and is now 12 years old.

However, he is another who relishes heavy ground – and actually finished second to Bennys Mist in the 2015 running of this race.

Towcester

2:45 This is a very open looking race – and victory for any of 9 runners wouldn’t come as a great surprise.

I can see interesting angles for both Pinnacle Peter and the Artful Cobbler considering both are quite big prices,

The former is being stepped up in trip for his first run in a handicap, having shown some promise last time at Chepstow; whist the latter sports first time cheek pieces and is now off a mark just 5lb higher than the one he dotted up from at Leicester, 12 months ago (the last time he encountered heavy ground).
Strong market support for either, could well be significant.

The 3 current market leaders: What a Diva; Minella Garthering and Pink Gin, all ran well on their most recent outings and set a fair standard.

It’s not easy to choose between them – but their prices are quite tight.

Scooby, Deckers Delight and Quarry Wizard can all be given a chance as well – so probably a race just watched…

3:55 I quite liked the look of Winston Churchill, the last time he ran.

However, that was on his seasonal debut at Exeter – and he was a massive drifter (6/1 early, out to 25/1).
Sure enough, he ran as if needing the race today – and whilst I would expect him to strip a lot fitter today, the 3 mile trip will stretch his stamina – particularly carrying top weight, in very heavy ground.

If it weren’t for the fact that he doesn’t really like soft ground (!), I could be quite keen on Flugzeug.

He is well handicapped; has a low weight – plus a 10lb claimer; and ran well on his most recent outing.

However, it will be surprising if he can overcome the ground (that said, it is a little surprising that he is being allowed to run on it).

Trehan Cross is probably the most likely winner – but he is also the favourite and plenty short enough at 11/4.
At a bigger price, then I could definitely give a chance to Shy John.
He wasn’t in good form when last seen – but has dropped to a very attractive mark.

If a recent spell in the pointing field has perked him up, he could go very close.

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.

Tips

None

Mentions

Winc 3:10 Sirop de Menthe (O )

Winc 3:40 Bennys Mist (S)