Daily write-up - Feb 19th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Ffos Las and Market Rasen in the UK – plus Navan in Ireland.

As is often the case on a Sunday, the days best racing takes place on the west side of the Irish sea.

Navan hosts 3 Graded events – and whilst they aren’t really betting races, they should all be interesting to watch.

It’s more mundane fayre at both Ffos Las and Market Rasen – though I did think I had found a tip at the former.

Unfortunately however, it was declared a non runner, this morning.

Apparently it had a temperature – which was presumably down to the pressure of having to run very well, but not actually being allowed to win !
We really should spare a thought for the horses that are TVB tips..!!

As a consequence, it is quiet day, with just a couple of Mentions and a couple of eye catchers.

Here are my thoughts on the main races.

Navan

2:40 Identity Thief should really win this.

He was different class to todays rivals, over hurdles – and won well on his first two outings over fences.
However, he’s failed to complete on his 2 subsequent runs – and that’s not really the recent form you want from a 6/4 shot !

If everything goes right for him today, he will probably be too classy for his rivals – but I certainly couldn’t get involved with him at that kind of price…

Ballyoisin is the obvious one to take him on with.

He hasn’t got the form in the book – but has got massive potential.

However, he too is a very short price, so if I were to get involved with the race, I would probably take a tiny speculative risk on Tully East.

He was a fair sort over hurdles – and looked set to make a better chaser.

He disappointed last time – but that was in a grade 1 event at Leopardstown (in which Identity Thief was pulled up).

If Identity Thief fails to fire again: and Ballyoisin doesn’t live up to his reputation, then Tully East is capable of getting the better of Ball D’arc.

It’s not really the logic for a ‘proper’ bet though !!

3:10 Sutton Place was hugely impressive last time, on his seasonal debut at Naas.

He cantered all over Supersundae that day - and if he stays the extra 5 furlongs today, he will take a bit of beating.

However, his stamina isn’t guaranteed – and you don’t want to be taking too many chances with an 8/11 shot.

Renneti is the second best horse in the race, on official ratings – but he too is unproven over todays trip.
That said, he’s effective over 2 miles on the flat, so based on that, he could quite possibly improve for the extra distance.

The issue with him is that he’s a bit temperamental – and not actually guaranteed to start the race !

De Plotting Shed has no shortage of stamina – but probably won’t be quick enough.

If there is a bet in the race, it is probably Supersundae EW – as he has no quirks and should find conditions ideal.

At a bigger price, then Thomas Hobson should also appreciate conditions – and whilst jumping is his Achilles heal, he might be still able to sneak into the frame

3:40 Just a few words on Mad Brian in this, as he’s a horse who I’ve been half following all season.

He ran a fair race last time over fences – and also when hurdling, 3 runs back, over todays course and distance.

In truth, he is almost certainly in decline. I wouldn’t be too surprised if he were to show up well today - though I would be very surprised if he were to win (and even a little surprised if he were to place).

Rightownthemiddle and Nicoles Milan, dominate the betting and the race is most likely to be won by one of them.

At a slightly bigger price, Dounikos looks interesting – though he would need to bounce back from a disappointing run last time.

4:10 Anibale Fly looks the most likely winner of this – but he has to give 3lb to all of his opponents and that doesn’t leave much margin for error.

Acapella Bourgois appears his most dangerous rival – assuming he stays the 3 mile trip…

Derek O Connor is a really eye catching booking for Edwulf – and he should go well, provided his jumping holds up (he is inclined to miss out the odd fence)

Whilst Road to Respect looks the best of those at bigger prices…

Again, finding a bet in the race isn’t easy.

Jetstream Jack is likely to travel strongly, so he could be worth considering as a pre-race back to lay in running. However, he’s another one not guaranteed to stay 3 miles.
Bellow Mome should stay the trip – but probably isn’t good enough to win.
That said he may well be capable of getting placed…

Ffos Las

2:50 I had hoped to tip Polkarenix in this – but he’s been declared a non runner.

He was the outsider of the field – but I’m sure he could have gone close.

However, we will have to wait for another day to find out…

In his absence, interest in the race now revolves around Keep Moving.

He was an eye catcher 3 runs ago at Newbury and gets his last chance as such, this afternoon…

He’s not performed too badly on his 2 most recent runs – and I suspect that will be the case again this afternoon.

Certainly I think the Ffos Las track will suit him better than Ludlow did last time – and this now looks a very winnable race.

My feeling is that he would benefit from a step up in trip – but that is even more true for most of his rivals today.

At 7/2 he’s probably not a bad price – but my appetite for getting involved in the race after Polkarenix’s defection, is limited…

3:50 Little Jon looks the one to beat in this.
He bounced back to form last time at Newbury, having shown very little for more than a year.

As a result of that, he is now potentially well treated and he should have no issue with todays conditions.

He’s a best price of 7/2 – and whilst that is difficult to argue with, it holds limited appeal in a race where 3 or 4 of the others can also be given a chance.
Chief amongst those, is Pearl Swan.
He’s been running well over fences recently, and doesn’t appear badly handicapped.

The issue with him is also the price - as he’s even shorter in the betting than Little Jon !

Abbeygrey is the potential fly in the ointment.
He was off the track for a long time but has performed well in lesser races, since his return to action.

If you can get a big enough price (double figures), he might be worth a small risk.

Certainly, I would rather have him than Bob Ford.
He was an eye catcher 3 runs ago over hurdles – and whilst he is better over fences, he also prefers much softer ground than he is likely to get.
He’s been popular in the market – presumably because he is potentially well handicapped and has winning course form – but I don’t think todays race will provide enough of a stamina test for him.

At a really big price, Beforeall is quite interesting.
He should have no issue with conditions – and is also potentially well handicapped.

He’s another who hasn’t shown any worthwhile form for a long time – but if he is well backed, I would definitely take notice.

Market Rasen

3:00 This is a very trappy looking race, in which it is difficult to find an angle…

In receipt of a significant weight for age allowance, it is not too surprising that the 4 year old Castafiore has been made favourite - but 2/1 looks plenty short enough against a number of rivals who have plenty of potential.

Caius Marcius, Dream Berry and Master of Finance could all be a fair bit better than their current marks: whilst it is also possible to make cases for Aislabie and Top of the Glas.

If I were to get involved with the race, I would probably take a chance on Master of Finance.

He is a decent flat horse – and his rating of 95 suggests he could be become a 140 rated hurdler.

His 4 outings over hurdles have resulted in him getting a mark of 121 for his handicap debut.

Whilst that is fair based on his hurdles form – it could significantly under-estimate him, based on his flat form.

He’s the only runner Malcolm Jefferson sends to Market Rasen today – and one of only 2 rides for Brian Hughes.

At 7/1 in a place, he could be worth a small interest…

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

None

Mentions

Ffos 3:50 Little Jon (P )

MR 3:00 Master of Finance (O )

Eye Catchers

Ffos 2:50 Keep Moving

Ffos 3:50 Bob Ford