Daily write-up - Feb 12th

There are 3 NH meetings today: at Exeter and Sedgefield in the UK – plus Leopardstown in Ireland.

There is nothing of interest at Sedgefield – but the 2 other cards are excellent.

Leopardstown host no less than 4 Grade 1 events, in what is effectively Cheltenham trials day for the Irish.

Unfortunately, they are all races to watch and learn from, rather than bet in – but they will certainly be worth watching closely…

The Exeter card is more punter friendly – and I’ve decided to tip in one of the races.

I’ve adopted a split stake strategy rather than going EW on one of the horses – as the race does have an unpredictable feel to it…

In addition to the Tips, there are a few Mentions – and no less than 5 eye catchers, running at Exeter.

Here are my thoughts on the main races…

Leopardstown

2:30 Bapaume has been installed favourite for this, on the back of his win at Leopardstown over Christmas.
That was his second run in Ireland - and he showed improvement that day, to reverse the form of his debut run with Landofhopeandglory.

He may be good enough to win again today – but I suspect his position at head of the betting is due in no small part to his connections (Mullins, Ricci and Walsh)…

If I were to get involved with the race, I would be more likely to side with one of the 2 mares: Meri Devi and Dinaria Des Obeaux.

They both receive a 7lb sex allowance from the geldings in the race, and that could tip the balance.

Choosing between them is nearly impossible, however...
They both come from big stables (Mullisn nad Ellito respectively) and have both won their only race in Ireland.

Dinaria des Obeaux hacked up in a weak maiden at Cork (clocking decent figures); whilst Meri Devi won a much stronger maiden at Leopardstown over Christmas (beating Housesofparliament).

The early betting doesn’t help particularly either, as both are 7/2 shots.

I suspect one of them will drift a little, and at 4/1 or bigger, I might be prepared to take a small risk…

3:00 The current situation with Irish racing is summed up beautifully in this race: Willie Mullins trains 6 of the 10 runners – and Gordon Elliot 3 of the remaining 4 !

Their domination – particular at the highest level – borders on unhealthy and makes it impossible to get involved with a race such as this…

In fairness, most of their runners do run on their merits – but even so, it makes finding an angle, very difficult…

Needless to say, Saturnas (the Mullins apparent number 1 – with Ruby on board), looks to be the one to beat in this: with Brelade (the apparent Elliot number 1 – with Geraghty on board), probably his main danger…

If I were to get involved with the race, I might take a chance on Bacardys.
He was a top class bumper horse last season (he finished third in the Cheltenham bumper – and won the Aintree one).
14/1 looks like a very good price.

Indeed, I may well have taken a risk if Paul Townend was riding – but Patrick Mullins in the saddle (and unable to claim his allowance), which is off putting…

3:30 Bleu et Rouge is the one that interests me most in this.
He won the novice hurdle on this card, 12 months ago, beating todays race favourite, Bellshill.

Generally, based on hurdles form he would have a very good chance - however, there is a big question mark over his ability to jump a fence.

He won over todays course on his chasing debut – despite putting in a shoddy round of jumping.

He was then made favourite for the Irish Arkle, also at Leopardstown, at the end of January – but got no further than the third fence, before dislodging Barry Geraghty (he also made a mistake at the second).

It would be very difficult to support a horse with that kind of record – but if he does manage to jump round cleanly, I think he’s the one to beat…

That said, this is a tough race.

I was very impressed by Our Duke over Christmas – though I’m not sure he will appreciate dropping back in trip by half a mile today.

In fact, he might struggle to confirm the form of that race with Disko.
That one was still in front jumping the last, but was collared close home by Our Duke.

All of this ignores Bellshill – and despite a few reverses (including the defeat to Bleu et Rouge), he is clearly a very talented horse and conditions do look perfect for him today.

Like I say, a tough race to call !

4:00 Having won the past 2 renewals of this race, Carlingford Lough goes for the hat-trick today – and he may well pull it off…

He’s got an inconsistent profile – but when he’s on song, he is very good and I suspect that John Keily will have him on song this afternoon.

Don Poli is the one to beat, based on his back to form run in the Lexus at Christmas.

However, he is a horse I now struggle to have confidence in (he had a number of very hard races in his younger days and I suspect they have left a mark)…

Despite being 10, Empire of Dirt is massively progressive.

That ‘s mainly because he has now figured out how to jump a fence cleanly !

Whether he is up to todays test, remains to be seen – but he deserves his place in the line up.

Minella Rocco is also really interesting. I’ve put him up for the Gold cup in the forum and a big run today will doubtless see his price for that race tumble.
He beat Native River at Cheltenham last year – and was going to finish second to Many Clouds at Aintree last time, before taking a bone-shaking fall.

If he can bounce back, he could be good enough to win this…

All this said, the one who interests me most, is Road to Riches…

I half fancied him for the Lexus at Christmas, but Noel Meade said he would come on for the run (and he did appear to need it).

I suspect today has always been the target – and the fitting of first time cheek pieces is very interesting.
On better ground, he would be a tip – but he does perform best on good ground.
I guess he might get away with it – but I fear he will struggle to get home…

My suggestion would be a pre race back to lay in running (he may try and make all) - leaving either a free bet or taking a profit on the race.

Exeter

2:50 This race probably isn’t quite as competitive as the numbers would suggest…

There are 3 horses returning from huge absences: plus a few others who can be safely dismissed, for one reason or another…

One of those is Lady of Longstone, who was an eye catcher on her most recent run.

However, that was over 2 months ago – and she won’t appreciate todays very soft ground.

She likes to lead and whilst I would expect her to race prominently, she is likely to face a lot of competition for the lead (which won’t be a good thing for her).

I think Solstice Star will probably win that particular battle – but he is most unlikely to get home…

There is also a second eye catcher in the race in the shape of Barney Dwan.
He has already run 3 times as an eye catcher – but was retained on the list in the hope he might go back over fences.

However, it looks like that is being shelved for a season – and I wouldn’t fancy him as much over hurdles (though he could still run well today).

In terms of the race winner, then I would be inclined to focus on Ballymalin, Impulsive Star and Eamon an Cnoic.

All 3 are progressing rapidly – and I suspect that one of them will come home first today.
If forced to side, I would go with Impulsive Star…

At a bigger price, I wouldn’t be completely surprised to see Clondaw Cian bounce back from a disappointing run last time at Warwick.

He had looked good on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham and if back to that level of form would have a definite chance this afternoon.

3:20 This is the first leg of the 2017 Veterans series – and is an exceptionally strong race of its type…

In part, that is due to the fact that horses who turned 10 in the new year, are now able to compete – and some of them are still virtually at their prime.

It’s a couple of 10 year olds that interest me most, in the shape of Katkeau and Harry Topper.

Katkeau has interesting form figures in so much as he’s pulled up on 3 of his last 5 runs !

However, he has also won 3 of his last 8…

Each way wouldn’t seem to be a good call with him !

His most recent victory was last April, when he got the better of Gas Line Boy at Uttoxeter. That is decent form and Katkeau runs from a mark just 5lb higher today…

He most recent outing was in the Welsh National.
He travelled quite nicely that day – but didn’t get home and was eventually pulled up.

I’m sure he will be better suited by todays shorter trip…

Harry Topper also ran in the Welsh National – and he was also pulled up.

He didn’t travel as well as Katkeau in the race – but he will still within striking distance turning in, which was a good effort, considering he has been off the course for nearly 2 years prior to that run.

There is a lot of guesswork involved with him – but he was a borderline Gold Cup horse at his peak and yet runs off a mark of just 144 today.

He will relish the soft ground – and the 3 mile trip is perfect.
If he retains most of his old ability, he will laugh at his rivals this afternoon (as he saunters past them !).

Clearly, neither Katkeau nor Harry Topper could be considered a rock solid selection – but both will have ideal conditions today and are more than capable of winning a race such as this, if close to their peak.

At the odds available, I think it is worth a small risk on both – with the greater stake on Katkeau (who is the bigger price - and has less to prove).

3:50 There are only 4 runners in this – but 2 of them are eye catchers !

Tea for Two caught the eye at Ascot, back in October - before his heroic run for us in the King George at Boxing day.

Based on that run, he is the one to beat – and he should be perfectly suited by todays test.

Henri Parry Morgan is the other eye catcher.
He caught the eye in the Hennessy – and whilst he has already run 3 times since then, he has been retained on the list, because he’s not had chance to prove himself in perfect conditions.

He’ll have his work cut out today as well – but conditions should be fine and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run well.

In truth, it’s an impossible race to get involved in, not least because of the presence of Alary.

He joined Colin Tizzard with a huge reputation – but disappointed on his only run, at Haydock.

However, he apparently wasn’t well that day, so the run can probably be forgiven.

It really is anyone’s guess how this race will pan out.

If Alary is as good as was being suggested prior to Haydock, he will probably win: if he’s not, Tea for Two should win.

That said, Henri Parry Morgan has some good form – and whilst Carraig Mor will doubtless need the run, he too was very useful a couple of seasons back
Definitely a watching race !

4:20 Minella Charmer is the final eye catcher running today.

He caught the eye when falling last time, at Wetherby early in December.
He’s not been seen since then, which is a bit of a concern – but if he returns in good shape, he will take a bit of beating today.

That said, it’s not easy to choose between the top 4 in the betting.

So at the prices, if I were to get involved with the race, it would most likely be with Bivouac, as he possibly represents a bit of value at 6/1.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

BRT Exe 3:20 Katkeau 0.25pt win 14/1

BRT Exe 3:20 Harry Topper 0.125pt win 10/1

Mentions

Leop 3:00 Bacardys (O )

Leop 3:30 Bleu et Rouge (C )

Leop 4:00 Road to Riches (C )

Exe 2:50 Impulsive Star (P )

Eye Catchers

Exe 2:50 Lady of Longstone

Exe 2:50 Barney Dwan

Exe 3:50 Tea for Two

Exe 3:50 Henri Parry Morgan

Exe 4:20 Minella Charmer