Daily write-up - Feb 27th

There are 2 NH meetings today: at Plumpton and Ayr.

I have to admit, I had mixed feelings watching Camping Ground bolt up yesterday…

I know a lot of you were on him, which was great: and I made him a Fair bet, so that was another positive.

However, I really should have tipped him…

I think the trouble is, I’ve become disillusioned with the early morning tipping, on all but the biggest days – and I didn’t expect his price to last.

The fact it did, made me think that he would probably need the run.

This game can certainly mess with your mind !

Clearly, he didn’t need the run: and with Lil Rockerfeller absent and Different Gravey under-performing, he hacked up (as his form suggested he might).

Not exactly an opportunity missed – but not one fully exploited, either !

I was asked yesterday if I would send out the Fair bets by email – and whilst I don’t want to do that just yet (there are still teething issues to be worked on), if you do want to receive an email notification when I post them, it is easy enough to achieve.

Just go into the forum: click on ‘options’ – select ‘subscribe by email’ – and then tick the appropriate box…

You can do that for either the ‘Fair Bets’ sub forum – or the entire TVB forum !

Anyway, on to today.

Obviously, with it being a Monday, I was tempted to take the day off.

However, there are a few interesting races at Plumpton – and one at Ayr – so I decided to produce a write-up.

There are no tips on the day (for the reason stated earlier !) – but a few Mentions and a couple of eye catchers…

Here are my thoughts.

Plumpton

2:35 This is a very trappy race, but assuming he stays at a decent price, I’m going to struggle to resist a small play on Polkarenix.

He was an eye catcher on his most recent run at Wetherby, in a stronger race than todays.

He was then entered to run at Ffos Las, last Sunday (where I intended to tip him) – but was pulled out on the morning of the race, with a temperature.

I have mixed feeling on him running here instead.

I think Plumpton will suit him better than Ffos Las – but the Ffos Las race looked weaker (though the winner of that race, was actually quite impressive).
The trouble with todays race is that it is very difficult to quantify the opposition.

Mr Fitzroy and City Supreme are both making their chasing debuts; whilst Bagging Turf has only run twice over fences – winning on the first occasion and falling on the second.

Even Golan Dancer isn’t easy to get a handle on – as he too has been hurdling recently (though he has jumped fences in the past).

To an extent, I think you have just got to ignore the opposition and look at Polkarenix.

He should be suited by todays test of 2m4f on reasonable ground – and I suspect he is well handicapped.

Clearly there is plenty of guesswork/speculation involved with him – but I think he is worth a small play, assuming a double figure price can be secured…

3:35 Sea Wall is the second eye catcher running today – but I’m not so keen on his chances…

He caught my eye 3 runs ago – but has disappointed twice since then, in ideal conditions.

Conditions aren’t as good for him today (he wants heavy ground), so it’s difficult to think that he’s going to strike this afternoon.

Again, this is a tricky race to evaluate.

Gary Moore saddles 3 of the runners – and whilst non of them appear particularly fancied, any late money could well be significant.

I would also be sensitive to any market support for handicap debutant, Goldslinger.

Dragoon Guard and Shimba Hills have obvious chances – but I prefer the claims of the Nigel Hawke trained, Camron de Chaillic.

He ran really well on his handicap debut at Taunton, before disappointing at Huntingdon, last time.

Blinkers are applied this afternoon – and they could easily make a difference.

There is a question mark over the ground, as he’s performed best on good – but I wouldn’t expect it to be too soft.

4:05 Coolking is likely to be all the rage for this, following his win in the Surrey National, last Monday.
That was a massive performance – and I would be a little worried about his ability to perform to a similar level, just 7 days later.

More than that, todays race will be quite a different test to last weeks 3m4f in the mud.

I do wonder whether he will be quick enough – and there is also the chance that Saroque will harass him for the lead.

On balance, I feel he should be taken on – though there are limited options with which to do so…

Saroque is one – but he looks to be in decline.

Lost Legend is another – but he has shown nothing for 12 months. That said, if he is properly backed (he could go off around 5/2), then he is more than capable of winning.

However, without any knowledge of market moves, I would be inclined to take a risk on Replacement Plan.

He was pulled up in the mud at Uttoxeter last time – but that can be forgiven.
Prior to that, he would probably have won at Wincanton, if he had not fallen at the second last.

He gets in with a feather weight today – and his jockey takes off a further 7lb.

He’s going to feel like he is running loose !

A record of 1 win in 33 races under rules, means he is not one to be going mad about – but at a price, he could be worth a small risk.

Ayr

4:45 I can’t help feeling that Shades of Midnight should be different class to his rivals in this…

He won a similar race off a 2lb lower mark, 12 moths ago – and whilst he has come up short in his 5 races since then, they have all been better quality contests.

He’s not been disgraced either, with his most recent effort at Uttoxeter, behind Le Rocher, looking like hot form.

The winner, ran well in the National Spirit yesterday; and Shades of Midnight finished fourth, sandwiched between The Gipper and Theatrebar, both of whom have won in the past few days.

Strong Economy and Ryedale Racer seem to be his most dangerous opponents.

In fairness, the former isn’t easy to quantify – and does look progressive. He could be worth saving stakes on.

The latter has appeared to have his limitations exposed on his 2 most recent runs – though it is still relatively early days with him.

The others have all got some serious question marks over them – though Runswick Royal could be very well handicapped and I would be concerned if he were popular in the market (though sometimes, these horses are popular in the market simply because they are well handicapped !).

Shades of Midnight has near perfect conditions tomorrow – and really should run his race.

If he does so, then it is quite likely that he will win.

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

None

Mentions

Plum 3:35 Camron de Chaillac (C )

Plum 4:05 Replacement Plan (S )

Ayr 4:45 Shades of Midnight (P )

Eye Catchers

Plum 2:35 Polkarenix

Plum 3:35 Sea Wall