Daily write-up - Feb 22nd

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Doncaster and Ludlow in the UK – plus Punchestown in Ireland.

It’s not bad racing for a Wednesday – though you can sense that Cheltenham is on the horizon…

The racing news yesterday was dominated by the announcement that Thistelcrack will miss the Gold Cup.

There are going to be a lot of big names absent from this years festival – which is a shame, considering how the season tends to revolve around that week.

I think it just goes to show how hard it is to keep these top class animals at a peak – and also sound.

With regard to today: then rain is back in the air, which is rarely a good thing.
I was really surprised at how soft the ground was riding at Carlisle and Lingfield on Monday – though I wouldn’t expect anything like those conditions today at Doncaster – or even Ludlow (though it may be on the soft side at the latter track).

Punchestown is a different matter. The forecast is soft to heavy – and I’ve got not reason to disbelieve that !

I’ve found another mid week tip – and there are a few Mentions – plus a couple of eye catchers.

So quite a busy day.

Here are my thoughts…

Doncaster

3:15 This is a tough race to call…

Some Kinda Llama has the strongest handicap form – but has been off the track for 81 days and sports a first time tongue tie.

That could be interpreted in a few ways – so I’d keep an eye on the market with him.

Skipthecuddles is probably the most interesting runner, as he is making his handicap debt after a couple of decent runs in novice events.

His mark looks quite high – but presumably Graeme McPherson thinks it is reasonable (or he would be running him in novice events instead).

The Tailgator and Muthabir are the 2 ‘safe bets’ in the race – and I would expect at least one of them to be placed.

They ran against each other last time, with the former coming out on top.

At the revised weights, the form should be confirmed – though there may not be much between them.

First Fandango is potentially very well handicapped – and was extremely well backed last night.

Cheek pieces are applied for only the second time – and he’s from a stable in decent form.

It he remains well supported to the off, I would expect him to go very close.

The final one worthy of a mention, is Rockys Treasure.
He’s only run twice over hurdles, so the handicapper has effectively had to guess at his opening mark.

The fact he steps up in trip for his handicap debut is interesting – though again, the market will likely advise on his chance.

In summary, this is definitely not a race to get heavily involved in early !

I would expect the market to guide on the chance of Some Kinda Llama, Skipthecuddles, First Fandango and Rockys Treasure – and that is quite a few runners.

I’ll be a little surprised if one of the 4 doesn’t win though – probably the one that is best backed !!

3:45 The second leg of the 2017 veterans series isn’t quite as competitive as the opening leg, which was run at Exeter 10 days ago – but it is still a fair contest…

Last years winner, Saint Are, sets the standard – and back on his favoured good ground, he is definitely the one to beat, off a mark just 1lb higher than 12 months ago.

However, I am hopeful that Samingarry will be able to do just that…

He’s not badly handicapped on the best of his form (just 2lb higher than his last winning mark): and as he’s only 10 years old, shouldn’t really be in decline.

That said, he had 18 months off the track prior to his seasonal debut in December, so there is a slight question mark over how much ability he retains. However, based on that run, the suggestion is that a fair chunk is still in tact.

That was arguably a better race than todays (as it wasn’t restricted to veterans) and was run over the same course and distance.

Samingarry was still within striking distance turning for home, before understandably, fading out of things up the straight.

He was disappointing on his subsequent run at Cheltenham – but that was on unsuitably soft ground.

I would expect him to be a different proposition today – particularly with first time blinkers deployed.

All this said, the thing that attracts me to him most, is the form of the Nigel Hawke stable.
I have been waiting for his horses to hit some form – and they have done so with a vengeance in the past few days.

Speredeks win at Sandown on Friday, was followed by a double on Monday – and both of his runner yesterday performed better than would have been expected.

Of the other runners in the race, then I suspect the trip will be a bit too far for Astracad, Ericht and possibly Killala Quay.

Whilst Seventh Sky would prefer softer ground – and isn’t particularly well handicapped.

Court by Surprise has recorded a big win over todays course and distance – but that was over 4 years ago and he is probably now in decline.

Blue Kascade doesn’t normally run this class of race, so he may struggle (though is also the most difficult runner to properly assess).

Whilst he’s not water tight, then I think Samingarry has a definite chance - and the form of Nigels Hawkes yard means that he is worth risking at a big price.

Ludlow

2:35 With a straight bat, Deadly Approach is the most interesting one in this.

He was still in the lead - and not definitely beaten, when unshipping his jockey at the third last fence in a similar race to this, over todays course and distance, 4 weeks ago.

It’s not bad form either, as the winner, Un Prophete is now rated 19lb higher…

The trouble is, this could be quite a strong race.

Mercian King and Wade Harper have also both bumped into improvers on their latest outings – and they could well be improving themselves.

The application of cheek pieces to Wade Harper is an interesting move: though I prefer the chances of Mercian King.

Lou Vert and Dr Dunraven represent big stables, and are both making their chasing debut today.

They could literally be anything – though I’m sure the market will guide on their chances…

It’s another race in which would be difficult to get involved without knowing what the market thought.

If nothing is particularly strong in the betting, then I Deadly Approach sets a fair standard – though it is a standard which could well be surpassed…

4:10 Stamp your Feet was an eye catcher last time at Musselburgh.
He finished strongly that day and my feeling was that he could be of interest, given a greater test of stamina (longer trip, stiffer course or softer ground).

He’s running over the same 2 mile trip today: and Ludlow is an equally sharp track. The hopes on the stamina front, therefore rely on the ground being softer…

In truth, it probably will be – but whether it will be sufficiently so, I really don’t know…

There are a few interesting looking runners in the race as well: the likes of Dino Velvet, I’m a Game Changer and Canadian Diamond – so the appeal of Stamp your Feet at 7/1, has to be limited (though I wouldn’t be surprised, if he were to run a fair race).

5:20 Calin du Brizais is no longer an eye catcher – though he did run a big race last time out.

That was Mussleburgh on his return to hurdles, after a couple of disappointing runs over fences.
He was unfancied that day, but was in the process of putting down a challenge, when he stumbled and lost his jockey at the final hurdle.

I don’t know whether he would have won – but he would have gone very close and he runs off the same mark this afternoon.

This is a slightly better race – but only slightly and I would expect him to again run well.
The trouble is, it’s impossible to be confident in these low grade, big field handicaps, as it’s quite possible that there will be something ‘lurking’…

I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off Calin du Brizais - but if you do get involved, then EW is probably the sensible shout…

Punchestown

2:25 It’s a bit of a surprise to see such a high class race on a Wednesday afternoon  - and it could easily have a bearing on the David Nicholson Mares race, at the Cheltenham festival.

Apples Jade is currently a short priced favourite for that contest, and will need to win today in order to maintain her position at the head of that market – but it wont be easy…

That said, conditions will suit her this afternoon: she relishes heavy ground and should have no issue with the trip.
She will also holds a fitness advantage over her main rival Limini.
It’s also hard to imagine that Limini will be given a hard time on her first run since last April and a bigger danger to Apples Jade may come from either Whiteout or Rock on the Moor.

Certainly, on better ground, I could be very interested in the latter – but she does have a marked preference for decent underfoot conditions…

In all probability, Apples Jade will win and thereby confirm her position as favourite for the David Nicholson on race.

However, I might take a tiny chance on Whiteout, as I wouldn’t be surprised to see Paul Townend trying to steal the race from the front.

Certainly, Whiteout is a talented mare – and if her rivals do allow her too much rope, they could end up regretting it…

4:35 Tidy Zag was an eye catcher on his penultimate run at Limerick, before running poorly on his most recent outing at Gowran.

In truth, that wasn’t a huge surprise, as he’s 12 years old now and has clearly had some physical issues.

It’s a similar situation to the one with Mad Brian on Sunday: Tidy Zag once had enough ability to comfortably win a race such as this – but it’s anyones guess, how much of that ability remains…

Actually, that’s probably not true – as was the case on Sunday, someone will likely know if the ability remains – and he will doubtless be backed if that is the case.

However, without that guidance, he’s impossible to recommend – particularly as he is stepping up in trip (which I wouldn’t have thought would particularly suit him).

Aside from him, then Silver Tara is the one that appeals most – though getting involved in a low grade, big field race such as this, would always be a dangerous thing to do…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

DT Donc 3:45 Samingarry 0.25pt win, 0125pt place 14/1

Mentions

Lud 2:35 Deadly Approach (O )

Lud 5:20 Calin du Brizais (O )

Punc 2:25 Whiteout (S )

Eye Catchers

Lud 4:10 Stamp your Feet

Punc 4:35 Tidy Zag