Daily write-up - Feb 17th

There are 2 NH meetings this afternoon: at Sandown and Fakenham.

It’s Royal Artillery Gold Cup day at Sandown – and whilst the big race is no longer the contest it once was, it is still the race to win, for those in the military.

However, jockeyship is key, so it’s not really a race to get seriously involved with, from a betting perspective…

The supporting races on the Sandown card are pretty good though – and they do provide a few potential wagers…

The Fakenham card isn’t quite to interesting – however there are a couple of eye catchers on show there and both look to have decent chances.

Here are my thoughts on the days main races.

Sandown

2:10 Pougne Bobbi was a massively impressive winner of a fair race at Ludlow last week.
On only his second outing over fences, he took apart a decent field – and it’s no surprise that the handicapper reacted by raising him a stone in the weights.
In the circumstances, Nicky Henderson must have felt almost obliged to run him under a 7lb penalty.

Whilst that is understandable – it is also a little worrying.

True, he is theoretically very well handicapped – but I doubt Henderson would be running him in this race if he had the choice.

For a start, he is dropping back in trip, by half a mile – and in addition to that he should be carrying 12st5lb.

That has been reduced by the claim of his conditional jockey - but he is very inexperienced and Sandown is a tricky track to ride.

He may hack up again – but this is a tough race and I can’t have him at 6/4…

Instead, I’m inclined to side with Dream Bolt.

He really impressed me last time, when he was beaten by Grey Gold over todays course and distance.
That was a stronger race than todays – and he was unlucky to bump into a high class horse running under perfect conditions.

Dream Bolt was far from disgraced in finishing second and if he can repeat that form today, I struggle to see him out of the frame.

There is a distinct possibility that Cepage and Speredek will take each other on for the lead – and that will likely suit neither of them.

And whilst Icing on the Cake was a good winner on his penultimate run, he was weak in the betting when an early faller last time, behind Pougne Bobbi. He now has a bit to prove.

The other 4 are all reasonable animals - but I somehow doubt that today will be their day…

I think the race is most likely to be won by either Pougne Bobbi or Dream Bolt – and as you can get almost the same price on the latter to place as you can the former to win, the bet seems quite obvious…

3:15 I think the question here, is whether the strong travelling, clean jumping, Troike Steppes, will be able to fend off the potentially well handicapped, Rathlin Rose…

The latter returned to action in January, after just over 18 months on the sidelines, and ran really well in a hot race at Newbury.

Assuming he improves for that run, then he is the one to beat this afternoon.

However, as it was his first run in a long time, there is a chance he will ‘bounce’ – plus today will be only the third time he has run over fences (the first time, going right handed) and Sandown is a tricky course to jump round…

Troike Steppes is the safer bet.

He strikes me as the ideal ride for an inexperienced jockey – as he is really just a ‘point and shoot’ type of horse.

He will go from the front – and his jumping is generally sound.

It’s hard to see him not running his race – and the 7/4 offered on him in the ‘without Rathlin Rose market seems like a very good bet.

Ardkilly Witness is the only other one of any interest.
He has a good record at Sandown – and is falling down the handicap.

However, that it is because he appears to be regressing…

4:15 This is a tricky race to call, because there are reasons for opposing most of the runners…

Favourite Twenty Eight Guns, is the obvious one, as she is on a steep upward curve.

However, she is 10lb higher than for her last win – and taking on better opposition.
She is also stepped up to 3 miles for the first time, and will need to find some improvement for that.

Pete the Feat is the second favourite – and he comes here on the back of a tenacious win in a very strong veterans final, over today course and distance.

If he can repeat that form he will probably win – however, he had a very tough race that day: is 8lb higher today – and is also 13 years old…

Knight of Noir has a more attractive profile, and he should be ready to produce his best after 2 runs for Neil Mulholland.

However, the absence of Noel Fehily in the saddle doesn’t strike me as a vote of confidence in the horse.

Outside those 3, the cases get even more fragile !
Regal Flow was an eye catcher the last time he ran – but that was 3 months ago and it’s anyone guess what has kept him off the track for so long.
If he returns in peak form, he would have a chance - but I suspect he will benefit from the run…

4:45 I really thought I would be tipping Trans Express in this - but he has been hammered in the early betting.
He opened at 7/1 last night – and I would have been more than happy with anything above 7/2.

However, he’s a general 11/4 shot this morning – and there is no margin in that.

In fairness, it strikes me as about the right price.

I reckon the race can be narrowed down to 4 (Wicked Willy, Mixchievous and Justification are the other 3) – and I think he is just about the most likely winner.
The form of his win at Exeter is extremely strong – however, his disappointing run at Wincanton last time, takes a bit of explaining away…

He’s had 41 days off since then – so maybe there was an issue.

Certainly if he is able to produce a performance similar to the one at Exeter, he will be difficult to beat.

That said, I was taken by both Mixcheivous and Justification, last time.

They finished second and third in a stronger race than todays, over the same course and distance.

It’s difficult to say which one will come out on top today – but it wouldn’t surprise me to see both run well.

I actually think Wicked Willy is the weakest of the 4 principals.

That said, he is still improving, so I wouldn’t be overly keen to dismiss him.

In short, this is not now a race where I can find an angle.

I wanted to be with Trans Express – but his case isn’t watertight, so I think there needs to be something in the price.

When cases can be made for at least 3 of his rivals – then 11/4 is too short…

Fakenham

2:00 A few quick words on Omessa Has, who makes her debut over fences in this.
She caught my eye last time, in a hot handicap hurdle at Kempton, over the Christmas period.
I felt she might be worth following next time – though I expected that would be over hurdles.

In fairness, she might be equally good over fences – in which case she will go very close in this.
However, we are guessing on that score – and she faces a potentially decent rival in the shape of Mr Mix.

The race looks between the pair of them – but the betting reflects that and I couldn’t really be interested in her at 6/5…

3:00 Raktiman is the second eye catcher running on the Fakenham card.

This is actually his 4^th run as an eye catcher: I normally ditch them after 3 runs or a win – but I felt he was worth another go (due to the circumstances surrounding some of his previous runs).

He gets perfect conditions today – and I’m sure he will run a big race, I’m just not sure he will be quite good enough to win…

I guess he might be – and he certainly sets the race standard – its just that 2 or 3 of his rivals may be able to surpass that standard…

I actually expected A Tail of Intrigue to be race favourite, on his debut for Nicky Henderson.

He’s not run for over 2 years – but I’m sure that needn’t be an issue.

However, the betting seems disinterested in him.

If he were to be supported in the market, I would take him very seriously – but if there is no confidence in him, he probably won’t win.
Glengara is a potential improver, on his second run over fences.

He ran well enough on his chasing debut at Doncaster – and if he has progressed from that run, Raktiman will have his work cut out to beat him.

Saffron Wells is another possible improver: whilst it’s not easy to get a proper handle on the 2 other runners.

I was very tempted to take a chance on Raktiman – probably EW.

However, the price isn’t great – and there are just too many possible dangers in the race.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

DT Sand 2:10 Dream Bolt 0.25pt EW 5/1

Mentions

Sand 3:15 Troike Steppes (C )

Sand 4:15 Pete the feat (C )

Sand 4:45 Trans Express (P )

Eye Catchers

Sand 4:15 Regal Flow

Fake 2:00 Omessa Has

Fake 3:00 Raktiman