Daily write-up - Feb 4th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Sandown, Wetherby and Musselburgh in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

All 3 of the UK cards contain races of interest – though there are limited betting opportunities.

The ground is likely to vary massively across the 3 tracks – with the going expected to be close to heavy at Sandown – but good at Musselburgh. Wetherby should slot in, somewhere between the two…

I’ve ended up with just 3 tips on the day – I don’t want to force things and I can’t see many ‘value’ opportunities.

That said, I am pretty keen on the chances of Alvarado at Musselburgh – so hopefully it will be a case of quality over quantity.

There are a couple of eye catchers running – plus the mandatory batch of Mentions – but in truth, it is relatively quiet for a Saturday.

Here are my thoughts on the days main races…

Sandown

1:15 This race looks most likely to go to one of the top 3 horses in the weights – though the market is wise to that.

Bold Henry is the favourite, on the back of a good last time out run behind Garde le Victoire, over todays course and distance.

However he was raised 2lb for that run - and will need to defy a career high mark, if he is to win.

He finished ahead of Bright New Dawn that day – but that one was making his debut for Venetia and travelled strongly through the race.

If he has improved for the run, then he is likely to reverse the form on slightly better terms and is probably the one to beat

However, I am optimistic that Grey Gold will be able to do just that…

He won this race 3 years ago – and has consistently operated at a higher level since then.

The handicapper has relented a little with him this season, as he is now 12 years old.

However, based on his last run at Wetherby it would appear that he is not yet in decline.

He ran Just Cameron to 2 lengths that day – and on ground which would have been on the quick side for him.

On todays more suitable surface – and with that run under his belt – I think he could prove difficult to beat.

Certainly, at an early price of 6/1 (or even 5/1), he was the value in the race…

Of the others: then I suspect that Pearls Legend will find todays ground a bit too soft; whilst Ultragold is probably a few pounds high in the weights (and may benefit from a break).

Dream Bolt won on his seasonal debut at Chepstow – and holds Ubaltique on that run.
He finished a length in front of him that day, but is 4lb better off today, because Ubaltique subsequently won at Haydock.
If there is to be a ‘surprise’, then Dream Bolt is most likely to cause it.

He receives a lot of weight from most of his rivals today – and that could be crucial in heavy ground.

However, he also has to cope with a significant step up in class (from class 4 to class 2) and it remains to be seen whether he is up to that…

2:25 I was half tempted to take a risk on Baron Alco in this…

He is a game and genuine horse, who should be suited by todays track and conditions – and may have the race run to suit…

To an extent, that will depend on how happy he is to sit in behind Amore Alato – as I fully expect that one to make the running (in his first time cheek pieces !).

If Baron Alco is prepared to track Amore Alto, then the race could work out perfectly for him.

That said, as Baron Alco himself likes to lead, there is a chance that he won’t be keen playing second fiddle - and if that happens, things might not turn out so well…

Assuming that’s not the case however then I could see him tracking Amore Alato to the third last – and then taking it up.
The question will be whether any of his 3 other rivals are able to respond.

Unfortunately, all 3 all potentially top class, so there is a real possibility that they will !

That said, I’m not convinced about favourite Clan des Obeaux, over todays track – so I think the dangers are likely to be Le Prezien or Top Notch.

I can certainly see Baron Alco running a big race and going very close – but I just have a feeling that he might get collared close home…

3:00 I was quite tempted by El Terremoto in this.

He only finish third on his most recent run at Haydock – but that was behind Clyne and Le Rocher and both of those have since franked the form.
Prior to that run, El Terremoto had recorded wins at Stratford and Haydock, in the manner of a progressive animal – and whilst his stamina for todays trip is unproven, if he does stay, then I would expect him to go very close.

That said, stamina could well be at a premium this afternoon, so it’s not easy siding with a horse unproven in that respect.

Rolling Dylan proved his stamina when running Shantou Bob close at Christmas - and whilst he is up 8lb today, the fitting of first time cheek pieces might elicit further improvement from him.

However, they will need to, if he is to confirm the form with Desert Sensation; as he is 5lb worse off with him for 5 lengths…

Behind Time is well fancied on the back of his win at Cheltenham in November – but I wonder if he is quite ready for the kind of test he is likely to get today…

Whilst KK Lexion was massively impressive last time – but has a stone higher mark to defy today – plus half a mile further to travel…

My feeling is that Rolling Dylan is just about the most likely winner – with El Terremoto a big danger if he stays.

Desert Sensation is potentially the EW play in the race – though he would need to drift to a double figure price (which he may well do).

3:35 This is a very tight looking race – and it’s not easy to see an angle…

I am most drawn to Otago Trail: he has strong form this season – and should be suited by todays conditions.

On the flip side, he has to give weight away to all of his rivals – and he did have a very tough race, just 2 weeks ago.

Rock the Kasbah would be my second choice.

He has only run 3 times over fences, so it’s not easy to quantify his chasing ability – but based on his hurdles form, he is not badly handicapped.

He should handle the ground – though the trip is a slight concern – as are the Sandown fences, which he will have to jump alongside much more experienced rivals…

If either one of them was a price, I would take a chance – but they are both 9/2 shots and that is quite tight…

I can also understand the support for Beg to Differ.

He ran well in the Welsh National – and could easily improve for that run. Furthermore, he is able to compete from a mark 3lb lower today.

I am not as sold on the cases for Anthony or Irish Saint: and whilst Loose Chips will probably give a bold sight up front, it will be a little surprising if he is good enough to win…

Sandy Beach is potentially interesting – and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him out- run his odds.

At 5/1, with 8 runners, then Otago Trail would be of some interest EW (with your money back if he places) – but that’s not the kind of tip I tend to issue…

Wetherby

1:40 This is a cracking little race – and a chance of sorts can be given to most of the runners.

Oldgrangewood is favourite – and he is a progressive novice who could be a fair bit better than his current mark of 134.

He is arguably unlucky not to be beaten over fences – and should be well suited by todays conditions.

However, a number of Dan Skeltons horses haven’t been firing, following their mid winter flu jab – so supporting him at a relatively short price has limited appeal.

Second favourite, West Wizard, was impressive when winning at Ffos Las last time –but that was a poor race and he’s been raised 8lb for the win.

I also suspect that Davy Russell would be on board if he were really fancied.

Hainan was also an impressive winner last time – but he has been given a harsh looking 15lb rise for that – and drops back in trip today.

Danny Cook will almost certainly try and make all on him and that won’t help Red Spinner, who is another who likes to front run.

The suspicion is that Doctor Phoenix, Somchine and Dresden are all a bit high in the handicap; whilst the only thing that draws me to Dysios is the fact he is actually running in the race !
He is trained in Ireland by Denis Cullen and it seems a little strange to bring over a horse with little obvious chance of winning – though I would get suspicious if he was well backed…

By process of elimination, I am left with Atirelarigo.

The first thing to say about him, is that he is risky – a fall and an unseat in 2 of his last 3 runs, testify to that.
However, sandwiched in between those runs, was a good victory at Chepstow – and based on that run, he has every chance today.

He comfortably beat Tornado in Milan that day – and that one came out and won earlier this week at Wincanton (admittedly on different ground).

Atirelarigo was given a 5lb rise for the win – but that doesn’t look overly harsh and there is a distinct chance that he is a fair bit better than his current mark of 124.

Whether he will be able to demonstrate that today, probably depends on how well he jumps.

But if he does jump well, I think he is capable of going very close indeed.

2:45 Calett Mad sets the standard in this, based on his last time out win at Taunton.

That was in a handicap – but he was impressive and is now rated 148 as a consequence.

Furthermore, he has plenty of untapped potential, so could be even better than that mark.

Missed Approach appears to be his main rival, based on both his hurdles form and his 2 runs over fences.

He disappointed in the first of those – but then underwent a wind operation and won well at Lingfield, last time.

Like Calett Mad, he has plenty of potential – and it should be an interesting battle between the 2.

The Dutchman looks third best in the race – but probably 10lb shy of the principals, so it will be a little surprising if he manages anything better than a place.

If the ground were to get really heavy, I could see Baywing outrunning his odds – but he does seems to need very soft ground and he probably won’t get that.

3:20 I was initially quite keen on Milborough for this – but I’ve now cooled on him…

He was sent over hurdles for his most recent run at Carlisle – and won well.

From a pure handicapping perspective, he could well be up to defying the 8lb rise for that win, as it still leaves him on a mark lower than he has won from over fences.
Furthermore, the booking of Lizzy Kelly strikes me as very interesting.

She has not ridden for Ian Duncan before – and Milborough is her only mount on the card. Her 5lb claim will offset a good deal of the weight rise that he incurred for his win.

However, the form of the Carlisle win, just doesn’t look that strong – so it may well have been a poor race. Furthermore, Milborough was not a massively impressive winner - he just ground out a victory.

Also, he was very strong in the market that day – and that doesn’t seem to be the case today (so far, at least).

With the doubts over the form – and the apparent lack of stable confidence, I’m not so keen to get involved.

Top weight, Ami Desbois, sets the standard – and if he runs to the level of form that saw him finish second to Wholestone at Cheltenham, he is likely to win.

However, Point the Way and Westendorf are both of some interest…

The former disappointed last time in the fixed brush hurdle final at Haydock – but was well fancied for that race and has been given plenty of time to recover (or have a breathing operation !); whilst the latter makes his handicap debut today, but has strong form in novice events and looks to be the main reason that Aiden Coleman is riding at Wetherby.

I suspect the market will guide with this race – so without that knowledge, it is best just to watch…

Musselburgh

2:05 I’m very keen on Alvarado in this…

Not only does the form book say he’s got an excellent chance of winning – but the ‘subtle’ signs are extremely positive as well…

In terms of the form book, then he clearly must have every chance, running of a mark of 135 – which is the same mark that he ran off, when runner up in last season Scottish Grand National.

He is a horse who needs decent ground – which is presumably why he has been sent such a long way for todays race (the ground at Musselburgh is invariably good) – whilst he will also relish todays marathon trip.

He was a surprising faller last time, over the Aintree fences – but apparently is now fully recovered from that spill.

However, it is the subtle signs which really seal the deal for Alvarado…

He finished 4^th in the 2014 & 2015 Grand National – but missed out on running in last seasons race (which is why he ran in the Scottish equivalent).
He is going to miss out again this season as well – unless he wins today and gets himself a rise in the handicap before the official Grand National weights are published in just over a weeks time.

It is very interesting that Paddy Brennan is making the effort to travel up to Musselburgh in order to ride him.

The horse is normally ridden by Paul Moloney – but he is currently injured and Brennan has been booked.

That in itself is not surprising – but the fact he has given up a number of rides at Sandown in order to get on board, does seem significant.

Apart from the fences and 12 rivals, the only thing that concerns me is the course.

Alvarado tends to be ridden patiently in his races – and there is a chance that he might get caught out by the relatively quick Musselburgh track (even over 4 miles !).
That said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brennan ride him more positively than Moloney does, so that may not be an issue.

In the TVB world, he is effectively a maximum bet – with a bit of the stake on the place part as cover, just in case he does find things happening a little quickly for him…

2:40 Calin du Brizais is the first of 2 eye catchers running on the Musselburgh card.

He caught the eye 3 runs ago at Chepstow, before disappointing at Market Rasen and then taking a heavy fall at Wincanton.
He reverts to hurdles today – presumably in an attempt to restore his confidence.

He wasn’t on the eye catchers list for his hurdling prowess – though he is not badly handicapped in that discipline and there is a chance he could run well (particularly as his stable are starting to find a bit of form).

However, this is not a race that I have a strong view on – so I’ll have to leave it to you to choose whether or not to get involved with him…

3:15 Optimus Prime is the second eye catcher running today.
He caught the eye last time on his UK debut at Huntingdon. He tanked though the race that day – and in the circumstances did really well to finish second.

However, that run was nearly 3 months ago – and you have to think that all hasn’t quite gone to plan, for him to have been off the track for such a long time.

That coupled with the question mark over the generally well-being of Dan Skeltons runners, is sufficient to stop me from getting involved.

In fact, if I was to get involved in the race, it would probably be with Drumcliff.

Unfortunately, he is quite a short priced favourite - but that is understandable, as he was unlucky not to win a strong race at Kempton over Christmas.
The form of that race was franked at Cheltenham last Saturday - and he very much looks the one to beat.

I did actually consider making him a Top Pick – but the race is just a little too deep for that.

There are 4 or 5 who could be given a chance – and that puts me off getting involved with him at 9/4.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

Sand 1:15 Grey Gold 0.25pt win 5/1

Weth 1:40 Atirelarigo 0.25pt win 15/2

Muss 2:05 Alvarado 0.375pt win, 0.125pt place 7/1

Mentions

Sand 2:25 Baron Alco (O )

Sand 3:00 El Terremento (C )

Sand 3:35 Otago Trail (O )

Muss 3:15 Drumcliff (P )

Eye Catchers

Muss 2:40 Calin du Brizais

Muss 3:15 Optimus Prime