Daily write-up - Feb 1st

There are just the 2 NH meetings today: at Hereford and Leicester.

I had very limited expectations, concerning todays 2 fixtures – it was therefore a pleasant surprise to see a few decent races taking place at both meetings.

Hereford in particular, have put on a very strong card for a mid-week – my only concern is with regard to the state of the ground.

They only started racing again at Hereford this season, after few years absence, so I’m not sure exactly how ground described ‘heavy – soft in places’, will actually ride.

I guess we’ll find out this afternoon !

Conditions are likely to be a lot quicker at Leicester, where they have opted to let nature dictate ground conditions (there has been no artificial watering, all season).

I’ve ended up with a tip on the day – which is unusual for a mid-week: plus a few mentions and 3 eye catchers.

All in all then, a busy day (for a Wednesday, anyway !).

Here are my thoughts on the days main races…

Hereford

1:30 Rebel Beat is the first eye catcher to run today.
He caught the eye last time at Exeter, in his fourth run in a novice hurdle.

He moved nicely in that race - until the point where the action began to hot up – looking like a horse capable of improvement.

The handicapper has given him an opening mark of 104 – and that looks fair enough.
The trouble is, there is a lot of guesswork involved – both in terms of whether he is well handicapped – and also in terms of the ability of many of his rivals.

I would have no issue with the early price of 12/1, which is actually bigger than I expected.

That said, I would be more inclined to wait and see if he is backed, before getting involved (those close to the horse are likely to know if he can win off that mark – and back him if they think he can).

3:00 I quite like the look of Alcala in this.

He was a fair hurdler last season – and showed distinct promise on his chasing debut last time, at Uttoxeter.

He should have no issues with today trip or ground – and his handicap mark looks fair.

The absence of the hood which he has worn on a his past few outings, is a little surprising – but I’m prepared to assume that there is no sinister reason for it !

The trouble is, it’s quite a tight looking race – with Colins Brother, Final Nudge and Truckers Glory, all look potentially dangerous.

I prefer the chances of Alcala – but I would want a bit bigger than the current 5/2, before I considered getting involved (3/1 would seem the right price – and I would be interested at 7/2+)

3:30 This is a really strong race – and a feather in Herefords cap that they are staging it.

I suspect that the outcome will depend to a large extent on exactly how the ground is riding…

If the race turns into a slog in the mud, then it is likely to play into the hands of Mountainous and Firebird Flyer. Both relish bottomless conditions and have boundless stamina: If however, the ground isn’t quite so holding, they could find themselves outspeeded by one of the ‘quicker’ horses in the race, such as Waldorf Salad or Racing Pulse…

Goodtoknow and Federici are the 2 others worthy of serious consideration.

The former ran a massive race to finish runner up behind One for Arthur in the Classic chase at Warwick.
However, he endured a gruelling race – and that was just over 2 weeks ago.

If he is fully recovered, then he is probably the one to beat - but 5/2 is too short in the circumstances.

Federici is of more interest, at a price…

He ran really well on his latest outing behind Straidnahanna at Catterick.

That was only his second run for Donald McCain and he was still moving with menace, rounding the home turn.
He didn’t quite get home that day – but could easily improve again for the outing - plus possibly the shorter trip.

He is currently only rated 133 and I would be pretty confident that Donald McCain wants to get him up the handicap, so that he can run in the Grand National.

That may not happen regardless, but a win today would certainly help his chances of getting a high enough rating.

Very heavy ground could be a concern – but he has plenty of stamina – and still has some potential.

At 9/1 he is worth a small interest.

Leicester

2:10 There are some potentially very well handicapped horses in this – but they are all horribly out of form…

King of the Wolds, Lost Legend, Mister Grez, Ballinvarrig and Ulis de Vassy, are all capable of winning – if they were to bounce back to form.
However, there have been few recent signs that any of them are going to…

As always with these kind of horse, the market is likely to be the best guide – and I would pay particular attention to Lost Legend.

With knowledge of any betting, it makes sense to focus on the other 3 runners in the race.

A chance can be given to all 3 – but the market has them in the right position.
If forced, I would opt for Wilberdragon as the most likely winner – but the race is too trappy to consider getting involved – particularly at a best price of 5/2.

3:10 It will be interesting to see whether yesterdays easy winner, Lady Buttons, runs in this.

She will have to carry an extra 7lb (in addition to the 7lb penalty she already has for winning last week) – but 7lb extra wouldn’t have stopped her yesterday.
If she does take her chance then she is probably the one to beat…

If she doesn’t, then Milord could be of some interest.

He ran really well on his seasonal debut at Uttoxeter – and not too badly, in a hot race last time at Wincanton.

He’s not badly handicapped – and should handle the underfoot conditions, whatever they are !

He might not be quite good enough to win – but I could certainly see him running his race and quite possibly getting placed.

3:40 This is another really good race – and it features a couple of eye catchers…

Tanarpino is having his last run as such, having caught the eye 3 runs ago at Carlisle.
He’s since run a fair race at Uttoxeter; before disappointing a little last time, at Huntingdon.

He would need to recapture his Carlisle form to have a chance today – and there is no obvious reason why that should happen.

Crosspark caught the eye last time, when runner up to Hainan at Wetherby.
That was a good effort and he would have a definite chance today – if the ground were softer.
He’s got a marked preference for soft ground – and just don’t think underfoot conditions at Leicester will suit him this afternoon (he would have been better off going to Hereford !).

Fingerontheswitch is the obvious one under a 7lb penalty for a really impressive win at Wetherby last week.

However, that race was a good deal weaker than this one…

Some are Lucky and Bells ‘N’ Banjos both have to be respected – but there is little margin in their current prices (4/1 and 7/1).

I actually prefer the chances of Templehills – and even considered tipping him.

I thought he was quite impressive, last time at Fakenham – and although he has been raised 7lb in the weights for that win, the booking of Zac Baker effectively cancels that out.

He is on the drift –and could definitely be of interest at a price. However, I do think you would want a double figure price, in order to get involved…

Of the others, then Vicenzo Mio could be a danger to all, if he takes to fences: whilst Tjongejonge is again of interest at a huge price, having missed his intended run at Huntingdon last Friday, when the meeting was abandoned.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

Here 3:30 Federici 0.25pt win 10/1

Mentions

Here 3:00 Alcala (P )

Leic 3:10 Milord (O )

Leic 3:40 Templehills (O )

Eye Catchers

Here 1:30 Rebel Beat

Leic 3:40 Tanarpino

Leic 3:40 Crosspark