Daily write-up - Feb 15th

There are 2 NH meetings today: at Towcester and Newcastle.

I think I’d forgotten how poor the mid week racing tends to be, early in the new year – but this week has helped to remind me !

Before I cover today, just a few words on yesterday.

Hopefully some of you took a risk on Bound Hill…

With all of the uncertainty that comes with low grade races, it would have been wrong to tip him early yesterday, at just 5/1.

However, he did drift out to 7/1 in places during the morning (bigger on Betfair) – and that was a borderline acceptable price, considering the risk.

More than that, he was very strong in the market close to the off – and just as importantly, nothing else was.

His SP may only have been 4/1 – but that was far more attractive than the 5/1 early.

I’m sure a few of you wonder how that could be: but simply, first thing in the morning, it is all guesswork.

The markets are moved by almost anything (for example, me tipping a horse would trim a few points off its price at that time of day).

Come the off however, the prices are a much more accurate reflection of a horse’s chance – because all of the money is down.

Therefore, if a horse is strong at that point, it’s because it is genuinely fancied.

Similarly, it is weak, it is because it is not fancied…

Suffice to say, Bound Hill was very strong in the late market – and he duly dotted up !

On a different matter: the weights for the Grand National were announced yesterday, and as some of you will have already noticed, I posted an early (unofficial) ante-post fancy for the race, in the forum, yesterday evening.

Anyway, on to today…

There really is very little of interest – though there are a couple of class 3 handicaps – one at each meeting – which I have cast an eye over.

There is also a half reasonable novice handicap chase at Towcester,

Here are my brief thoughts.

Towcester

2:40 This looks a pretty open contest – and victory for any of the 8 runners wouldn’t come as a major surprise.

Act Now is favourite as a result of her easy win at Plumpton on Monday. She showed improved form that day – and was backed to do so.

If she is strong in the market again today, she is likely to be tough to beat.

That said, on a line through Happy Diva, she should struggle to beat Two Swallows – though in truth, I would be disinclined to take the collateral form line too literally…

If forced to side with one, I would probably opt for What a Diva.
She has won her last 2 – the most recent of which, was over todays course and distance (and on heavy ground).

She looks to be progressive and is the only runner on the card for Peter Bowen and son, Sean.

At a bigger price, then I could see Queens Present running quite well (and maybe placing): whilst Shoofly Milly is likely to lead, in her re-applied blinkers, and could be one for a pre-race back, with a view to laying in-running…

3:10 I don’t honestly know why Krackatoa King has to carry 12st 7lb in this (answers on a post card, please !).
The race conditions say that the highest weight is 11st 8lb – which is far more normal…

Anyway, he has to – and it’s quite a burden with which to be lumbered (particularly, as Richard Johnson weighs just over 10 stone, so a large chuck of it will be in lead).

He’s a big horse, so he might be up to the task – I just wouldn’t want to bet on it…

I’m also not entirely sure about him stepping down in trip – even at Towcester and in heavy ground (conditions which will mean it should be quite a stamina test).

I would also be concerned about Yanmare stepping down in trip – as his strength is his stamina.
That said, he is sporting first time cheek pieces and if they gee him up, he is probably the one to beat.

If you are willing to forgive her last time out run, then Buttercup has a chance – but that effort was worryingly poor.

Whilst Wabanaki is the potential fly in the ointment – though the market will doubtless guide on his chances, on his belated seasonal debut.

In summary, there is far too much guesswork required, to seriously consider getting involved with the race.
I would suggest Yanmare is the most likely winner – but with the doubts, 2/1 is too short.

Newcastle

4:20 What strikes me about this race, is that despite there only being 5 runners, there is potentially a lot of pace…

Wolf Sword will almost certainly want to lead (over his minimum trip): but Clan Legend likes to do the same.
More than that, Rathlin and Pistol Park, both like to sit right on the pace…

If the 4 of them wind each other up too much, then it will play into the hands of Vengeur de Guye.

He is the only runner in the field with a hold up style of running – so there is a chance that the race will unfold in his favour.

Obviously, it will depend on how things pan out – but if you are able to play in running, it is definitely something to be aware of.

Ignoring the pace angle, then the right 2 horses appear to be at the head of the market, in the shape of Pistol Park and Wolf Sword.

Both are reasonably progressive and have been in good form recently.

From a pure handicapping perspective, then Vengeur de Guye has only got a fair chance – so he is likely to need to race to play out in his favour, if he is going to win.

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.

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Towc 2:40 What a Diva (O )