Daily write-up - Feb 24th

There are 2 NH meetings this afternoon: at Exeter and Warwick.

I’ll be interested to see what impact ‘Storm Doris’ has had on todays ground.

Exeter are claiming ‘Soft – Good to Soft in places’ – which is a fair bit quicker than you would normally expect at this time of year.

Warwick on the other hand is ‘Soft’ – with a few heavy patches – suggesting Doris hasn’t gone mad there either.

I’d be inclined to see how both tracks are riding before wading in too heavily (if at all possible).

There are no tips on the day – and no eye catchers running either – so just a few Mentions to possibly get involved with (conditions permitting)…

Just a reminder that I plan to post on the ‘Fair bets’ thread on the forum at lunchtime – by which point, I will hopefully have a slightly better idea on ground conditions…

Here are my thoughts on the days main races.

Warwick

3:05 We start with a race, where a bit of guidance from the betting would definitely be useful..!

In terms of finding the race winner, then the one I like most, is Celtic Park.

A PTP winner 12 months ago, he showed little over hurdles – but put in a decent effort on his chasing debut in a novice handicap at Uttoxeter.

He finished really strongly that day, so it will be interesting to see how he copes with the quicker Warwick track.

He has the fewest question marks over him in todays race – but has been installed as favourite.

I quite fancied Bacchanel when he made his chasing debut at Exeter last time, but he jumped poorly and was pulled up.

I suspect he is better than that – but it would require a leap of faith to support him (or strong market confidence !).

It’s nearly all guesswork with How’s Vienna, as he is making his chasing debut under rules today. However, as a former PTP winner, he could easily show better form than he has done so far over hurdles…

Royals and Rebels is the final one of interest.

He put up a fair effort on his chasing debut at Plumpton - and could well improve for the application of first time cheek pieces.

In truth, there is too much guesswork required, to be confident about anything.

If forced, I would probably opt for Royals and Rebels at the current 9/1 – though I might prefer to wait and see if Celtic Park drifted a little…

3:35 This isn’t an overly strong field, considering the prize money on offer…

The first thing that strikes me is that 4 of the 7 runners, like to front run – so one or two are likely to be unsuited by the way the race unfolds.

Templehills took a similar race to this, from the front, over today course and distance, just under 2 weeks ago.

If things fall right for him again today, then he must have a chance of following up from an 8lb higher mark – but I’m inclined to think that he was a bit flattered by the way things panned out.

I always check out Venetias runners, when there is a decent prize on offer. I’ve noticed that her horses tend to do particularly well, in valuable races.

Pressurize would be interesting regardless – but assuming there has been no physical  reason for him making his debut so late in the season, I think he is the one to beat.

The market will hopefully provide a little guidance in that respect.

The other one of particular interest, is Dresden.

He ran well behind a hugely progressive winner at Wetherby, last time – and is now well handicapped himself.
The race should also be run to suit him – though I would have a slight doubt with regard to his stamina, in very soft ground.

Johnny Og and No Buts could end up battling for the lead with Templehills; whilst there is a question mark over how much ability Ballygarvey retains (though he is handicapped to win, if anywhere close to his former best).

The only question over Doitforthevillage, is whether he has the class for a race like this – but at the prices, I’m prepared to risk that he doesn’t…

In short, the 2 of most interest are Pressurize and Dresden – with a preference for the former, provided the market doesn’t suggest that he will need the run.

4:45 Allchilledout sets the standard in this, on his last time second to the very well handicapped Court Frontier, at Chepstow.

He’s been raised 1lb for that run – but he would have gone up a lot more if the winner hadn’t been in the race.

There is no obvious reason why he won’t run his race again today – and I would expect him to go close.

That said, this is potentially a fair race.

If Future Gilded stays the trip, then he could be difficult to beat.
The form of his recent second to Captain Redbeard was boosted when the winner won at Haydock on Saturday, and Page Fuller claims a valuable 7lb.

I’m not too keen on Muckle Row or Umberto Dolivate, who have both risen in the handicap following last time out wins – but I am quite keen on Hit the Highway…

He was a decent novice hurdler last season – and ran really well on his chasing debut at Ludlow last time, behind Label des Obeaux.

I was particularly taken by his jumping that day – considering he was up against a very useful rival.

He should have no issues with todays conditions and is definitely worth getting involved with – provided you can get a price.

He’s 8/1 this morning, having been 12/1 last night – though I think that price is still acceptable…

Exeter

3:50 The state of the ground is likely to have a massive impact on this race…

If the forecast is correct, then the going will not be anywhere near soft enough for Mountainous, Woodford County – or probably Barton Gift.

It might not be soft enough for Spookydooky, either – though he might get away with it.
Certainly, if he does, he is sufficiently well handicapped to win.

The other one of major interest, is Audacious Plan.

We were on him on his penultimate run at Bangor, when he finished a highly creditable third.

He disappointed last time at Newbury – but is now 6lb lower than at Bangor and will appreciate both the likely better ground and longer trip.

Jonathan Moore also returns to the saddle, which is a good thing.

He is fairly priced at 14/1…

West of the Edge and Abracadabra Sivola, head the market – and whilst the claims of neither is completely water tight, they can both be given a decent chance.

Whilst at a big price, it is worth keeping an eye on Say my Name.
He is completely unexposed, so difficult to quantify – however he has shown glimmers of promise.
He’s the sort who is likely to be backed, if connections feel his mark underestimates his ability.

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

None

Mentions

Warw 3:05 Celtic Park (P )

Warw 3:35 Pressurize (S )

Warw 4:45 Hit the Highway (O )

Exe 3:50 Audacious Plan (C )