Daily write-up - Feb 11th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Newbury, Warwick and Uttoxeter in the UK – plus Naas in Ireland.

It’s a bit of a strange day.

Aside from the Betfair hurdle, a mere 30 horses collectively, contest the 6 other races shown on terrestrial TV.

With an average of just 5 runners per race, uncovering any hidden angles is always going to be a bit tricky !

I much prefer issuing Big race tips because of the strength of the markets – but there were minimal opportunities today.
Consequently there is just the one Big race tip – though it has been complimented by a couple of Daily tips.

Both of the Daily tips are also eye catchers – so it will be particularly nice if they can deliver.

Needless to say, there are a few Mentions – but with so many small fields, race tactics are likely to be key.

Here are my thoughts on the days main races…

Newbury

1:50 You have to get quite creative if you are going to look beyond Tobefair and Scotchtown in this.

They finished first and second in a Pertemps qualifier at Warwick last month – and whilst both horses have risen in the handicap as a consequence, they still have far less question marks over them today, than the other runners.

At the revised weights it is difficult to know which one of the pair will come out on top this afternoon – which makes Scotchtown the more attractive bet, at 7/2.

In truth, it wouldn’t be a complete surprise if something did manage to beat them both (as a few of the runners are potentially well handicapped) - it would just be very difficult to guess in advance, which one it might be.

If the ground is riding very soft, then maybe Cadeaux George can take advantage of his light weight.

That said, I would be more inclined to hope that one of the main 2 drifted a little in price – or maybe just reverse them in a forecast.

2:25 This race appears even less appealing as a betting medium, with it effectively looking a match between Native River and Bristol De Mai.

Both horses like to get on with things, but I‘ll be surprised if Native River doesn’t lead, with Bristol stalking him.

Ultimately this is likely to come down to whether Dickie can get his fractions right on Native River.

His strong suit is stamina, whereas Bristol probably has a little more speed.

I do think there is a slight possibility that Dickie will go off too hard, in attempt to break Bristol – and it will play into the hands of Le Mercurey.
He has been disappointing this season – but beat Bristol at Ayr, last spring, so is not short of natural ability.

If Sam Twiston Davies settles him in last place – and rides a waiting race, there is a chance that things might fall apart in front of him.
I’m not sure what price you would put on that scenario unfolding - but 12/1 doesn’t seem unreasonable…

3:00 It will be fascinating to see how Altior gets on in this.

He has looked an exceptional novice chaser – but Fox Norton and Traffic Fluid should test him this afternoon.

In fact, based purely on official ratings, Traffic Fluide should win the race – but he is likely to be better for todays run (and Altiors current rating probably doesn’t do him justice).

As a consequence, Fox Norton is likely to prove the biggest danger to Altior.

The official handicapper also considers him the superior of Altior at todays weights – though he may not be 100% fit, following a 3 month absence…

There are far too many questions marks to consider getting involved with the race – but it will hopefully be an enjoyable and informative contest.

3:35 There may ‘only’ be 16 runners in this years Betfair hurdle – but it is still a very difficult race to call.

More than that, because it is such a mature market, most of the value has been squeezed out of it, making it difficult to find an edge…

That said, after due consideration, I decided that it was worth making Wait for Me a small tip...

The case for him isn’t water tight – but I do think he has sufficient ability to win a race of this nature.

His third in the Champion bumper, 2 seasons ago demonstrated that: as did last seasons second to Buveur D’air; and fourth in the County hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.

Things haven’t quite dropped into place for him this season - but that is due in part to his clumsy jumping.

That will need to be sharper today if he is to win – but it is interesting that the hood which he wore in the County hurdle, is reapplied for the first time since then.
He certainly jumped better in that race – so hopefully it will work the oracle again today.

If he does, then I think he is talented enough to win this race – though I wouldn’t want he ground to be riding too soft…

Of the others, then I was very tempted by Song Light, who ran a massive race in the Greatwood on his most recent outing.
However, I just worry about him finishing his race – and would therefore have wanted to put him up EW.

At 16/1, with 4 places, I would have been tempted: but you now can’t beat 12/1 – and there must be a chance that a NR will spoil the place terms.

Another way to play him would be to back him pre-race and lay him in running, as I’m sure he will travel powerfully.

A similar ploy could be used with Beltor and Veinard: as I could see both running well, without quite getting home.

Kayf Blanco is an official eye catcher – and whilst he probably won’t be quite good enough to win, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit the frame at a big price.

4:10 This is a very tight looking race, but I think it is worth taking a small risk on Mustmeetalady.

He was an eye catcher on his seasonal debut at Ascot in November.

He only finished fourth in that race – but he made numerous mistakes on the way round ,without which, he would have been a good deal closer.

He would never have beaten the winner, Minella Daddy – but he might have beaten Blameitonmyroots, and that one franked the form yesterday, by winning a good race at Kempton.

On Mustmeetaladys only subsequent run, he bumped into an enterprisingly ridden Hainan, at Wetherby.

Again, I don’t think his finishing position of third, flatters him – and again, that form was given a recent boost, when fourth placed Baywing won a good race at Wetherby, last weekend.

As a result of his 2 runs, Mustmeetalady has been dropped 3lb in the handicap – and he should be cherry ripe today.

He’s the only runner that Jonjo sends to Newbury – and whilst this is a very competitive race, I think he has a better chance than his odds imply.

It’s easy enough to make a case for most of his rivals, with Vieux Lille and Lessons in Milan, the 2 that I would fear most.

However, they are both significantly shorter in the betting, so Mustmeetalady represents better value.

Warwick

2:05 This looks a tricky race to call…

On official ratings, Rons Dream is the best horse in the race – and whilst she will find the trip a minimum, she does look the one to beat.

It seems quite significant that Sean Bowen is riding her – when he also has a ride in the bumper that closes the Newbury card (though that could obviously be considered a pointer for that one as well !).

Of her rivals, then Whizzey Rascal is a particularly interesting – as she is the only runner on the card for Gordon Elliot.

That said, there must be a chance that she is simply after ‘black type’, which she will get if she is placed in this race (and it’s probably easier to place in this race than it is in many of the listed races in Ireland).

With Surtee du Berlais likely to find the trip on the short side, Jessbers Dreams looks the main danger to Rons Dream.

However, I much prefer the 5/2 on offer for the former, to the 10/3 you can get for the latter…

2:40 This is another tight looking race and it’s not easy to choose between the 3 main protagonists.

Gino Trail, Knockgraffon and Overtown Express can each boast strong pieces of form – and on official ratings, there is only 2lb between the 3 of them.

Gino Trail is the highest rated – and he ran really well to chase home Buveur D’air over todays course on his penultimate run.
That run was sandwiched between a comprehensive win in a Haydock handicap – and a good run against Zamdy Man.
He is clearly in peak form – and the booking of Paul Townend really catches my eye.
I don’t associate Kerry Lee with such actions – but with Jamie Moore riding at Newbury, she evidently wanted to get the best jockey she could for the horse.

By contrast, Knockgraffon seems to have got Bridget Andrews on board by default –she can’t even claim her allowance.

Overtown Express won’t lack for assistance from the saddle – but his form just doesn’t strike me as being as strong as that of Gino Trail.

At a bigger price, it would be no surprise to see Flying Angel bounce back to form.
He looked very good on his chasing debut at Perth – before disappointing on his 2 subsequent runs.

If whatever was ailing him, has been sorted out, he has the ability to go close.

3:15 The handicapper has taken a real chance, by dropping Vibrato Voltat 8lb since the start of the season.

Back in October, he ran third in the old Roan Chase at Aintree, off a mark of 160.

3 runs later, he is able to run in this class 2 event off a mark of just 152.

More than that, he actually ran quite well last time, when forced to make the running in a very small field at Kempton.

He is more likely to track the pace today – and the sharp Warwick course suits him perfectly (he has won on his only 2 previous runs at the track).

There isn’t really a lot to dislike about him – other than a price of 6/4, which is tight.

No Buts could try to make the running – and if he is back to form, he is very well handicapped.
However, he’s not shown anything for a long time…

Actival is the other one of interest.

He is having his second run for Neil Mulholland today, having unseated early on his debut for him at Kempton (in the same race that Vibrato Voltat last ran in).

He’s impossible to get a proper handle on – but was a very decent hurdler and would go close this afternoon, if able to translate his form to the bigger obstacles.

3:50 When I was looking through the form for this yesterday, I though I might have stumbled on a ‘dark’ one…

The Wallace Line has run pretty well in a couple of decent handicaps on his 2 most recent outings – and I thought he might go under the radar in this.
However, an opening price of 11/2, suggested that wasn’t the case – and he is now a 7/2 shot !

So much for him being missed by the market !

I actually think he will have his work cut out to beat Super Sam.

He won his first 2 races this season, before coming up short behind Clyne at Haydock.
In truth, there was no disgrace in that run (even if we couldn’t see it !), as the form of the race is particularly strong.
It’s also interesting that Super Sam was sent off favourite for it…

He’s not been seen for 51 days since then, suggesting he may have had a slight issue.
If he is back in top form this afternoon, I think he is the one to beat.

That said, in addition to The Wallace Line, he also has to contend with a couple of handicap debutants in the shape of Twist of Ginge and Predict a Riot.

It’s impossible to know whether they are well handicapped, but both come from

big stables, so need to be respected.

With a straight bat, then Super Sam is the one to beat – but with the potential for 2 or 3 curve balls, it is a race to tread carefully in…

Uttoxeter

4:00 I’ve been watching Starkie closely for most of this season.

Certainly since his run at Newbury in November – a race I half fancied him for.

He ran poorly that day - but it wasn’t a surprise to his trainer, who came on RUK pre-race and said the horse wasn’t in good form.
The suggestion was that he would need a few runs – and a drop in the ratings – before he became competitive again.

He actually ran pretty well on his very next run – at Uttoxeter – when he just didn’t seem to quite get home, against Special Wells.

His most recent outing was at Exeter, but the 2m4f trip was always likely to prove a bit too far for him…

He gets his ideal conditions today: 2 miles and heavy ground. He has also dropped down the handicap (to a mark 9lb lower than he ran from at Newbury) – and he should be cherry ripe, fitness wise.

It’s interesting that he is the only horse that Chris Gordon sends from his Hampshire base – and reassuring that stable jockey, Tom Cannon takes the ride.

There are definitely a few in the race that can be given a chance – but it’s not possible to make as a compelling a case for them, as it is for Starkie.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

BRT Newb 3:35 Wait for Me 0.25pt win 14/1

DT Newb 4:10 Mustmeetalady 0.25pt win 10/1

DT Uttx 4:00 Starkie 0.375pt win 7/1

Mentions

Newb 1:50 Scotchtown (P )

Warw 2:05 Rons Dream (P )

Warw 2:40 Ginos Trail (P )

Warw 3:15 Vibrato Voltat (P )

Eye Catchers

Newb 3:35 Kayf Blanco

Newb 4:10 Mustmeetalady

Uttx 4:00 Starkie