Daily write-up - Feb 26th

There are 3 NH meetings today: at Fontwell and Southwell in the UK – and Naas in Ireland.

All 3 are reasonable meetings, with at least a couple of races of interest at each.

The main race of the day, is the National Spirit hurdle at Fontwell, and I’m sure I won’t be the only one who will be hoping for a good run from Lil Rockerfeller.

There are no tips on the day – and once again, no eye catchers.

There’s a good sized batch of Mentions though – and I will hopefully be able to turn some of those into Fair bets on the forum, at lunchtime…

Here are my thoughts on the days main races.

Fontwell

2:00 This is a slightly strange race, in that all 4 of the runners are dropping back in trip.

I don’t think that will suit Rock Gone – and I’m not convinced As de Mee will particularly appreciate it either.

Kilcrea Vale is the most likely winner – but he is priced up at a shade of odds on.

That’s probably about right – but it’s not going to tempt me in.

7/1 about Winner Massagot might, however.

He ran a lot better on his most recent outing over fences – and whilst he will need to build on that if he is to win today, that is a possibility.

I do wonder if Alan King would like to run him in the novice handicap on day 1 of the festival. He will need to go up a few pounds to get into that race – but a good run here against higher rated opponents, will probably achieve that.

He’s certainly got a chance – and it will be interesting to see how the market views him…

2:30 Rothman is the one who interests me most in this.

He was an eye catcher in the pre-season – when he ran well over todays course and distance.

He didn’t manage to win in his next 3 outings – but they were all in better class races.

That was also the case on his most recent outing at Wincanton, where he could only finish sixth.

The very heavy ground wouldn’t have suited him that day – and it also appears that it was a hot race.

Pilgrims Bay finished third and Gores Island fifth – and both of them advertised the form at Kempton, yesterday…

Todays race is definitely a class drop for Rothman – and he should be well suited by the conditions.

I’m not too surprised that he was picked up in the market last night – but there may still be some value in his price (anything above 4/1 would seem fair).

The Geegeez Geegee is probably the one to beat – as he is well handicapped based on his hurdles form. Whilst King of Glory could also prove troublesome, if he can replicate his recent comeback effort, at Sandown.

3:00 The big race of the day, the National Spirit hurdle, sees TVB favourite, Lil Rockerfeller, going for back-to-back wins.

He was most impressive 12 months ago – but I suspect he won’t find things quite as easy today…

Maybe not too surprising given the prize money on offer (£45K to the winner) – but this is a seriously competitive event.

On official ratings, Different Gravy is the best horse in the race at the weights, and if he’s on his ‘A’ game he will definitely be a tough one to beat.

That said, he is not the most consistent of animals – and is returning to hurdles after a disappointing run over fences last time.

At a price, I would be prepared to take a risk on him – but he has limited appeal at 5/2…

Lil Rockerfeller is next in the market – and he will almost certainly run his race.

He disappointed last time – but was subsequently found to not be quite right. He’s been given plenty of time to recover since then and I’ll be very surprised (and disappointed !) if he’s not there or thereabouts, at the end…

L’Ami Serge will probably be thereabouts as well – but I’ll be surprised if he’s there !

He’s a horse who travels very well – but often doesn’t find.

Put it this way, if he’s in a battle with Lil Rockerfeller jumping the last, there’s only going to be one winner !

If there is a bet in the race, then I think it is Camping Ground…

He burst on to the scene at the beginning of last year, when hammering Lil Rockerfella at Cheltenham on new years day.

Based on that performance, he looked as if he could be anything – however he’s not gone on since then.
He has his first run for Gary Moore today – and that makes him interesting.

On official ratings, he now has a bit to find with Lil Rockerfella – but that could be mis-leading.
I would be more concerned that he might not cope with quick ground (and Lil Rockerfeller will).
That said, there is a fair bit of juice in a price of 12/1, and he may be worth a small risk.

Southwell

2:10 I quite like the look of Back by Midnight in this…

He won a better race, 3 runs back at Sandown, and hasn’t run badly on his 2 most recent outings (again in better class contests).

He has a marked preference for decent ground – but he didn’t get that last time at Haydock; whilst the time before at Ascot, he did too much too soon…
In truth, there is a chance that might happen again today.

Back by Midnight likes to front run – but so too does Truckers Highway – and I also expect to see Never Up ridden aggressively.

The uncertainty over the pace in the race makes me a little nervous about playing in it – which is a shame.

I think the track, trip and ground will suit Back by Midnight well – and I would be happy to back him against this quality of opposition.

Never Up is definitely the main stumbling block – not only from a pace perspective, but also because he is potential improver in the race.

He’s also been well backed – so if you do get involved with Back by Midnight, it may be prudent to save stakes on him.

2:40 This is a low grade contest – and therefore getting involved is a little risky…

Cleve Cottage was a revelation last time, in first time blinkers at Uttoxeter.

He went from the front, travelling strongly and jumping enthusiastically, and looked sure to win – until tiring, close home…

The ground was very heavy that day – and conditions won’t be anywhere near as testing this afternoon.

That should give him a better chance of staying the trip, and he sets a fair standard for the race…
If I knew he was going to get an easy lead, I would almost certainly take a risk on him – but a bit like Back before Midnight in the previous contest, that’s not guaranteed.

The Jugopolist is another who likes to front run, so the chance of Cleve Cottage is likely to be impacted by how any pace contest is resolved…

Of the others, then Celtic Tune is the obvious danger. He ran well on his chasing debut at Carlisle, last time – and has plenty of scope for improvement. However, 9/4 is a short price for anything, in a race like this.
The other one worthy of a quick mention, is Ashford Wood.

He is dropping like a stone through the handicap, racing today off a mark 32lb lower than the one he ran from, just over 12 months ago.

He’s a bit young to be in terminal decline - and his stable is in very good form. If he is supported in the market, he could be worth a saver…

Naas

3:20 This is a very open contest, as is reflected by the fact that the bookmakers are betting 5/1 the field.

We should find out today, whether Velocity Boy has an issue going left handed.

His best form is the other way round – and he does look a slightly quirky horse.

In such a competitive race, I would be inclined to leave him alone…

My 3 against the field are A Great View, General Principal and Total Recall.

A Great View looks to be gradually getting his act together over fences, and won well last time at Down Royal.

It’s slightly off putting that Barry Geraghty was down to ride Edwulf (presumably having had the choice of partnering A Great View) - but he can’t get all the close calls right !

Bryan Copper has opted to ride General Principal, of the Gigginstown pair – and that is a positive for him. His second to Bacchanson last week (with Mall Dini just behind), is decent form in the context of this race.

Total Recall is the third one of interest.

He ran better than his finishing position suggests, last time. That was in a good quality event at Leopardstown, and his jockey was badly impeded when another rider fell off his horse, rounding the home turn !

Prior to that, he had won a novice chase at Navan and he could still have some potential off his current mark.

4:20 Just Cameron should win this – it’s a question of what is an acceptable price to take…

On official ratings, only Clarcam is considered a better horse – but he is more effective over further and also has to concede 8lb to Just Cameron (and is only rated 4lb superior).

It seems very significant that Micky Hammond has sent him over to Ireland to compete in the race – as he wouldn’t have many runners in Ireland.

The course and trip should be fine – and whilst the ground is likely to be extremly heavy, he should be able to cope with that.

Although he has a stone to find at the weights, Westerners Son is the one who concerns me most.

He bounced back to form with an all the way win in a decent contest last time – and if he is given too much rope today, there is the chance he could do the same.

However, his chance won’t be helped by the presence of fellow front runner Alisier D’Irland – and there is a possibility that the 2 of them will set the race up for Just Cameron.

There is always a slight concern over travel etc. in situations like this – but all things being equal, Just Cameron should win.
Certainly if he is pushed out to 2/1, I will find him hard to resist.

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

None

Mentions

Font 2:00 Winner Massagot (O )

Font 2:30 Rothman (P )

Font 3:00 Camping Ground (S )

Sthw 2:10 Back by Midnight (C )

Sthw 2:10 Cleve Cottage (C )

Naas 3:20 Total Recall (O )

Naas 4:20 Just Cameron (P )