There are 2 NH meetings today: at Kempton and
Bangor.
A
bit like yesterday, it’s not particularly inspiring fayre – and I’m disinclined
to spend too long on it, thereby risking compromising Saturday…
The
meeting at Kempton is a little bizarre: with 2 low-grade, big field handicap
hurdles: 2 maiden hurdles; a bumper and a 2 horse race !
The only race of real interest, is the handicap chase at 3:10 – but it’s not easy to find a value angle into that one…
The only race of real interest, is the handicap chase at 3:10 – but it’s not easy to find a value angle into that one…
The
card at Bangor is more balanced – but the meeting had to pass an early morning
inspection and that always makes me a little nervous (due to the uncertainty
over the ground – and possible non runners).
Before I move on to that, just a few words on yesterday –
which ended up not being quite dull as I had anticipated !
The
main interest was with Benatar, in the Sydney Banks hurdle at
Huntington.
He
ended up finishing fourth – but ran better than that might suggest; leading from
the off, and briefly looking like he might take a bit of passing (he traded at
3.15 in running).
My
feeling is, the race will have told connections that he’s not quite ready for
Cheltenham – and they will save him for Aintree.
But
if they do opt to let him take his chance in the Neptune, I suspect he’s not a
completely forlorn hope – despite having a fair bit to make up on a few of
yesterdays rivals (I would expect him to come on massively for the
run).
The
other race of particular interest yesterday, was the opener at Doncaster.
As expected, Carli King attempted to make every post a winning one – and but for a poor jump at the second last, he probably would have succeeded.
As expected, Carli King attempted to make every post a winning one – and but for a poor jump at the second last, he probably would have succeeded.
Certainty he gave everyone who got in involved at the
early 33/1, a good run for their money.
And
with him finishing second – and touching 1.18 in running – hopefully a few were
able to make a bit of money on him, as well.
Anyway, on to today – and just a few brief thoughts on
the main races…
Kempton
3:10 Brandon Hill and Vyta du Roc very much look
the 2 to concentrate on in this race – but the market is wise to
that…
I
prefer the claims of the former, who appears to be progressing and did very well
to beat Potters Corner at Newbury, last time.
He showed a great attitude in the finish that day – and even off a 6lb higher mark today, I think he is the one to beat.
He showed a great attitude in the finish that day – and even off a 6lb higher mark today, I think he is the one to beat.
Vyta
du Roc has run very well in some top races – and has plenty of back
class.
However, he disappointed badly at Cheltenham on his most
recent outing – and he will also find todays trip a minimum.
There is no doubt he is potentially well handicapped –
but they are a couple of significant question marks that he has hanging over
him…
Options outside the top 2 in the market, are
limited.
It’s
possible that Gorky Island could run well – if he is near his best after an
absence of over a year: whilst Gevrey Chambertain is handicapped to go very
close – but he is enigmatic and probably better over fences.
Brandon Hill is very solid – and there is a chance that
his price might drift, if Vyta du Roc gets over-bet.
Certainly I would be interested in him if his price were to get close to 3/1…
Certainly I would be interested in him if his price were to get close to 3/1…
Bangor
3:20 This is a very tricky race to call, but Lord
Heathfield might be worth a tiny interest.
This
is his first attempt at a marathon trip – but the way he has being staying on at
the end of his recent races, suggests he is certainly worth a try at a longer
trip.
On
his penultimate run at Uttoxeter, he got up close home to beat Brownville – and
whilst in theory he is 3lb worse off with that rival today, Brownville will be
without the 7lb claim of his rider, so there is unlikely to be much between
them.
That
said, Lord Heathfield looks the more likely stayer of the pair –something that
was confirmed on his latest run at Lingfield.
He
was under pressure early in that race; but kept on grinding away and eventually
managed to get himself into third place.
He
finished 4 lengths behind Themanfrom Minella in that race – but I have a feeling
he will be able to turn the tables over todays longer trip.
The
key will be for Kielan Woods to keep him in touch, early in the race – but
provided he can do that, then I expect to see him finishing strongly.
3:55 Many years ago, Hartside was almost the first
ever TVB tip – instead he became the first ever TVB mention !
More
than that, he was the first ever winning TVB mention – and I wouldn’t be
completely surprised if he repeated the dose today…
He
is an extremely consistent horse – who has a specific set of requirements.
Those requirements (a stiff 2 miles of softish ground)
are met today – and he is handicapped to go close (just 2lb higher than he was
for that win).
As a
low grade handicap hurdle, it’s nearly impossible to get a proper handle on all
of todays runners – but I would expect Hartside to run his race – and that could
well see him placing.
Certainly, if you can get 14/1 about him he could be
worth a small EW risk.
Best
of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.
TVB.
Advice Summary
Tips
None
Mentions
Kemp
3:10 Brandon Hill (P )
Bang
3:20 Lord Heathfield (O )
Bang
3:55 Hartside (O )
No comments:
Post a Comment