There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Taunton and
Warwick in the UK – plus Limerick in Ireland.
And
unlike most mid-week days this month (aside from the 4 days of the Cheltenham
festival !), there is some reasonable action - with races of interest, at all 3
meetings…
Generally, the ground continues to dry out – though there
is some rain in the air, which makes me a little nervous, particularly at
Taunton and Warwick.
Maybe not too surprisingly, there are no tips on the
day.
The
analysis I carried out on results, for the end of season report, made it petty
clear that tipping in relatively low grade mid week races, is not a good idea !
However, there are a few Mentions – plus some potentially interesting angles – and an eye catcher.
Here
are my thoughts on the day.
Taunton
3:35 This is a slightly strange race, because
there are reasons for opposing most of the runners…
The
2 without question marks over them are Amour de Nuit and Cigarisi.
The
former was a good winner of a similar race over this course, 10 days ago – and
looks the one to beat today under a 7lb penalty (he is 4lb ‘well
in’).
However, he’s been installed as race favourite at 2/1,
which lessens the appeal…
Cigarisi is making his handicap debut, and so has more to
prove.
That
said, an opening mark of 122 looks fair – as does a price of 11/2.
Outside those 2, you have to start making
allowances…
Baratineur is next in the market – but he will need to
improve for todays better ground (which isn’t guaranteed).
The
trip is likely to be too short for Valhalla: whilst I suspect that Red Tornado
will be using this race to get himself spot on, for an end of season target
(such as the Swinton hurdle).
Alcock and Brown appears to be the Skelton second string;
whilst neither Mr Kit Kat nor Bulletproof, should really be good
enough…
If
there is to be a ‘shock’ then Sizing Granite looks the one most likely to cause
it.
He
is very well handicapped based on his chase form – and whilst I would have
expected things to be happening a bit too quickly for him, back over hurdles –
that could be offset by the fitting of first time cheek pieces (which are
presumably on, in an attempt to gee him up).
The
fact that Robbie Power is over to ride him in his new role as retained jockey
for Anne & Alan Potts, strikes me as quite significant – and certainly if he
is supported in the market, he needs to be taken seriously.
4:45 I can’t believe that anyone would take even
money on Bertie Boru winning any race !
He’s
certainly got the ability to win a race such as this, as he proved just last
week, when hacking up at Exeter.
However, that was the first race he had won in over 2
years – and it happened because things dropped right for him and his jumping
held up.
With
only 3 runners in opposition, things could easily drop right for him again - though there is no guarantee that his
jumping will be as fluent.
He’s
just as likely to try and take half the fences home with him, as he is to
negotiate them cleanly !
Furthermore, I think he faces a very dangerous opponent,
in the shape of Tinker Time.
He
ran an eye catching race as recently as Saturday, and provided he has recovered
from those exertions, I think he will give Bertie Boru plenty to think about
(and that’s even assuming Bertie doesn’t beat himself !).
I
wouldn’t be quite so keen on Abracadabra Sivola or Port Melon: the former wants
softer ground than he is likely to get – and whilst the latter should run his
race, he shouldn’t really be good enough to win.
Warwick
2:50 This is a decent race, but I would be
prepared to take on the favourite, Deauville Crystal.
She was a good winner at Newbury on Saturday, when she seemed particularly well suited by both the trip and course.
She was a good winner at Newbury on Saturday, when she seemed particularly well suited by both the trip and course.
She
steps back half a mile today – and Warwick is a sharper track.
I
suspect that something will out speed her…
The
track should suit Evening Hush, perfectly – and I am actually a little surprised
to see her running in this, rather than at Aintree, next week.
I
had thought that she was a fair bit better than her current rating of 137 – but
her limitations have seemingly been exposed on her 2 most recent runs, and there
must be a chance that she has gone off the boil…
Based on her most recent run at Cheltenham in the Triumph
hurdle, she shouldn’t beat Maggie de Ma – and that one appears to set the
standard in this.
However I don’t see a lot of margin in a best price of
11/4 (particularly as that was her UK debut, and assessing her on just 1 run, is
a little risky).
Giveaway Glance is probably the best bet in the
race.
She
won a couple of novice hurdles, before falling last time out on her handicap
debut at Exeter.
She was still going very well at the time she departed – and looked sure to be involved in the finish of the race.
She was still going very well at the time she departed – and looked sure to be involved in the finish of the race.
She
should be suited by todays track – and if there is a strong pace (which Evening
Hush could well provide), it will help her to settle.
6/1
seems like a fair price…
3:25 Regal Flow and Azure Fly look like the 2 to
concentrate on in this – though unfortunately they are at the head of the
betting…
The
former looked unlucky not to win last time, when falling at the third last,
whilst in the lead and travelling strongly, at Wincanton
He
gets to run off the same mark today – and is well handicapped based on old
form.
He
should have no issue with the ground or the trip – so there isn’t a lot to
dislike.
7/2
is quite a short price – but it is probably justifiable…
In
fact, I would be tempted by it, if it weren’t for the presence of Azure
Fly.
He’s
possibly not quite as well handicapped (though he’s not badly handicapped) – but
he is particularly interesting because of the fitting of first time
blinkers…
He
likes to front run – and I suspect the blinkers will ensure that
happens.
Warwick is a track that is well suited to front runners –
and Azure Fly shouldn’t lack for stamina, either (unless he races too
freely).
Certainly, it is not hard to imagine him getting into a rhythm up front and proving very hard to peg back…
Certainly, it is not hard to imagine him getting into a rhythm up front and proving very hard to peg back…
Choosing between the 2 of them isn’t easy – and it will
probably depend on how effectively Aiden Coleman can control the race on Azure
Fly.
If
he gets the horse settled and gets the fractions right, I doubt they will be
passed…
4:00 Easter Day was an eye catcher last time, when
making his seasonal debut at Kempton.
That
was also his first race for new trainer Henry Spiller, and the horse travelled
really strongly until tiring close home.
If
he was running over the same trip this afternoon, I would be very interested him
– however he is stepped up in distance by 5 furlongs and I think that will
stretch his stamina.
My
inclination would probably be to back him pre-race and then lay him off in
running, as hopefully he will again travel strongly…
In
terms of the most likely race winner, then the progressive Rockys Treasure is
the most obvious one – even though he has gone up 8lb for his last time out win
at Doncaster.
However, there is little appeal in a best price of
9/2.
Saint John Henry is more attractive at 14/1.
He
is not the most consistent – but has a decent strike rate and should be capable
of winning a race such as this.
Limerick
2:45 I quite like the look of Marakoush in
this.
He
caught the eye last time when making his seasonal debut at Fairyhouse in the
race won by Presenting Percy.
He
travelled really strongly that day, until fading out of things from the second
last.
I
suspect that he has more than enough talent to win a race such as this – I just
have slight a doubt in my mind, as to whether connections will want
to...
The
Fairyhouse Easter meeting and the Punchestown festival are both on the horizon
and I suspect Marakoush is a very well handicapped horse, who could be capable
of taking a much bigger prize than todays (probably over a little
further).
The
betting will almost certainly advise: he is currently 7/1 – if he halves in
price, he could easily hack up…
Aside from him, there are a few other interesting runners
in the race – in fact, a case could be constructed for most of them.
Draycott Place will doubtless run his race – and is
capable of at least placing.
He
is well handicapped based on his chase form and should have the beating of
Charlie Stout, from their meeting at Naas in January.
Adreamstillalive beat Landau by 5 lengths last time
out.
However the latter was making his belated seasonal debt
and is 6lb better off this afternoon. I would prefer Landau, of the
pair.
Plain Talking is the final one worth a mention.
Plain Talking is the final one worth a mention.
He
was in good form last summer and should be better for his come back run at
Thurles earlier this month.
However, he needs quick ground – and this could just be
teeing him up for Fairyhouse/Punchestown.
Unless the market speaks very strongly, this should be a
watching race.
4:25 There are similar issues with this
race…
Even
with top weight, Three Wise Men looks potentially well handicapped – but he’s
not run for 4 months and the main purpose of today may well be to get him spot
on for a bigger target.
It’s
the same story with Prickly, who also hasn’t run since November.
The
market will likely guide on expectations with both horses…
Don’t Kick nor Bite would need a win to give him a chance
of getting into a better quality race at one of the festivals, so he must be
respected.
Double Island is the other one of major interest – though
he has a bit to prove after a couple of recent non completions.
Again, this has to be a watching race, unless the market
vibes are very strong.
Best
of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.
TVB.
Advice Summary
Tips
None
Mentions
Taun
3:35 Sizing Granite (S )
Taun
4:45 Tinker Time (C )
Warw
2:50 Giveaway Glance (O )
Warw
3:25 Azure Fly (P )
Lim
2:45 Marakoush (C )
Eye Catchers
Warw
4:00 Easter Day
