Daily write-up - Mar 2nd

There are 3 NH meetings today: at Ludlow and Taunton in the UK – plus Clonmel in Ireland.

It’s a similar situation to yesterday: The Clonmel card is probably best just watched- but there are some interesting races at both Taunton and Ludlow.

However, finding betting angles in the small fields, isn’t easy…

That said, if the early markets were a little more robust, I may well have been tempted to issue a tip.

Instead, I’ll have to hope the price lasts until lunchtime, when I can make it a Fair bet…

Consequently, there are just a few Mentions and a couple of eye catchers, on the day.

Here are my thoughts.

Taunton

3:35 Pull the Chord looks very much the one to beat in this…

He finished runner up last time, in a stronger race at Ludlow. He’s a pound higher in the weights today – but I can’t see that making much difference.

He should handle the track and trip – and I also think he will be suited by the extra half mile of todays race.

I short, I can’t really see any negatives – and he would be my race favourite.
In fairness, he is only a 5/2 shot – so the bookmakers don’t massively disagree !

Fort Worth just edges favouritism over him, on the back on his last time out win at Doncaster.

However, he is 6lb higher today – and this is a tougher race.

I think he will do well to beat Pull the Chord…

It wouldn’t be surprised to see Sir Ivan run a good race – despite the fact his record over fences so far, doesn’t inspire !

Whilst Earthmoves is the other one worthy of a quick mention. He too could be better than he has shown so far, over fences…

That said, based purely on form in the book, Pull the Chord is the most likely winner.
He also has potential to improve.

In absolute terms, 5/2 is quite short – but relative to his chance of winning, it seems a fair price.

4:10 It’s a bit boring, but The Unit looks the one to beat in this…

He’s making his handicap debut today and has been given an opening mark of 131.

However, Air Horse One, who beat him last time, recently won a competitive handicap at Ascot from a mark of 132.

The suggestion is therefore that the mark given to The Unit, could be lenient…

In terms of conditions, then he needs decent ground (which he should get) – and will appreciate todays 2m3f trip.

As with Pull the Chord, everything seems to be in place for him to run a really big race.

Unfortunately, his price is even shorter (7/4) – but that’s due in part to limited opposition…

The 4 year old Volpone Jelois is probably his biggest danger - and as a confirmed front runner, with a feather weight, there is a chance he could try and steal the race.

That said, Roadie Joe also likes to race prominently, so Volpone Jelois really shouldn’t get a free run on the lead.

In summary, with ticks in most of the boxes, then granted a bit of luck, The Unit should come home in front.

4:45 I tipped Starkie the last time he ran – and if this were a better class race, I would be very tempted to tip him again.

He’s actually having his third run as an eye catcher today – having caught the eye at Uttoxeter, at the end of December.

He’s been a little disappointing on his 2 subsequent runs – however, he has been given a hold up ride on both occasions and I don’t think that has suited him.

Cheek pieces are applied for the first time today and I’ll be surprised (and disappointed !) if he doesn’t race much more prominently.

To be honest, I think that is exactly what is required. He ran his best race in the past 12 months, when racing from the front at Newbury, almost exactly a year ago.

That was in a far stronger race than todays – and he was racing off a much higher mark.
I don’t think he has lost all his ability since then – and I am very hopeful that he will bounce back and prove that, this afternoon…

In terms of his rivals, then half cases can be made for most of them – Monte Wildhorn is possibly the most interesting, as he is relatively unexposed and was backed last night.

That said, if Starkie runs to the level he was capable of this time last year, then he really should be too good for them all…

Ludlow

2:50 Kap Jazz was a really impressive winner at Carlisle 10 days ago – and based on that form he is definitely the one to beat in this.

However, this is a stronger race (despite the small field) – and Ludlow is a much sharper track than Carlisle.

In truth, Venetia Williams was almost compelled to run him before his new handicap mark takes effect, as he is 6lb better in today than he will be in future races.

That’s not a particularly good place to be – and I wouldn’t be rushing to back him at 8/11…

I guess the trouble is, there isn’t much to take him on with.

Some are Lucky is the obvious one – and he certainly has fair form and appears to still be progressing.

If Kap Jazz isn’t at his best, I’m pretty sure that he will be able to take advantage.

I would be less sure about Colins Brother - though I also wouldn’t be too hasty to write him off on the back of one poor run, in desperate ground at Hereford.

Vote of Confidence is the unknown in the race, having his first run for Laura Hurley and his first run over fences. The market will likely guide on his chance…

3:25 The thing that strikes me about this race, is that there is 1 front runner – and 4 hold up horses.

The front runner is outsider, Seymour Star – and whilst it is quite possible that he will simply set the race up for his rivals, there must also be a possibility that he will steal it from the front, whilst the others play cat and mouse…

Certainly, he is the sort who could reward a pre-race back to lay in-running, as there could easily be a point, where it looks as if he may have slipped the field (even if that proves not to be the case !).

In terms of the most likely race winner: then that is a tough one to call.

It could well come down to jockeyship – in which case Aidan Coleman and Baron du Plessis would be my choice to come out on top.

4:00 This is another near impossible looking race and victory for any of the 7 runners wouldn’t come as a major surprise.

There is actually an eye catcher in the field, in the shape of Roc D’Apsis.
Unbelievably, he caught the eye in the TVB pre season – but has only run twice since then.

He ran pretty well on his most recent outing at Taunton and would definitely have a chance on that form.

Whether it entitles him to be a 7/2 shot however, is a different matter…

At the early prices, then Marcilhac holds most appeal (5/1).

He ran well on his penultimate outing at Sandown, before disappointing last time at Taunton.
You have to be prepared to forgive him that poor run (for which there was no obvious reason) – but if he does bounce back today, then he could be tough to beat.

That said, I could put together a case for most of the runners, so in the circumstances, it feels like it has to be a watching race…

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

None

Mentions

Taun 3:35 Pull the Chord (P )

Taun 4:10 The Unit (P )

Eye Catchers

Taun 4:45 Starkie

Lud 4:00 Roc D’Apsis