Daily write-up - Mar 26th

There are 3 NH meetings today: at Wincanton and Hereford in England – plus Downpatrick (not Down Royal, as I said last night !) in the north of Ireland.

Aside from an eye catcher running at Wincanton, there is very little of interest at either of the English cards.

The high light of the Downpatrick card is the Ulster National – and there is a horse I fancy in that…

I guess I could have tipped it last night – however, I don’t like to do that in anything other than the really big races (generally those shown on terrestrial TV).

As you are all aware, if you back horses the night before, then assuming you have an idea of what you are doing (!), it won’t be long before the bookmakers refuse to take your bets.

Many of you are already in that position – and not just because you have backed horses the night before…

The trouble is, that whilst I will stick to that rule, plenty of others don’t…

Consequently, horses get tipped and backed the night before and prices get reduced.

It’s a short-term game – but those playing it, don’t seem to mind that fact.

As a consequence, the horse I wanted to tip last night, is now available at a price 50% less than it was then.

That’s a big difference and will account for most of the ‘edge’ of any service.

The dilemma is always whether to accept the lower price.

I decided to do so in this case (because I felt there was still some margin in it) – but it’s rarely an easy call.

There is no way round the issue.
The bookmakers have been very clever, issuing early prices and tempting in people.

As a consequence, by the time they are prepared to take bet, they have all of the horses accurately priced up – and then they put 20% margin on top !

BOG is our most valuable weapon – though as we know, not many drifters win !

Anyway, I just thought it worth explaining the situation (again) – particularly as there isn’t much racing that I can offer an opinion on !

Here are my thoughts on the Ulster National – and the days eye catcher…

Downpatrick

3:50 Federici won this race 12 months ago – and I’m optimistic that he will be able to repeat the dose this afternoon.

He was trained by Enda Bolger when successful last year, but transferred into the care of Donald McCain, earlier this season.
I suspect that was with a view to the horse running in this years Aintree Grand National – but he’s not managed to perform well enough in England, to get the rating rise required to get into the big race.

In fairness, he’s not done badly on his 3 runs for McCain: finishing sixth in the Grand Sefton chase at Aintree in December, before running fourth in the North Great Yorkshire National – and most recently, when pulled up in desperate ground at Hereford.

I tipped him that day – and the form book doesn’t do justice to the race he ran.

He travelled really well in atrocious conditions – but just tired in the final half mile of the race.

I’m sure he will be much better suited to todays decent ground – off a mark just 6lb higher than he won from last year, he clearly has every chance…

Not that this will be easy…

The market is headed by Definite Ruby – and whilst he was well beaten in this race 12 months ago, he has won 2 of his 3 subsequent races and finished second in the other one.

He is trained by Gordon Elliott, who will be going all out for prize money to try and secure the Irish trainers championship.

Second favourite, Folsom Blue, ran a big ran to finish second last time in the Leinster National.

However, he effectively runs from a mark 6lb higher this afternoon (taking into account his jockeys claims) – and that could be enough to stop him.

I would be more interested in Georges Conn.

He was well behind Folsum Blue that day – but finished the race strongly and is 6lb better off today. He also effectively gets a further 5lb in jockey allowances – and that should put him right in the mix.

At a big price, he is worth considering…

The other one that I’m particularly interested in, is Topper Thornton.

He finished fourth to Federici in this race 12 months ago – but is 12lb better off today.
I also suspect hat he has been targeted at the race.

The doubt with him is whether he will handle the final climb to the line – but he is definitely worth a saver – and almost certainly a good back to lay in running option.

The final one worth a mention, is bottom weight Anseanachai Cliste.

He is impossible to weight up, as all of his form is in PTPs. However, he has won his last 8 in that sphere, so clearly has some talent !

Wincanton

3:15 Kayf Adventure is one of the most recent batch of eye catchers, following his run at Sandown, earlier this month…

That was on his handicap debut and he was very well backed that day, in a fair race.

He may have won, as well – but he was just a bit too keen and eventually paid the price.

He will need to settle a bit better this afternoon, but if he does, he is likely to prove tough to beat,

That said, this isn’t an easy race to assess, as 3 of the 4 other runners are handicap debutantes – and 2 of them are from big yards.

I would make him just about the most likely winner of todays race – but I can resist backing him at a best price of 11/10.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

DP 3:50 Federici 0.25pt win 8/1

Eye Catchers

Winc 3:15 Kayf Adventure