Daily write-up - Mar 25th

There are 5 NH meetings this afternoon: at Newbury, Kelso, Bangor and Stratford in the UK – plus Thurles in Ireland.

No shortage of action, then – but it’s very much a case of quantity over quality.
That said, at least there is some competitive racing taking place – and we’ve not had much of that, this week…

It was interesting to note at Newbury yesterday, how quick the ground was riding.

It doesn’t take long to dry out at this time of year – and that will very much be the angle for Newbury…

Apparently the going is still soft at Kelso, where winter is dragging on for just a bit longer…

I’ve ended up with 4 tips on the day – 3 at big prices and a shorter one, which will hopefully cover the stakes on the other 3.

There is also the usual batch of Mentions – plus 3 eye catchers.

So whilst it is not exactly a manic Saturday, there is enough going on to stop you from getting bored !

Here are my thoughts on the main races.

Newbury

1:50 The drying ground isn’t going to suit quite a few of these…
Cloudy Too, Dawson City, Pete the Feat and Coolking are all at their best when the mud is flying, so in the circumstances, they can be opposed…

Half chances can be given to Bodega, Call me Vic and Tinker Time – though the 2 last named have long absences to overcome.

My short list for the race consists of Vieux Lille, Killala Quay, Shotovodka and Ganbei.

Shotovodka won the corresponding race 12 months ago – and off the same mark that he runs from today.
He has been gradually returning to form – and looks the one to beat, this afternoon.

That said, Vieux Lille is potentially the best handicapped horse in the race – though there is room for improvement in his jumping.

If first time cheek pieces sharpen him up, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him come home in front.

Killala Quay bounced back to form last time when winning a veterans chase at Doncaster.

He is only a pound higher this afternoon – and remains well handicapped based on his old form.

However the most interesting runner of all, is probably Ganbei…

He’s not an easy one to get a handle on, as despite being 11 years old, he’s only run under rules 14 times – and 10 of those were over hurdles.
That said, he is very experienced in PTPs – and actually ran in the Foxhunters at the Cheltenham festival 3 years ago…

He ran over hurdles for the first time, just last season – but quickly progressed to a fair level.

He’s only run 3 times so far this season – twice over hurdles and most recently in a novice handicap chase at Huntingdon.

It strikes me as interesting that Mick Easterby sends him down for this race – and whilst he has no chase form under rules, that gives him a chance, his hurdles form from last season, puts him right in the mix (if he can translate it to the bigger obstacles).

His jumping looks sound to me – and I suspect he wants decent ground.

Harry Bannister claims 3lb off what is already bottom weight and I have a feeling that he will run a lot better than his odds suggest.

2:25 Once again, there are a few I would be quite happy to oppose in this, on account of the ground – though the field is a bit too big to get it to an easily manageable size…
Grey Gold will not appreciate the quick ground – and I don’t think it will suit No Buts, either.

Ulck Du Lin and Ut Majeur Aulmes are 2 others who I would be happy enough opposing, primarily because of the conditions.

The 3 that interest me most, are Gurkha Brave, Casino Markets and Ericht.
The first 2 are returning after long absences - but I suspect both have been saved for spring ground.

Gurkha Bravve is particularly interesting, as he has been sent a long way to run – and the booking of Paddy Brennan seems quite significant.

His defeat of Ash Park at Carlisle in October, is good form – though this is a deeper race and he has to defy a 9lb higher mark.

Similarly, Casino Markets run, when third to Fox Norton at Cheltenham in October, is also good form.

If he is strong in the market, I would expect him to perform well.

Ericht has the least to prove in terms of fitness – and is also well handicapped.

The issue with him, is that he is 11 years old and not the hardiest of battlers.

I would expect him to run a good race – but he may find one or two stronger at the finish.

Half cases can be made for most of the other runners and it is likely to come down to which one is in the best condition on the day.

In truth, it’s not a race I could tackle with a great deal of confidence, because there are just too many, that have a chance.

If forced to get involve, I would probably side with Gurkha Brave, at a decent price.

3:00 It seems a bit strange that the big race of the day, is a mares handicap hurdle – but that’s the case this afternoon…

I actually spent a fair bit of time looking at it – but I didn’t uncover anything of major interest.

Most of the runners have masses of scope for improvement, so it’s a question of trying to work out which one is improving fastest.

The 2 that interest me most, are Pearl Royale and Grand Turina.

Pearl Royale hacked up in a poor race at Southwell, last time. In truth, that told us very little – other than she has an engine and is in good form.

It was her third run over hurdles – and her first in handicap company. She had shown some promise in 2 runs in novice hurdles – but the Southwell victory was a big improvement.

Her trainer, Nigel Hawke, remains in good form – and she could be worth a small risk at a big price.

Grand Turina has also only had 3 runs over hurdles – and today will be her first in a handicap.

She was an easy winner at Warwick last time – though it’s not easy to assess the value of the form.

It was also achieved on soft ground – though she did win her bumper on good ground, suggesting she will handle conditions.

She looks fairly handicapped on a mark of 120 – and Venetia remains in good form.

Wizards Sliabh and  Ruby Yeats are 2 others of interest – but in truth there is just too much guesswork required, to seriously consider getting involved with the race.

3:35 Deauville Crystal was my start point for this race.

I was quite keen on him last time, when he was a little unlucky to only finish second at Sandown.

He didn’t get a clear run that day and by the time his jockey was able to get him going, the winner had flown.

He ran as if he would be well suited by todays step up in trip – and I think he sets a fair standard for the race.
However, he has very little in handoff Hygrove Percy on the Sandown form – and he is going to struggle to beat Castafiore, based on their meeting at Ludlow, in January…

Castafiore beat Deauville Crystal by 6 lengths at Ludlow – and whilst the runner up in 5lb better off today, that probably isn’t sufficient to reverse the form.

The concerns with Castafiore is that on her subsequent –and most recent – run at Market Rasen, she finished distressed, wit ha high heart rate and blood coming from her nose.

Clearly that isn’t a good thing – but she has been given 5 weeks to recover and if she is back to her best, I think she is the one to beat.

The chances of the top 2 in the handicap: Night of Sin and Don Bersy, both have to be respected – but they have been found on the market and are plenty short enough, at around 3/1.

Templier is another interesting one – but Pricewise has put him up, and his odds have shortened accordingly.

5:20 Imperial Presence was an eye catcher when running over todays course and distance, in November.

My feeling that day was that he would benefit form stepping up in trip – but that didn’t happen on his next outing at Ascot – and it’s still not happened…

Maybe the break will have done the trick (he’s not run for 99 days) and he will return refreshed and full of beans.

If that’s the case, then this is a winnable race, so he might be up to winning.

I won’t be betting on it though…

In truth. I’m unlikely to be betting on the race – but if I did, I would be looking to oppose Sew on Target – and maybe Doitforthvillage.

Pearls Legend should appreciate the ground  - and is well enough handicapped to win.
He’s been a bit below form recently, but if he were to bounce back, he would take a bit of beating.

Kelso

2:05 Teo Vivo did us a favour back in January, when bolting up over todays course and distance – and I think he is going to take a bit of beating again today.

Since that win, he has gone in again at Newcastle and he has to run off a career high mark this afternoon.

He is 12lb higher in the handicap than he was in January – and as he is 10 years old, that would ordinarily make me a little wary of supporting him.

However, he gets prime conditions today – and is clearly in very good heart.
By contrast, his rivals are either out of form or unlikely to be as well suited by today’s test.

Runswick Royal is challenging him for favouritism – but I would expect him to find todays bare 2 miles, an insufficient stamina test.

I would be more concerned about Sleepy Haven.

He finished well behind Teo Vivo at both Kelso and Newcastle – but gets a significant weight pull.

From a pure handicapping perspective, he has a definite chance of reversing form…

2:40 This is a really interesting little race – which contains lots of familiar faces…

Shades of Midnight finished runner up in the corresponding contest 12 months ago – and must have every chance of going one better today, from a mark 4lb lower.

Seeyouatmidnight is the class horse in the race – and if he is fully tuned up after a 4 month absence, he could be too good for his rivals.

However there is a chance that this race is merely a pipe opener for him, prior to a spring campaign (possibly a tilt at the Scottish National).

I suspect that the betting will advise on expectations…

Big River is the most progressive runner in the field and his last time out second to Dadsintrouble, at Haydock, is good form.

It’s not hard to see him finishing in the frame – though he doesn’t set an insurmountable standard, from a win perspective.

Brydon Boy and Eminent Poet are also both capable of placing – but look vulnerable from a win perspective.

The one that interests me most in the race, is Knockara Beau.

I’ve been interested in him a couple of time already this season – and whilst he hasn’t won, he has run creditably.

The problem is, he is now 14 years old – and therefore vulnerable to younger legs.
On the flip side, todays conditions should be perfect for him – and he has a great record at Kelso.

If he is ever going to win another race, then I suspect it will be this one.
Reve de Sivola might give him a bit of an issue up front – but if he does happen to get an uncontested lead, I can see his opponents struggling to reel him in.

3:15 Yala Enki is the most likely winner of this…

He ran away with a decent race at Haydock, in December – before two slightly disappointing runs behind Defintyl Red, at Wetherby and Doncaster.

He finished quite well beaten on both occasions, but there are possible reasons for the runs.

On the first occasion the race came just 11 days after his Haydock win; whilst last time, he got himself very worked up, pre-race.

Assuming that doesn’t happen again this afternoon, he sets a decent standard.

His 2 main rivals today appear to be Baywing and Seldom Inn.

They were both unexpected winners of small field condition races on their most recent outings.

However, both have incurred significant handicap rises for their wins – and the form may well flatter them…

Silver Tassie and Double Whammy don’t look quite good enough: whilst Alto des Mottes and Morney Wing would both prefer a loner trip.

In short, provided he doesn’t boil over pre-race, this looks like a contest which Yala Enki should be able to win.

4:25 We were on Forest des Aigles at the beginning of this month, when he finished third over todays course and distance.
That was in a slightly better race than todays – and there is a chance he needed the run, after 3 months off the track.

In the circumstances, it is very tempting to tip him again today – and I may well have done so, if his price had been a little bigger.

In truth, I can’t really argue with a quote of 9/4 – it just seems short in absolute terms – particularly as there is a slight doubt concerning his ability to finish a race.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see him saunter into the lead at some point – and he may well saunter home – but if push comes to shove, I don’t know how much he will respond and I don’t really want to pay to find out…

Casual Cavalier and Las Tunas are the obvious dangers - and they do look quite dangerous.

That said, non of the  5 runners can be ruled out with complete confidence, which makes it hard to take a short price on anything winning…

Bangor

4:35 I’m quite keen on Will o’the West in this…

He was an eye catcher in the pre-season, when he ran in a Pertemps qualifier at the Cheltenham October meeting.

He cruised into the lead that day, looking for all the world as if he was going to hack up.
However, he didn’t get up the hill and was nailed on the line.

It was still a very good performance – and a repetition would probably be good enough to win this afternoon.
He has only run twice since then – and has disappointed on both occasions.

However both runs were on softer ground and I suspect he will appreciate a return to a quicker surface.

He’s had 70 days off the track, but it strikes me that Henry Daly has been deliberately saving him for a spring campaign.

The only slight doubt in my mind is whether this is a prep race for the final of the staying hurdle series (this race is a qualifier) – but hopefully that’s not the case…

Chances can be given to most of his rivals – in fact, it’s not easy to find one that a case can’t be made for !

Dual at Dawn is probably the most dangerous, if his last time out second in a grade 2 novice event at Doncaster, can be taken at face value…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

Newb 1:50 Ganbei 0.125pt EW 25/1

Newb 3:35 Castafiore 0.125pt win 14/1

Kels 3:15 Yala Enki 0.25pt win 7/2

Bang 4:30 Will o’the West 0.25pt win 8/1

Mentions

Newb 2:25 Gurkha Brave (O )

Newb 3:00 Pearl Royale (S )

Kels 2:05 Teo Vivo (P )

Kels 2:40 Knockara Beau (S )

Eye Catchers

Newb 5:20 Imperial Presence

Kels 4:25 Forest des Aigles

Bang 4:30 Will o’the West