Daily write-up - Mar 27th

There are 2 NH meetings this afternoon: at Market Rasen and Plumpton.

And so, the final week of the 2016-17 TVB season begins…

In truth, I don’t expect it to yield very much.

Todays racing isn’t great – but I suspect things will get worse before they get better !

I’ll be very surprised if there is anything of interest either tomorrow or on Wednesday, so in the circumstances, I felt I should make the effort today !

As I suggested last week, I’ll extend this week to cover Saturday – though in truth, even that might not be great, as it’s the opening day of the flat season, and there are just a couple of low key NH meetings.

Good job we have Aintree to look forward to, the following week…

I’ll close the official P&L for the season on Friday, at the end of the month.

It’s not been a great season in terms of profits – but I’ll cover my thinking on why that has been, in the end of season report.

I intend to handle the tipping and staking slightly differently, both on Saturday – and for the Aintree meeting.

I’m reasonably committed in my mind, to a model for next season, based around the ‘Fair bets’ – so I’ll try that out on Saturday.

With regard to Aintree, then I will look to use a 0-5pt staking range (but continue to tip early).

It will enable me to spread tips across the big handicaps (as I did at Cheltenham), more effectively than the normal staking allows.

Anyway, that’s in the future – and I’ll confirm plans, later in the week…

As for today, then there aren’t any tips – nor any eye catchers – but there are a few Mentions and some angles to consider.

Here are my thoughts on some of the days better races.

Market Rasen

3:10 If he can translate his recent form over fences, to the smaller obstacles, then Future Gilded is the one to beat in this.

He has finished runner up on his 2 most recent outings – and both races were stronger contests than todays.

More than that, he has been running from a mark 5lb higher than he races off this afternoon, so he is theoretically well handicapped.

It may just boil down to how efficiently he can hurdle – and if there is no issue in that department, then I would expect him to win…

Zara Hope strikes me as potentially his most dangerous rival.

She ran very poorly when last seen in November, so will need to bounce back from that.

However, that is distinctly possible , as her 2 previous wins have both come after a break.

Clearly there is some guesswork involved, but I suspect she is capable of going close.

3:40 Lemons Gent strikes me as the most interesting runner in this.

He won his penultimate race at Southwell, before being pulled up on his most recent outing, at Kempton.

That was in a much stronger race than todays – and more importantly, Lemons Gent was unable to lead.

He’s a horse who likes to race from the front – and given an uncontested lead, he is useful in his grade.

I can’t see any definite competition for the lead in todays race – and Lemons Gent will also get his preferred good ground.

In fact, I would be pretty keen on him, if it weren’t for the presence of The Clock Leary.

I have 2 issues with him: firstly, he is making his debut for Donald McCain (and horses often show improved form on their first run for a new trainer); and secondly, he did occasionally front run, when with Venetia.

In truth, he only led when fitted with headgear – and he is not wearing any today – but it is still a slight concern.

Karisma King and Scooter Boy are closely matched on running over todays course and distance, a fortnight ago.

At the prices, I think they can be taken on.

Box Office is handicapped to win – if he can recapture his hurdles form of a couple of years ago. He’s shown nothing for ages, but he is a Jonjo/JP runner, so the usual rules don’t really apply !

4:10 I like the look of Stage One in this.

He’s not been seen since he made his handicap debut in a 15 runner hurdle race at Hereford in January.

It briefly looked like he was going to win that day – but he couldn’t find any extra close home and ultimately finished third.

It was still a decent performance, and it makes him of definite interest in this, on his chasing debut.

I suspect that he’s not been seen for so long, because connections have been waiting for the better ground.

All of his previous hurdle runs were on good ground – as was his PTP win.

It also strikes me as significant that he is the only runner on the card for Dan and Nick Skelton.

If he is backed, I would take the hint…

Ardmayle and Never Up both arrive looking for their third consecutive win – however, todays race is stronger than the ones they have been winning.

Movie Legend and The Herds Garden both disappointed last time – but would have a chance based on their previous run: whilst Contre Tous has shown little on his 2 runs in the UK – however, is trained by Paul Nicholls and is the only ride on the card for Sean Bowen. Bowen he could probably have ridden Beggars Wish at Plumpton (who looks to have a very good chance), so the fact he is riding Contre Tous, makes him of  interest…

Plumpton

3:00 This is just about the most competitive race of the day.

Beggars Wish has been installed favourite on the back of his impressive win at Southwell, last Monday.

From a pure handicapping perspective, he was value for more than the 7lb penalty, under which he runs, this afternoon.

However, has half a mile further to cover – plus quicker ground – and this is a better race.

Instinctively, 5/1 feels like about the right price: he definitely has a chance – but he also has a bit to overcome…

At the odds, I would be more tempted by McKenzies Friend (12/1).
I tipped him the last time he ran, when he was hammered in the betting at Wincanton.

In truth, he was so well backed that day, I was a little surprised that he didn’t win.

The market support suggested that connections felt he was well handicapped - and maybe todays better ground will enable him to show that.
It’s also interesting that he has won on his 2 previous visits to Plumpton…

There are plenty of others of interest in the race: Groundunderrepair, Beau du Brizais and Awesome Rosie being the 3 most obvious.

The last named is the only ride on the card for Wayne Hutchinson, which definitely make her one to note.

3:30 This is a weak race and Goonjim very much looks the one to beat…

He easily won a slightly stronger race over todays course, a couple of weeks ago; before finishing third at Stratford on Saturday.

My biggest concern with him, is that he tends to pull – and if there is no pace in the race, he could make life difficult for Richie McLernan.

It might all boil down to whether McLernan can get him settled – because if he can, I think he is likely to prove too good.

All of his rivals look pretty exposed, so arguable 9/4 on the horse consenting to relax, is not a bad bet…

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

None

Mentions

MR 3:10 Future Gilded (P )

MR 3:40 Lemons Gent (O )

MR 4:10 Stage One (S )

Plum 3:00 McKenzies Friend (O )

Plum 3:30 Goonjim (P )