Daily write-up - Mar 12th

There are 3 NH meetings today: at Warwick and Market Rasen in the UK – and Naas in Ireland.

With Cheltenham on the horizon, I wouldn’t have needed much encouragement to take the day off. I’ll be in for some very long days next week, so I want to start it well rested.

However, unlike the week just passed, there are a few interesting races this afternoon  – and I never like to miss out on those…

I’ll keep the write-up relatively short – and just comment on the main races of interest (at Naas and Warwick).

Here are my thoughts...

Naas

3:15 This is a strong looking race – contested by a few horses who have clearly just missed out on a trip to Cheltenham.

The market is headed by That’s a Wrap and Carrig Cathal.

They finished second and third to Presenting Percy at Fairyhouse a fortnight ago – and that one is strongly fancied for the Pertemps final at the festival.

Moores Road and Peace N Milan are two other interesting runners.

They both arrive on the back of a couple of wins – and yet remain close to the foot of the handicap.

Thirsty Work and Notwhatiam are yet another 2 with chances – but the one I like most, is Chain Gang…

He’s only run 4 times over hurdles – and so still has plenty of potential.

After winning his maiden first time up last season, he ran in a grade 2 novice event Leopardstown.

This season, he has run in a couple of Pertemps qualifiers – but didn’t manage a top 6 finish in either (which is presumably part of the reason why he is running in this - plus his rating isn’t high enough to get in to the final).

His most recent run was in the qualifier at Haydock – and despite finishing well beaten he showed distinct promise that day.

It was interesting that he was sent over to England in the first place – and then that he was quite well backed for the race.

He made a significant move about a mile from home – but that petered out up the home straight and he was ultimately well beaten.
My feeling was that he didn’t stay the 3 mile trip, so it in interesting that he is dropped backed to 2m3f today.

His stable hasn’t been in the best of form this season - but it tends only to house decent horses and this one could be a fair bit better than a mark of 123.
There’s quite a lot of guesswork involved, but he could certainly be worth a small speculative play at 12/1…

4:50 This race has a slightly mis-leading title. The word ‘National’, suggests a marathon trip – but the race is actually run over a bare 3 miles.

Obviously it will still take a bit of getting – and the race may well have a bearing on some of the other ‘Nationals’ run later in the season – but in reality, it is simply a 3 mile handicap.
That said, it is a very good 3 mile handicap – and one which I felt compelled to take on !

The horse I’ve opted to support, is Sumos Novios.

I have little doubt that he has the ability to win a race such as this – but he is very fragile.

His level of ability is demonstrated by his victory first time out last season, at Punchestown.

He easily beat Empire of Dirt that day, in receipt of just 8lb. Empire of Dirt is now rated 162, which makes Sumos Novios’s mark of 139 look very workable.
In fairness, Empire of Dirt has probably improved since then – but I suspect that Sumos Novios has done as well.

His 2 other runs last season were disappointing - but he bounced back first time this season, when running away with a race at Cork.

I really should have alerted you to him that day, but it was a busy Saturday – and he was installed a short price.
As it happened, he was a significant pre-race drifter – but that didn’t stop him winning as he liked.

He tried to follow up that win, at Fairyhouse at the beginning of last month – but he weakened badly, close home.

That is a concern – and presumably explains the fitting of a tongue tie for the first time today.

That will need to have the desired effect, if he is going to win…

Clearly, he’s a horse who comes with risks. He may be best fresh; and he may have breathing issues. However, he almost certainly has sufficient ability to win this race – and he should get the heavy ground he needs.

It boils down to whether the price on offer compensates for the risk – and I think it does…

Outside of him, this looks an open race.

Bonny Kate will doubtless run her usual honest race – but she is vulnerable for win purposes.

Abolitionist is much improved – and is definitely of interest; whilst at a very big price, I wouldn’t completely rule out Texas Jack (he beat Sumos Novios last time).

Ucello Conti is the right favourite – but like Bonny Kate, can be beaten; whilst Space Cadet would complete my short list.

Warwick

2:50 I think it’s worth taking a chance on Timons Tara in this…

She was an eye catcher earlier in the season – and actually won her first race as such, when romping home at Uttoxeter, 3 starts ago.

She’s not done as well on her 2 most recent outings – but the first was over hurdles – and the second was on a right handed track (Leicester).
Timons Taras is much better over fences than she is over hurdles – and she needs to go left handed (she jumps to her left). She also has a marked preference for very soft (ideally heavy) ground.

She gets ticks in all of those boxes today – and I therefore think it is worth getting involved with her.

If she is to win, then she will need to reverse last time out form with Song Saa.
That one beat her comfortably at Leicester – however Timons Tara gets a massive 15lb weight pull today.
On its own, that might be enough – but when you take into consideration the track orientation, I’m more than happy to side with Timons Tara.
In fairness, this isn’t a 2 horse race - and the other 4 runners can all be given a chance of some sort.

Buttercup is probably the biggest danger – if she can build on her last time out win at Towcester.

However, I can see this course – and the way the race is likely to pan out – suiting Timons Tara perfectly,

She likes to go from the front – and not only is Warwick the perfect course for that, she shouldn’t have too much competition for the lead.

In short, I think she has a decent chance – and represents fair value at the price on offer.

3:25 Just a quick mention for Robin of Locksley in this…

Formerly with Dan Skelton, he has his first run for Caroline Bailey today.

The horse has more than enough ability to win a race such as this – though he has tended not to find for pressure, in the past.

If Bailey has managed to sort out whatever troubles him, then I think he will win this.

Regardless, he is definitely one for a pre-race back, with a view to laying in running (he’s a strong traveller).

3:55 This is another intriguing race – and one that I spent a fair bit of time on…

Unfortunately, I came to the conclusion that Yanmare is the most likely winner – trying an extreme trip for the first time. However, he is the race favourite and there is little margin in a price of 5/1…

This was precisely the race I had in mind for Carli King, when I made him an eye catcher a couple of months ago.
However, he ran really well last time at Doncaster – thereby alerting everyone else to his chances and incurring a 6lb weight rise as well.
Despite that, he’s definitely got a chance today – but again, a price of 7/1 has little margin in it…

Rigadin Du Beauchene is another who has a chance. He tends to run well at Warwick – and is handicapped to win.
However, he is now 12 years old and quite possibly in decline.

If there is one of interest, at a big price, I think it could be Beforeall…

He is falling down the handicap like a stone – and also has a 7lb claimer on board this afternoon.
Just as interestingly, he is wearing blinkers for the first time – and I suspect they will result in him travelling strongly.
Whether he will manage to stay the marathon trip, is a different matter – but backing him pre race and laying in running, should see you in a position where you don’t lose, if his stamina does give out close home.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

BRT Naas 4:50 Sumos Novios 0.25pt win 16/1

DT Warw 2:50 Timons Tara 0.25pt win 9/1

Mentions

Naas 3:15 Chain Gang (O )

Warw 3:25 Robin of Locksley (S )

Eye Catchers

Warw 3:55 Carli King