Daily write-up - Mar 4th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Newbury, Doncaster and Kelso in the UK – plus Navan in Ireland.

With the start of the Cheltenham festival now only 10 days away, it’s not too surprising that the racing isn’t as strong as you would normally expect on a Saturday.

There’s been a lot of rain around as well, so the ground will be riding on the soft side, at all of the tracks…

In fairness, there are a few reasonable handicaps – but the markets are tight, so finding a bit of value isn’t easy.

I’ve ended up with 3 tips on the day – plus a few Mentions and 3 eye catchers.

Here are my thoughts.

Newbury

1:30 The right horses head the market for this and it will be a little surprising if the winner doesn’t come from: Western Climate, Justification, Willows Saviour and Hello George.

That said, choosing between the quartet isn’t easy.

Western Climate is the most obvious one, as he is a progressive novice (despite being 8 ears old !), who beat Gayebury on his most recent outing.
That run may well have flattered him (interpreted literally, he would have around a stone in hand of his mark) - though his previous 2 runs this season were also fair efforts.

He deserves to be favourite – and 7/2 is about the right price…

Justification is also a novice (and he’s a year older than Western Climate !) who is currently in very good form.

He won a decent handicap at Sandown last time and although 9lb higher today, he could still be competitive…

Willows Saviour and Hello George have a different profile, in so much as they were both good horses in the past – but suffered injuries and are now on the come back trail.

That said, both showed sufficient promise in their most recent races to suggest that a fair chunk of the old ability remains.

If that is the case, then both are handicapped to go very close…

At a price, then Shanty Town is of some interest.

He put in an eye catching effort last time on his return from over 2 years on the sidelines.

If he can build on that run (rather than go backwards), he could make his presence felt.

With so much uncertainty, it is probably a watching race.

Western Climate has the least to prove – but his price is tight considering he faces a number of potentially dangerous rivals.

2:05 Leg 3 of the veterans chase series – and a particularly tough one to call…

The result is likely to hinge on exactly how soft the ground is riding – and to an extent, we are guessing on that.

It was on the soft side yesterday – but not much more than that.
If that is the case again today, then it is likely to be too quick for Harry Topper, who needs it to be bottomless.

The other obvious one is O’Faolains Boy.

He is handicapped to win this – and is not so ground dependant. However, he showed precious little on his comeback run at Ascot a fortnight ago and will need to have come on massively for that run.
That said, the Grand National weights have now been published, so that is a definite possibility !
A small bet on him for the big race, before he runs today, might not be the silliest of moves (you can get 50/1 in a few places).

Outside of those 2, it’s a more difficult race to call…

Loose Chips is in good form and will probably run his race. However, he is a better horse at Sandown.

At a price, I could see Seventh Sky running well, assuming the ground is soft: whilst No Duffer is also capable of out running his odds, if the ground isn’t riding too slow…

2:40 There is a chance that Blood Mary is thrown in here…

She’s not run for almost a year – but that was when third to Limini at the Cheltenham festival.

As festival races go, that was a weak contest – but a mark of 133 for Bloody Mary still looks very lenient.

That said, there must be a chance that she will need the run today – and at just 3/1, I think she should be taken on…

Aside from her, Chesterfield is the one who interests me most…

He was a progressive novice a couple of seasons ago and would have won at Kempton, had he not fallen at the final flight.

Presumably he injured himself that day, because he wasn’t then seen for almost 2 years, until he appeared just before Christmas at Ascot in the old ‘Ladbroke’ hurdle.

He ran an eye catching race that day, staying on into eighth place and looking sure to improve for the run.

As a consequence, he was well supported for his next outing in the Lanzarote, at Kempton.
However, he raced too freely that day and didn’t get home over the 2m5f trip.

He drops back to the minimum this afternoon – and also drops down a few race classes (class 1 to class 3).

Seamus Mullins is more than capable of targeting his horses at this kind of race, and I expect Chesterfield to go very close…

Of the others, then Sumkindofking looked like he was going to be a serious horse when he won at Southwell earlier in the season – but he has disappointed on his 2 most recent s runs.
He now has a fair bit to prove.

London Prize has less to prove – but may not be quite up to this level…

If the ground is really heavy, then Melodic Rendezvous will have a big chance - but a bit like Harry Topper, he needs it bottomless.

Whilst money for Canton Prince would make him interesting – though he is returning from a 4 month absence so plenty of guesswork is required.

3:15 Oldgrangewood was massively impressive when winning his most recent race at Wetherby and even off a 9lb higher mark, in a better contest, I think he is the one to beat in this

Unfortunately, he is the race favourite, so it comes down to deciding whether the 3/1 on offer represents any value.

It might – but any margin in the price, is minimal…

I’d be prepared to take on the top 2: Vibrato Voltat and O Maonlai – and also Vic De Touzaine (at the price on offer)…

I could be interested in Thomas Crapper. He won a similar race over course and distance, just under 12 months ago - but he would prefer better ground than he is likely to get this afternoon.

Hollywoodien definitely has a chance – though 2m4f on soft ground may stretch his stamina.

I would expect Dresden to run his race – but he is vulnerable from a win perspective.

The other one of real interest, is More Buck’s.

He was on a roll earlier in the season – and whilst his 2 most recent runs haven’t been as good, I would be disinclined to write him off just yet.

If Tornado in Milan doesn’t go on, then he could get an uncontested lead, and that would make him dangerous.

There is a question mark over his ability to go left handed – and he wouldn’t want the ground too soft. However, at 12/1, he is the value call in the race – with Oldgrangewood the most likely winner…

Doncaster

1:50 I think it is worth taking a chance on Markov, in this…

There is a bit of guesswork required, as he is making his handicap debut after just 3 runs over hurdles – however, he showed real promise on his most recent run – and is bred to improve for todays step up in trip, and softer ground.

Last time at Doncaster, he finished just behind Wenyerreadyfreddie and that one was good winner on Friday.

Markov is a half bother to the potentially top class Willoughby Court – and he doesn’t need to have inherited too much of that ones ability, to be able to laugh at an opening handicap mark of 122.

Of his opponents, then Arthur’s Secret worries me most.

He was a little unlucky not to win a better race than this last time at Musselburgh – and although he has been raised 4lb for that effort, I would expect him to go close again this afternoon.

I’m more than happy to take on Whataknight, Seefood and The Organist - all of whom are running here after abandoning chasing campaigns.

Whilst Ruacana, Bryden Boy and Point the Way, don’t appear to have much in hand of their current marks.

Red Infantry could be dangerous, as he has fair form – and scope for improvement.

That said, he doesn’t have anything like the scope of Markov, who will hopefully show himself a horse of some potential this afternoon.

2:25 Theatre Flame and Bright New Dawn are the 2 who interest me most in this…

The former was a good winner at Newbury, 3 runs ago and must have every chance today from a mark just 3lb higher (and that is ignoring the 5lb claim of his conditional jockey).

His 2 runs since then have seen a fall and a narrow defeat, so there is no reason to think that he’s not still in decent form.

He should have no issue with todays conditions and I would expect him to run his race…

If the going is very soft, then that won’t suit Bright New Dawn – though on reasonable ground, he is probably the one to beat.

He is having his third run for Venetia today and after showing some promise on his first 2 runs, he disappointed a little last time.
However, that was on soft at Chepstow, which probably didn’t suit him.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bounce back this afternoon – though it does look quite a trappy race.

At a price, then Theatre Flame would be tempting, but the margin in a quote of 4/1, is  small…

3:35 Another tricky looking small field handicap, where it’s difficult to find a compelling betting angle…

The Last Samurai won this race 12 months ago – but he’s going to have his work cut out this afternoon, following up off a 12lb higher mark – and under 11st12lb.

The fact that Danny Cook rides Definityl Red rather than Wakanda, is a positive for the chances of the former – and a negative for the chances of the latter.

Vivaldo Collonges makes limited appeal of a mark of 148, meaning that the 4 to concentrate on are Yala Enki, Sego Success, Looking Well – and the aforementioned, Defintly Red…

The actual state of the ground and the way the race unfolds is likely to determine which one of the 4 comes out on top.

Certainly, Yala Enki could be tough to pass if he gets into a rhythm upfront – though there is a chance that either Vivaldo Collognes, or the first time visored Sego Success, might hassle him for the lead.

Definitly Red is just about the most likely winner – but he is also the race favourite.

Looking Well has 5 lengths to make up on him on form from last season - but is 12lb better off. There shouldn’t be much between the pair, suggesting that Looking Well is better value.

That said, at 8/1, Sego Success could be the best value of all – and he’s an eye catcher as well !

On balance though, probably a watching race…

Kelso

2:50 Forest Des Aigles was an eye catcher the last time he ran.

That was at Ayr, early in December and he cruised through the race, but didn’t get home.

As it was only his second run since coming to the UK, there is a chance that he may have needed the outing. The other possibility is that the trip was a bit far…

He is dropped slightly in distance today – but Kelso is quite a stiff track, so the demands on his stamina should be similar.
It’s slightly concerning that he’s not been out for nearly 3 months – but as at Ayr, he seems to be very strong in the betting.
I just have the feeling that he is a fair bit better than his current lowly mark of 107 – and hopefully he will prove that to be the case this afternoon.

Un Prophete looks the one to beat. He ‘s been in very good form over the past few weeks, recording 2 wins and a second.

However his mark has risen by 19lb since his initial victory – and the handicapper will get to him sooner rather than later…

Master Jake should run his race. He’s been a bit unlucky to bump into a couple of well handicapped horses on his 2 most recent starts. However, that could be the case again this afternoon !

Ash Par k is a horse we’ve been following for most of the season – but he seems to have missed his opportunity to win: whilst Clan Legend will likely put the pace to the race – but doesn’t look handicapped to win…

If he is as well handicapped as I think, then Forest des Aigles should win this.
If he’s not, then either Une Prophete or Master Jake are likely to…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

BRT Newb 2:40 Chesterfield 0.25pt win 7/1 (pre R4)

BRT Donc 1:50 Markov 0.25pt win 7/1 (pre R4)

DT Kels 2:50 Forest Des Aigles 0.25pt win 4/1

Mentions

Newb 1:30 Western Climate (O )

Newb 2:05 O’Faolians Boy (S )

Newb 3:15 Oldgrangewood (P )

Donc 2:25 Theatre Flame (P )

Eye Catchers

Newb 3:15 Thomas Crapper

Donc 3:35 Sego Success

Kels 2:50 Forest des Aigles