There are 2 NH meetings today: at Newbury and
Musselburgh…
It’s
been a dull old week…
I
wasn’t expecting fireworks – but I was expecting a bit more than has been on
offer !
In
truth, things don’t improve massively today: there a few races of interest at
Newbury – though the Musselburgh card has little to recommend it…
It
was interesting to note, that Speredek won more prize money with his victory
over 3 rivals at Ludlow yesterday, than Theinval got for finishing third in the
24 runner Grand Annual at Cheltenham, last week.
Theinval almost certainly ran to a much higher level – as
doubtless did a few on the unplaced runners at Cheltenham – yet it is Speredeks
connections who are better off…
And
good luck to them – Cheltenham is an amazing meeting – but its dominance of the
NH season does border on the unhealthy…
Anyway, such is life – and we can only make the best of
what is on offer…
Unsurprisingly, there are no tips today – but there are a
couple of Mentions – and a couple of eye catchers.
Here
are my thoughts on the main races on the Newbury card.
Newbury
2:30 Howlongisafoot is very much the one to beat
in this…
He
was rated as high as 141 just over 2 years ago, when trained by Paul
Nicholls.
He
moved into the care of Chris Gordon for the start of this season – and his
handicap mark has subsequently plummeted.
He
started the campaign with a rating of 134 – and won last week off a mark of just
111.
He
runs under a 7lb penalty today – but is still potentially thrown in.
His
return to form last time, coincided with the refitting of blinkers – so it may
just boil down to whether the headgear is as effective a second time.
If
it is, then he is likely to win this…
Global Dream should run his race – but after 2 recent
wins, probably hasn’t got much in hand of his mark.
Private Malone, Rockchasebullet and Mighty Monty are all
potentially interesting – though they have big question marks over
them.
Private Malone was well backed in a decent race last time
– but folded tamely. He sports first time cheek pieces today – though it would
take an act of faith to support him.
Rockchasebullet has his first run over fences in more
than 2 years. He could be well handicapped – but it’s guesswork as to how much
ability remains.
Mighty Monty has his first run since last July –
suggesting he may have had a problem.
Again, he is not badly handicapped, if ready to do
himself justice.
Certainly if either of the last 2 named are well backed,
then it could be worth paying attention.
Tjongejonge is the final one of interest.
I
suspect he is capable of winning a race such as this, off his current mark – and
if Howlongisafoot disappoints, he strikes me as the one most likely to take
advantage.
3:40 This looks quite an open race.
I
wasn’t too surprised to see Vinnie Red well backed last night. He was sent off
favourite for a slightly stronger race than this, over todays course and
distance, last month – and ran quite well, despite losing a shoe.
He
is likely to prefer todays quicker ground – and has a tongue tie applied for the
first time.
He
may well be up to winning this – but 11/4 is tight in this kind of
race…
I’d
be more inclined to take a chance on Sykes at a bigger price.
He
fell last time out – and was unplaced the time before that. However, that was in
a particularly hot novice handicap, at Chepstow.
Prior to those 2 runs, he had been a good winner – also at Chepstow – and he races off a mark just 3lb higher this afternoon.
Prior to those 2 runs, he had been a good winner – also at Chepstow – and he races off a mark just 3lb higher this afternoon.
I
can see no reason why he won’t run well – and a best price of 9/1, he may offer
a bit of value.
I
would also expect Duelling Banjos to run well – though he is a third of the
price of Sykes…
The
potential issue with Wild West Wind, is the ground (he probably wants it
softer): whilst Bells of Ainsworth is unlikely to be good enough…
Chic
Name is quite interesting.
He has some very smart pieces of form to his name – but found himself harshly handicapped as a consequence.
He is now dropping down the weights – and will doubtless soon be found a race he can win.
He has some very smart pieces of form to his name – but found himself harshly handicapped as a consequence.
He is now dropping down the weights – and will doubtless soon be found a race he can win.
I
doubt it will be this one – though he could well got an uncontested lead and is
capable of staying in front for long enough to make playing him in running, an
option…
4:10 You wait most of the week for one, and then 2
turn up in the same race - eye catchers, that is..!
Optimus Prime caught the eye back in November, when he
made his UK debut at Huntington.
He
ran really well that day to finish second – despite racing too
freely.
I
thought he would be a tough one to beat next time – however, he wasn’t seen
again for almost 3 months, suggesting there had been an issue with
him.
In
the circumstances, it wasn’t too surprising, that he didn’t run particularly
well.
Again, he was very free - and this time, he didn’t last
home, and was pulled up.
He’ll need to settle much better this afternoon, if he is
to have any chance – but the fitting of a first time tongue tie and the presence
of Noel Fehily in the saddle, are interesting moves…
I
couldn’t really recommend him, with the doubts – but a pre-race back with a view
to lying in running, might be an option (as he has travelled powerfully in both
of his races).
Minella Charmer is the other eye catcher in the race –
and he is even harder to recommend.
He
caught the eye when taking a heavy fall in a novice chase at Wetherby – and has
only run once since then, when jumping poorly in another novice chase, at Exeter
last month.
This
looks very much like an attempt to rebuild his confidence…
In
truth, there are question marks over most of the runners in the field, and I
wouldn’t be surprised to see I’m a Game Changer go off a very short price as a
consequence.
He
has a solid profile – and is also progressive.
Maestro Royal also has a solid profile – though isn’t as
progressive. He could easily be placed – but I’ll be a little surprised if he is
good enough to win.
Inner Drive is the one who really needs monitoring in the
market.
He
has very good novice hurdle form – but hasn’t run for 18 months. I suspect he
will need the outing – but if the market says otherwise, I would be inclined to
take the hint.
Best
of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.
TVB.
Advice Summary
Tips
None
Mentions
Newb
2:30 Howlongisafoot (P )
Newb
3:40 Sykes (O )
Eye Catchers
Newb
4:10 Optimus Prime
Newb
4:10 Minella Charmer
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