Day
2 of the Cheltenham festival…
As
anticipated, the ground yesterday was riding on the good side – though with a
fair covering of grass, which meant it was safe.
That
said, it was certainly not a surface for ‘mud larks’ – with mid-winter form
looking irrelevant.
There appeared to be 2 big learning points from
yesterday:
The
winners of both of the handicaps were very well backed: it may be Cheltenham but
that just means it is the bigger stables and better horses, who have been layed
out…
The
other point to note was that Gordon Elliot is no longer an up and coming force –
he is now THE force !
It
was difficult (though not impossible) to make a case for 2 of his winners
yesterday.
However both clearly arrived in top condition – and
produced personal bests.
Even
when his horses aren’t that fancied in the betting, they shouldn’t be readily
dismissed…
With
regards to today – then it is always the hardest day of the 4 to find decent
bets.
Part
of the reason for that is the final 3 races on the card: the cross country
chase; the Fred winter hurdle and the bumper…
More
than the normal level of guesswork is required for all 3 !
This
year, the Champion chase is also effectively a non-event, due to the dominance
of Douvan – which leaves just 3 races to properly target.
I’ve
managed to find a tip in all 3 – and had a stab at 2 of the tricky races as well
!
That
said, all 5 tips are big prices – and are more ‘value bets’ than ‘racing
certainties’.
Still, as yesterday reminded us, there aren’t many of the
latter at Cheltenham – so you may as well chance your arm on the former
!
Here
are my thoughts on the day…
Cheltenham
1:30 Neon Wolf is a short priced favourite for
this – but I’m not entirely convinced by him…
He
was undeniably impressive last time at Haydock (and the betting expected that to
be the case) – but the runner up ran disappointingly in yesterdays Supreme, so
the value of the form is open to question.
More
than that, there must be a chance that he won’t be as effective on todays quick
ground.
Certainly at 2/1, he feels like one that should be taken
on – though finding something to oppose him with, isn’t easy…
Messire Des Obeaux and Bacardys are the 2 obvious
ones.
The
former has arguably got the best form on offer, courtesy of his Grade 1 win in
the Challow hurdle, at Newbury at the end of December.
My
issue with him, is that he has been on the go all season – and I wonder if he
will still be at his peak. If he is, then he is fair value at 11/1…
Bacardys won the Grade 1 Deloitte novice hurdle on his
latest outing – and he looks as if he should improve for todays step up in
trip.
He
also has very good bumper form from last year and there is no reason why he
shouldn’t run well.
However, he is just a 7/2 shot and, as with Neon Wolf,
that looks too short…
Instead, I’m more inclined to take a chance on one of the
outsiders – and Brelade looks the best value option at 33/1…
He
finished third to Bacaryds in the Deloitte – and whilst there isn’t an obvious
reason why he should over turn the form, he was only beaten 3 lengths and is 10
times the price !
He
is relatively inexperienced having only run 3 times over hurdles – so there is
every chance that he is capable of improvement.
He
also showed last spring, that he is perfectly at home on decent
ground.
The
icing on the cake – he is trained by Gordon Elliot – need I say more
?!?!
2:10 I’ve only issued one ante-post tip for this
years festival – but based on the betting, it looks like it was a good one
!
I
tipped Alpha Des Obeaux, early in the December, just after he had finished third
in the Drinmore chase at Fairyhouse.
Following that run, the bookmakers eased him to a general
12/1 and I felt that was an over-reaction.
My rationale was that he had actually run well, in a race that didn’t play to his strengths – and that he should be far better suited to the demands of the RSA chase.
My rationale was that he had actually run well, in a race that didn’t play to his strengths – and that he should be far better suited to the demands of the RSA chase.
He’s
only seen a racecourse once sine then – and that was when he burst a blood
vessel and was pulled up at Leopardstown over the Christmas period.
It’s
therefore a little surprising to see him available at a best price of 6/1 today
– generally speaking horses don’t halve in price, when they have run so
disappointingly !
In a
way, that makes him particularly interesting…
Clearly someone connected to the horse, knows that he is
back in top form – and if that is the case, then he is likely to take a bit of
beating.
Certainly nothing in the field can match his hurdles form – the best of which was a second to Thistlecrack in last seasons world hurdle.
Certainly nothing in the field can match his hurdles form – the best of which was a second to Thistlecrack in last seasons world hurdle.
His
chase form isn’t as good – but he showed plenty of promise in his 4 outings,
prior to the run at Leopardstown.
Hand on heart, I wouldn’t be that interested in him at 6/1, having bled on his most recent outing - however, we are on at twice that price and the suggestion is that he is ready to run a really big race…
Hand on heart, I wouldn’t be that interested in him at 6/1, having bled on his most recent outing - however, we are on at twice that price and the suggestion is that he is ready to run a really big race…
Based on form, Might Bite, is the one he has to
beat…
If
he hadn’t fallen when well clear at the last, he would have been a massively
impressive winner of the Grade 1 Feltham novice chase, at Kempton’s Christmas
meeting.
That’s the second time he’s put in a huge performance at Kempton - but his form elsewhere (including Cheltenham) isn’t as good.
That’s the second time he’s put in a huge performance at Kempton - but his form elsewhere (including Cheltenham) isn’t as good.
Acapella Bourgeois is similar, in so much as he was
massively impressive last time – but that was on very heavy ground.
It
remains to be seen, how effective he will be on todays much quicker
going…
As
with Might Bite, the concern with both Bellshill and Our Kamepfer, is the
course; whilst with Whisper it is the field size – and Royal Vacation, the fact
he would have been trounced by Might Bite, if that one had not fallen at
Kempton.
In
short, we have a race where there is a major question mark over every runner
!
If
Acapello Bourgeois gets away with the ground, then he is probably the one to
beat.
That
said, if Alpha Des Obeaux runs close to the level of form he showed over hurdles
12 months ago, it will take a good one to beat him…
2:50 Despite the enormous field size (26), there
are 3 stand out contenders in this: Tombstone, Peregrine Run and Tin
Soldier.
All
3 are trained in Ireland – and the first 2 named, at least, appear to have been
laid out for this race.
They
have good form, as well…
Tombstone Finished third in last seasons Supreme novice
hurdle – behind Altior and Min – splitting Buveor D’air and Charbel.
That
race couldn’t have worked out any better, and Tombstone was staying on in a
manner that suggested he would relish a step up in trip.
He’s
only run twice since then: being beaten by – and then beating, Jezki.
That
one is an ex Champion hurdle winner himself – and whilst there is a slight
question mark over how much of his former ability he retains, in all
probability, Tombstone did well to beat him - and is therefore very attractively
handicapped on a mark of 148.
I
was tempted to put him up – but the value in a price of just 4/1 in such a big
field, has to be minimal.
You
need luck in running in a race of this nature – and there simply can’t be much
allowance for that, in such a short price…
It’s
also possible to build a strong case for Peregrine Run.
He
was an impressive winner over todays course and distance in November – and a
mark of 142 almost certainly under-estimates his ability.
He didn’t fare so well last time at Warwick – but the heavy ground that day, would have been all against him.
He didn’t fare so well last time at Warwick – but the heavy ground that day, would have been all against him.
He
is much better on a sound surface, so todays conditions should suit him
perfectly.
He
is probably the value call in the race at 10/1 – though I don’t fancy him as
much as Tombstone (which makes him hard to tip).
Tin
Soldier is the third one of major interest.
He
has only run twice over hurdles in Ireland, winning on both occasions. His form
isn’t as good as that of Tombstone and Peregrine Run – but he has plenty of
scope for improvement – and is trained by Willie Mullins (and ridden by
Ruby).
In
truth, I’ll be a little surprised if the winner doesn’t come from one of those 3
– but with the prices so short, considering the nature of the race, I’ve decided
to take an each way risk on one at a big price…
Hawk
High won the Fred Winter, at the festival 3 years ago – and ran pretty well in
the County hurdle, 12 months ago.
He
has only run once since then, when finishing an eye catching third at Doncaster
back in December.
I
don’t know whether he has been saved for this race – or whether there has been
an issue.
However, I do know that he is a much better horse on decent ground, so conditions have moved in his favour.
However, I do know that he is a much better horse on decent ground, so conditions have moved in his favour.
He
is also well enough handicapped to run a big race – and will hopefully
appreciate todays step up in trip.
Clearly, he has 3 serious rivals to beat – though I doubt
all 3 will perform to their optimum – and the bookmakers are paying at least 5
places on the race (some are paying 6).
At
10/1 to place, he is the same price as Peregrine Run and Tin Soldier are to win
– and twice the price of Tombstone.
Of
the others, then Modus, Taquin du Seuil and Kalondra are all worthy of a
mention.
That
said, there is also a fair bit of dead wood in the race, so hopefully Hawk High
represents a bit of value to at least hit the frame…
3:30 Douvan is the outstanding NH horse in
training at the moment – and it will be a major surprise if he doesn’t take
this…
He
has won at the past 2 festivals – and is unbeaten in 13 races for Willie Mullins
(8 at Grade 1 level).
He
really doesn’t have any weaknesses and todays opposition are unlikely to see
which way he goes – assuming he gets round without mishap…
It’s
a similar situation to Altior yesterday – so again, the main challenge is
figuring out what will follow him home…
The
betting suggests it will be Fox Norton – but I’m not completely
convinced.
He
looked much improved when winning a couple of races in the autumn – but was
soundly beaten by Altior on his return from a mid winter break.
I
suspect he will have his work cut out to finish ahead of both Special Tiara and
God’s Own – and at the available prices, they represent better each way
value.
I
would also give Garde le Victoire and Sir Valentino chances of placing – though
the ground is likely to be a bit too quick for Top Gamble.
Special Tiara can be backed at 5/1 in the ‘without
Douvan’ market – and that is probably not a bad price for a horse who finished a
close up third in the race 12 months ago and who will relish the prevailing
conditions…
4:10 This is probably a race best avoided, from a
betting perspective…
J P
McManus has a strangle hold on the top of the market – and that makes me
nervous.
Cantlow seemed the obvious first choice – but Cause of
Causes came in for some serious support last week – and I can’t help wondering
if J P has a plot up his sleeve.
Certainly Cause of Causes has sufficient natural ability to win this race – as he’s shown at the past 2 festivals.
Certainly Cause of Causes has sufficient natural ability to win this race – as he’s shown at the past 2 festivals.
He
bolted up in the 4 miler in 2015 – and was even more impressive when winning the
Kim Muir, 12 months ago.
He
had his first crack at the cross country course, when running here in January –
and whilst he showed relatively little that day, it wouldn’t be a major surprise
if he were to leave that run behind today.
The
market will likely guide – but if he goes off favourite, I suspect he will
win…
Ignoring the possibility of him making massive
improvement, then Cantlow does look the most likely winner.
He
won over the course in December – and that showed him to be just about the best
cross country horse around.
That said, his margin of superiority over his rivals isn’t huge – and he is a 12 year old (so not likely to be improving).
That said, his margin of superiority over his rivals isn’t huge – and he is a 12 year old (so not likely to be improving).
Certainly he doesn’t have a lot in hand of the likes of
Ballybroker Bridge or Bless the Wings: whilst third favourite, Auvergnat, has
potential for significant improvement - and Usuel Smurfer is another one who is
capable of putting in a big run.
Sausalito Sunrise is a very interesting cross country
debutante. If this race were being run over a conventional course, he would be
favourite. He is also trained by Philip Hobbs, who he did very well with a
similar sort in Balthazaar King.
It’s
guesswork as to whether he will actually take to the course, however…
There’s not much guesswork required with
Valadom.
Regular readers will know the score with him. He jumps –
and travels – but fails to get home.
That
said, he tends to reward in running plays (though I can’t help but feel that
well will run dry sooner rather than later !).
4:50 This is the kind of race, which you could
chase yourself round and round in circles, trying to solve…
22
relatively (or completely !) unexposed juvenile hurdlers – the formbook is only
ever going to be of limited value…
Taking that literally, then top weight Divin Bere is the
one to beat.
He
got the better of Master Blueyes on his UK debut at Huntingdon, and that one is
now third favourite for the Triumph hurdle.
Based on that run, he is thrown in today, off a mark of
139…
Second top weight, Project Bluebook has also got some
decent form – though he is more exposed that Divin Bere.
With
less of an eye on form and more of an eye on ‘potential’ - then the Tony Martin
trained Long Call is very interesting – even though he should be well held by
Divin Bere, on a line through Master Blueyes.
Prospectus, Poker Play and Domperignon du Lys are all
unexposed – and it would be no surprise to see them put in much improved
performances this afternoon (particularly if the market speaks positively about
them).
Whilst Icario and Dakota Moriette represent the
Gigginstown/Elliott combination, and have to be respected purely because of
that…
Victory for any of the above named wouldn’t be a massive
surprise, however, I am going to take a chance on an outsider: Diable de
Sivola.
He
is one of 2 runners in the race for Nick Williams – and whilst Richard Johnson
rides the other (Flying Tiger), I suspect Diable is the stables number 1
hope.
He
showed reasonable form in the early part of the season – before excelling
himself when running second to current Triumph hurdle favourite, Defi du Seuil
over this course in November.
There is no doubt that Diable de Sivola was flattered to be beaten less than 2 lengths that day – but he still finished miles clear of the third horse…
There is no doubt that Diable de Sivola was flattered to be beaten less than 2 lengths that day – but he still finished miles clear of the third horse…
He
has only run once since then – when ultimately well beaten by Soldier In Action
at Doncaster, last month.
However, I got the impression that the purpose of that
run, was merely to get him straight for today…
Clearly there is plenty of guesswork involved - but Nick Williams had a similar horse place
in this race last season and I’m hopefully that Diable de Sivola can at least
hit the frame for him, in this years renewal.
5:30 Another nearly impossible puzzle to solve –
and one where you don’t want to be getting too heavily involved…
I
took a chance on Fayonagh at the back end of last week, when she wasn’t declared
to run in the mares race at Sandown, on Saturday.
That
struck me as an odd move, as she would have just about been favourite for that
contest…
It
also struck me as quite significant that she was Gordon Elliotts only entry in
this race.
He has massive fire power – with multiple entries in most of the Cheltenham races – so relying on just one horse, seemed a little odd.
He has massive fire power – with multiple entries in most of the Cheltenham races – so relying on just one horse, seemed a little odd.
Furthermore, Fayonagh has some very impressive form in
the book.
Elliott only took charge of her prior to her most recent
win: but she bolted up in a listed event at Fairyhouse on her first run for him
– having won her previous race at Naas, for Richie Rath.
It’s
a slight concern that her 2 wins have both been on very heavy winter
ground.
That doesn’t mean she won’t handle todays quicker surface – but it is an unknown.
That doesn’t mean she won’t handle todays quicker surface – but it is an unknown.
My
inclination to take a risk on her at a current price of 10/1 wouldn’t be so
great – but at 16/1, she was definitely worth a chance.
Needless to say, there are plenty of other interesting
runners in the race…
Willie Mullins saddles 2 – with Carter McKay seemingly
the better fancied.
However, It wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see stable
companion, Next Destination (under Ruby), finish ahead of him.
Cause Toujours seems very well fancied for the Skeltons:
if the market support for him, continues to the off, he could be worth saving
on.
Other of interest, include Someday, Debuchet and Bakmaj –
but it really is that kind of a race…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead
!
TVB.
TVB.
Advice Summary
Tips
Chel
1:30 Brelade 0.125pt EW 33/1
Chel
2:10 Alpha Des Obeaux 0.25pt win 12/1
Chel
2:50 Hawk High 0.125pt EW 40/1
Chel
4:50 Diable de Sivola 0.125pt EW 33/1
Chel
5:30 Fayonagh 0.25pt win 16/1
Mentions
Chel
3:30 Special Tiara (without Douvan)
Chel
4:10 Usuel Smurfer
Eye Catchers
Chel
2:50 Hawk High
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