There are 4 NH meetings today: at Cheltenham, Doncaster
and Uttoxeter in the UK – plus Naas in Ireland.
After what can best be described as a dull old week,
things really burst into life today !
Cheltenham stage a spectacular 9 race feast of action:
with Doncaster providing an excellent supporting card.
Even
the meeting at Uttoxeter is significantly better than most of those staged
during the mid-week.
We’ve hit the point where mid-week racing and Saturday
racing are 2 completely different beasts…
It’s
a lot easier to tip on a Saturday as well – I guess the bookmakers aren’t quite
so fearful of ‘plot’ horses…
On
the flip side, the highly competitive racing makes picking a winner just as
difficult – and the overnight rain has confused things further.
Yesterday, the ground at both Cheltenham and Doncaster
was on the quick side – after overnight rain, that’s unlikely to be the case
today.
Though exactly how soft it will ride, is anyone’s
guess…
I’ve
ended up with 4 small tips on the day. Mindful of the uncertainty over the ground, I’m
disinclined to wade in to deep.
Needless to say, there are a few Mentions: plus 5 eye
catchers – and even a Top Pick !
In
short, significantly more action than the rest of the week put together
!
Here
are my thoughts…
Cheltenham
12:35 The ground could well be too soft for Ibis
Du Rheu; whilst the trip is probably on the short side for Champers on Ice
(though I will be worried about him, if he is backed).
However, even with those 2 fancied contenders out of the
equation, there are still at least half a dozen who can be given a
chance…
The
‘short’ list consists of Royal Vacation, Singlefarmpayment, Burtons Well, Theos
Charm, Dark Flame and Mercian Prince.
It’s
not easy to choose between them, but I just favour Theos Charm, as he is the
least exposed.
He’s
the only one of the 6 not to have previously won over fences, so the handicapper
hasn’t had chance to adjusted his rating upwards.
Certainly, I’ll be surprised if he’s not capable of
bettering his current mark of 135.
That
is his hurdles rating (it was transferred across) and it was achieved in the
fixed brush hurdle final at Haydock, where he ran Kruhlinin close.
That
is really good form – particularly as it was only Theos Charms third run in a
handicap.
Todays trip of 2m5f should be perfect for him – and he
won’t have any issue if the rain has got into the ground.
The
only concern I have, is with his relative fencing inexperience, around
Cheltenham.
That
said, he’s a horse who tends to race prominently, so that should help his
cause.
It’s
not a race you could be confident about – but a double figure price on Theos
Charm feels like a fair bet…
1:10 I had hoped to tip Thomas Crapper in this –
but the overnight rain has put me off.
He
was a real eye catcher on New Years day, over todays course and distance, when
he came there travelling at the fourth last – but failed to get home.
He’s
been dropped 3lb for that run, which will help his cause – but the overnight
rain won’t.
In
fairness, the ground is unlikely to be as soft today as it was then – but it
will still probably be too soft for him.
Assuming that is the case, then this looks a pretty open
race.
I’m
not overly taken by the front two in the betting: Shantou Flyer or Spahir Du
Rheu; and whilst Aso must have a decent chance, he’s failed to win similar races
twice before this season – and off a lower mark.
Walk
in the Mill is probably the best of the fancied horses – but he is taking a big
step up in class.
The
same is true of Foxtail Hill.
He
won well at Kempton last time – though the race did fall apart, so the form may
flatter him
That
said, his jumping was erratic that day – with him diving to the left at most of
his fences.
He
goes that way round today – and the booking of Jamie Bargary will help offset
some of the 9lb rise he got for that win.
He
is worth a small play at 14/1.
1:45 Un de Sceaux is likely to be too good for his
rivals in this.
He
may not be out of the very top drawer -
but he comfortably resides in the one just below it – and that’s a fair bit
higher than most of the runners in this race !
In
terms of pure ability, then Special Tiara is the second most talented horse in
the field – but he needs quick ground – and has also not been at his very best
this season.
Uxizandre could be of interest at his peak – but he
hasn’t run for nearly 2 years and it will be very surprising if he is
sufficiently tuned to win a race of this nature.
Consequently the one most likely to chase home Un De
Sceaux, is Top Gamble.
He’s a very straightforward horse – and comes into
todays race on the top of his game.
It’s
not inconceivable that he could give Un de Sceaux a real race – though he would
need to find about a half a stone of improvement to beat him (or Un De Sceaux
would need to run below form, by that amount).
Maybe the best bet is Top Gamble with Un de Sceauux,
which is a 5/2 shot…
2:15 This isn’t a betting race, but it will be
fascinating to see how Thistlecrack gets on – faced with a couple of battle
hardened front runners – and the Cheltenham fences…
Smad
Place and Many Clouds are clearly planning on serving it up to Thistlecrack –
and whilst he has the class to brush them aside, it might not be quite that
simple.
To
an extent it will depend on the tactics Tom Scudamore chooses to adopt – and
whether Thistlecrack is amenable to them.
My
guess is that Smad Place will try to make all – and if he doesn’t Many Clouds
will !
Ideally, Thistlecrack will sit in behind and just pop his
fences, prior to taking up the running approaching the second last.
The
issue will be, if he’s not happy sitting in behind…
He
was nearly caught out when he was too brave over one of the ditches the last
time he ran at Cheltenham, and along side better jumpers, he could really pay a
penalty if he chooses to take on his rivals – and the fences.
I
have a feeling that we will learn plenty about him this afternoon – if he comes
through this test unscathed, then I can’t see him getting beaten in the Gold
Cup…
2:50 When Valadom was put in on the opening show
yesterday at 50/1, I did think we might have an interesting one at a huge price
in this – but he was quickly trimmed to 20/1 and I’m not prepared to take a risk
at that price.
In
truth, I’ll be a little surprised if his stamina lasts out.
That
was the issue twice last season when he ran over this course and distance - and
whilst I suspect he has strengthened a little since then, it will probably still
be a bit too much for him.
That
said, there is a chance he will be able to cling on for a place – and he is
likely to once again make an excellent back pre-race with a view to laying in
running, play.
In
terms of the most likely winner, the Cantlow stands out.
That
said, any money for Cause of Causes (also owned by J P McManus), would make him
potentially very interesting as well…
3:25 This looks a really open contest and I think
it’s worth taking a small chance on the complete outsider of the field, Poetic
Rhythm.
Having won a couple of bumpers early in the season
(including the one at the November Cheltenham meeting), he made his debut over
hurdles in a strong novice event, run at this course in December.
He
finished fifth ran day – and improved on that run when finishing third on New
Years day, again over this course.
He
finished behind William Henry on his December run; and behind Coo Star
Sivola on New years day – however he
gets a weight pull with both of them today, which could see him taking their
measure.
In
truth, there is a lot of guesswork involved, as rate of progression is far more
important than stones and pounds at this point in a horses career – however, it
is reassuring to know that the form book reckons he’s got a chance !
The
formbook also reckons that Wholestone has got a chance: along with Elegant
Escape and Keep in Line.
That said, I would probably be more fearful of the
potential of the unexposed pair, Topofthegame and Kimberlite Candy.
It
is that kind of race – but in that kind of race, I will always be inclined to
take a chance on an outsider…
4:00 15 go to post for this, but very few have a
realistic chance of wining.
In
truth it looks something of a 2 horse race – with the main question being
whether Unowhatimeanharry can confirm Ascot form with Ballyoptic, on 4lb worse
terms.
He
probably can – but even money about him doing so holds little appeal.
In fact
you can get the same price about Ballyoptic placing – and that is far more
attractive – particularly as there is a chance you might collect on the win part
of the bet…
Looking outside the top 2 in the market, requites a bit
of imagination.
Henri Parry Morgan was an eye catcher 2 runs ago (in the
Hennessey) but switches to hurdles today - presumably to restore confidence,
after a bad fall over fences last time.
On
decent ground Cole Harden could be very interesting – particularly in receipt of
weight.
However the ground may have gone against him - and I suspect he will
only be at his peak, come March.
One
who will be at his peak, is Kockara Beau.
Unfortunately he is now 14 years old – so his peak isn’t
what it used to be – but it’s still not beyond the realms of possibility that he
could be placed.
You
can get 25/1 with Skybet, on him finishing in the first 4 (125/1 – EW 1/5 odds)
– and that strikes me as a moderately interesting bet…
4:35 The key piece of form for this contest looks
to be the handicap hurdle, run at Kempton over Christmas, won by Bigmartre.
He
beat Drumcliff by a length that day – and meets him on the same terms
today.
That should mean that he will beat him again - particularly as
Bigmartre was making his seasonal debut.
However Drumcliffe suffered bad
interference at the second last, without which he would probably have
won.
In
the circumstances it is understandable why he has been installed favourite
today.
Whether there should be such a big disparity in odds (3/1
and 11/1) is a different matter – but I would expect Drumcliff to come out on
top in that battle.
He
should also have the beating of Wait for Me and William H Bonney – who finished
6th and 8th respectively in that race.
Wait
for Me could have been very interesting on decent ground – but he is another for
whom the overnight rain will have done no favours.
Away
from that form line, Max do Brazil could be interesting for David Pipe on his UK
debut – but the market will almost certainly guide on whether he is expected to
go close.
In
summary, Drumcliff is the most likely winner – but a poor price.
Bigmartre
is the value alternative against him (and worth considering EW at around 11/1).
Doncaster
1:25 It will be fascinating to see how Happy Diva
gets on in this.
She
was a ridiculously impressive winner last time out at Wetherby – but that was in
a class 4 handicap.
The
handicapper raised her mark by 16lb for that romp – and in receipt of weight
from all of her rivals, she is the one to beat in this.
However, as I said
earlier, stones and pounds aren’t what these kind of races are about – they are
about rate of progression – and she faces a few potentially very progressive
rivals.
Chief amongst them is Give me a Copper, who was a hugely
impressive winner, on his hurdling debut at Exeter. He really could be
anything.
Strong Pursuit and Constantine Boy don’t have quite as
much potential – but they still have a fair bit and could very well be much
better than their current marks (which are similar to that of Happy
Diva).
There’s a lot of uncertainty in the race – and nothing at
a big price which I think is worth a risk.
One
to watch, then…
1:55 I really expected to be tipping Cyrius
Moriviere in this – but that was because I expected him to be a much bigger
price than 7/2…
I
find it amazing that a horse with form figures ‘09FUU’ can be installed at such
a price in a competitive 8 runner field – but as I’ve said before the market
picks up on things nowadays, which it wouldn’t have done in the past…
Basically, it is latching on to Cyrius Morivieres last
run, over todays course, when he was very unlucky not to win.
He
was clear and going strongly, when his saddle slipped at the second last fence,
and his jockey was decanted.
He
should have won that race – and based on that form, he has every chance
today.
However, he is no certainty – and as that was his third
unfortunate incident in a row, there must be a chance that his confidence in
jumping, will not be where you would want it to be.
I do
think him the most likely winner – but he faces a number of decent
rivals.
Upsilon Bleu is an eye catcher from his penultimate run,
who went very close to winning last time out (when I tipped him).
He
is 2lb higher today – and would prefer softer ground – but he’s in form and
still well handicapped.
Yorkist would also prefer softer ground – but he too is
in good form and well handicapped – and is unlikely to go down without a
fight.
Cases can also be made for Romain de Senam and Gardefort;
whilst the other 3 in the race can’t be easily dismissed.
In
short, Cyrius Moriviere will need to be as good as he looked last time to win –
and any rain during the day will detract from his chance whilst improving that
of at least a couple of his main rivals.
3:40 There is no doubt that Bigbadjohn has the
potential to be far better than his current handicap mark of 136 – and it’s not
too surprising to see him installed a short priced favourite for
this.
Certainly based on his 6 length defeat of the now 148 rated Our
Kaempfer, he looks potentially thrown in – whilst finishing 8 lengths behind
Thistlecrack at level weights is pretty useful form as well !
The
trouble is, both of those runs were in very small field conditions races – and
this is a big field handicap. The 2 are completely different beasts…
There has to be a chance that he will take the field
apart – but at 4/1, I’m prepared to accept that possibility without getting
involved financially…
At
twice that price, I think Southfield Royale is more interesting.
He too has
form which makes him look very well handicapped today…
A 13
length defeat of Coologue (who he meets on 2lb worse terms today); finishing
within 4 lengths of the 158 rated Tea for Two in a Grade 1 chase and a fourth
placing in a very strong running of the NH chase at the Cheltenham
festival.
All
of those pieces of form suggest that Southfield Royale has 6 or 7lb in hand of
his current mark.
They
also ignore the fact that he could still be improving – and that he has a decent
5lb claimer in the saddle today.
All
things being equal, that should be enough to win todays race – if Bigbadjohn
weren’t in the field !
Outside of the ‘main 2’, there are plenty who I would
expect to run well – and possibly make the frame.
Chief amongst them is last years winner, Ziga Boy, who is
only 4lb higher today – and who sports first time cheek pieces.
Ballybroker Breeze is another who could run well: whilst
Potters Cross could give a bold sight up front and looks over priced at
16/1.
That
said, I only expect them to be involved in the finish if both Bigbadjohn and
Southfield Royale disappoint.
Uttoxeter
2:45 I tipped Le Rocher at Ascot last Saturday –
but the meeting was abandoned.
He is also declared to run at Cheltenham today
– but he is taking up this engagement instead.
Both of those races were much
stronger than this one – and Le Rocher had a fair chance of winning them – so he
must have a very good chance in this.
He
has only run 4 times over hurdles in the UK. He won a grade 1 race on his UK
debut – and followed that up with another impressive win at Cheltenham on trials
day 2014 (3 years ago today).
However, he has clearly had some problems and
wasn’t seen on the racecourse again this autumn.
A
fourth place at Ascot on unsuitably quick ground was followed by a second behind
Clyne in the fog at Haydock.
That
race suggested that Le Rocher has not lost any of his former ability – and if
that is the case he will take some beating in this…
He’s
a horse who needs very soft ground to be at his best - but he should get that
this afternoon.
He
faces some potentially interesting rivals – but I doubt any of them have got his
class.
As
you know, I’m not into tipping 2/1 shots – but I think he will win, so I’m happy
to make him a Top Pick.
3:20 I was quite tempted by Timons Tara in
this…
She
was an eye catcher just last week, when she fell at Ludlow, having looked likely
to win…
My
feeling was that she would be better going left handed (which happens today) –
and she also sports first time cheek pieces (presumably in an attempt to aid her
concentration).
She
should have no issue with the trip or ground – and so could easily run
well…
My
issues are just that I would have preferred her to be given a little longer to
recover from the fall: and she faces geldings today, as opposed to the mares she
faced last time.
I
wouldn’t be too surprised to see her win today – and it’s interesting that she
has been backed early.
If
the market support remains strong to the off, then I’d be tempted to take the
hint…
3:55 The Fresh Prince is the second eye catcher
running on the Uttoxeter card.
He caught the eye on his penultimate run at
Stratford, before falling last time out at Aintree.
That
was in a better race than todays – and he was still in the lead when he came
down (though under some pressure).
The
key to him today, will be getting him to relax. He’s a keen going sort and on
todays heavy ground, there must be a danger that he will do too much, too
soon.
I’m
not sure what to make of the booking of a 10lb claimer for the ride.
On
the one hand, 10lb off his back is likely to be a big help in the ground: but on
the other, the horse is more likely to take control of an inexperienced
jockey.
He
is maybe one to play in running.
If
he settles early, then there is a chance that he will be too good for his
rivals: but if he doesn’t, the he’s unlikely to get home.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Advice Summary
Tips
Chel
12:35 Theos Charm 0.25pt win 11/1
Chel
1:10 Foxtail Hill 0.25pt win 14/1
Chel
3:25 Poetic Rhythm 0.25pt win 16/1
Donc
3:40 Southfield Royale 0.25pt win 8/1
Mentions
Chel
1:45 Top Gamble (w/o Un de Sceaux)
Chel
4:35 Drumcliff (P )
Donc
1:55 Cyrius Moriviere (P )
Top Picks
Uttx
2:45 Le Rocher
Eye Catchers
Chel
1:10 Thomas Crapper
Chel
4:00 Henri Parry Morgan
Donc
1:55 Upsilon Bleu
Uttx
3:20 Timons Tara
Uttx
3:55 The Fresh Prince
