Monday 16 January 2017

Review of the day

I adopted slightly different tactics today, in an attempt to break the losing run of tips – but it was to no avail.

Non of the 5 tips featured where it mattered, which was obviously disappointing…

First up was Desert Queen.
She ran a fair race – but was probably just a bit too keen and had nothing left when challenged between the final two hurdles.

Next it was Morning Reggie – and he was just disappointing.
I thought he was sure to run well – but he was settled out the back and never really got into the race.

Oneida Tribe seemed to run a fair race at Wincanton – though weakened out of things close home, to finish fourth.

Next up it was De Faiothesdream.
It didn’t help his case that he was harried for the early lead by Garde le Victoire.
However, the reality is that he’s probably just not up to that class.

The final tip to run was Wychwood Brook.
In fairness, he was always a risky one – but a bit like Morning Reggie – he never featured in the race, and was just disappointing.

Looking at the results of the races in which I tipped, it is noticeable that the first 3 Sandown races were all won by relatively short priced favourites.
I moved closer to the front of the market with the tips – but I’m always likely to struggle when short priced favourites are winning.

That wasn’t the case in the 2 other races – though Pete the Feat really would have taken a bit of finding (and a bit of nerve, to tip !).

All of this said, the most disappointing aspect of the day, was probably the performance of the Top Pick, Trans Express.

As I said last night on the forum, the Top Picks have done so well, I know that expectations regarding them, are sky high.

That said, I was sure that Trans Express would run his race today – and whilst I thought 4/1 was too short, I still expected him to go close.

I wasn’t even that bothered by the pre-race drift - as he had clearly been backed in too short.

However, I was shocked by his effort in the race, which was miles below the form of his latest run.

In fact, it was a difficult race to understand at all, with the well backed winner KK Lexion, showing massive improvement compared to his last run at Uttoxeter (when he finished just behind Milord).
The whole race baffled me – though the late market movements suggest that it didn’t baffle some…

As for the days 2 official mentions: then Orbasa appeared to run a fair race, but bumped into a seemingly much improved winner: whilst Prairie Town was ridden more prominently than I expected, and had nothing left in the home straight…

TVB.

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