Daily write-up - Jan 18th

There are again 2 NH meetings this afternoon: at Newbury and Market Rasen.

Having gone through the cards yesterday, I was happy that there was nothing I would want to tip, so I was able to produce the write-up early.

Maybe it was inevitable, that after singing the praises of the Mentions, yesterday morning, they all under-performed in the afternoon.
Such is the roller-coaster we ride upon !

Kilbree Chief was my main hope on the day – but after having been very strong in the market early, he was weak near the off, and duly ran disappointingly.
It looked to me as if he didn’t handle the very heavy ground…

His market weakness however, was absolutely nothing compared to that of Winston Churchill.

I thought he was a fair bet at 6/1 – so what did that make him at the near 25/1 on offer on BF, at off time ?!

I think the answer to that, is a horse with no chance !

He may have won on his seasonal debut for the past 2 seasons – but someone clearly knew he wasn’t going to be completing the hattrick.

Episodes like that will always make me wary about siding with horses on their seasonal debuts – particularly in relatively low grade races.

The final mention of the day, Bacchanel, didn’t jump particularly well - and faded out of things.
Ironically, the race was won by Bindon Hill, who had quite a similar profile to Bacchanel – though I felt he didn’t have quite the same scope.

Anyway, that was yesterday….

Today we are (hopefully) faced with 2 meetings, which will be run on uncertain ground.

An unexpected inspection has been announced at Newbury, this morning – due to temperatures falling to –4 degrees overnight.

Yesterday, the going was being described as ‘Soft – good to soft in places on the chase course; heavy in places on the hurdles course’.

Assuming the meeting does go ahead, then we really have no idea what the ground will be riding like…

In the circumstances, I would strongly advise a deal of caution…

Again, there are no tips on the day – and no official Mentions either.

However there are a couple of eye catchers running – and they both warrant close attention.

Here are my thoughts on the days best races…

Newbury

2:20 This really does look a 3 horse race, between Champagne at Tara, Red Devil Star and Max Ward.

The first two named fought out a tight finish at Ascot on their most recent runs – and there should again be precious little between them at the revised weights (Champagne at Tara is 1lb better off for a neck beating).

However, Champagne at Tara is likely to be the better suited by softer ground (assuming that’s how it is riding); plus Red Devil Lad has lost the claim of Jack Sherwood in the saddle (so is arguably, a further 3lb worse off).

In short, you would probably choose Champage at Tara in a match bet.

With so little between them however, it is tempting to side with Max Ward.
We were on him last time, in a stronger race than todays, at Kempton – however he fell, when looking beaten.

Todays drop back to 2 miles is an interesting move – and I suspect it will suit him.
In fact I would be quite keen on him – certainly as a value play – if it weren’t for the uncertainty regarding the ground.

His record suggests that he would prefer decent ground – and he is unlikely to get that.

It then becomes guesswork as to whether he will cope with the conditions.

If he does, then he’s a fair bet at 5/2 – though how much of a risk it is worth taking at that kind of price, is debatable…

2:55 This is the most competitive race of the day – and by some margin.
There is also an eye catcher running in it – and I could be quite keen on him, if he were any kind of a price !
Potters Cross caught the eye on his penultimate run at Chepstow.
That was in the pre-season, and he finished a very creditable third in a fair novice chase.

He followed that up, by running fourth to Beware the Bear in a good quality novice handicap chase at Ascot.

That is strong form – and yet he was dropped 2lb for the run.

Conditions should be fine for him today – and it looks as if Davy Russell has flown in to take the ride (he has 2 other mounts on the card as well – but they look like after thoughts).

The case for him is pretty strong – but it’s a competitive 14 runner race – and he is an 9/4 shot !

I don’t know how you should price up as horse such as him, in a race such as this  – but I would struggle to get involved at anything less than 4/1.
Brandon Hill is the most obvious one to take him on with, as he too appears to be progressive (despite being 9 years old).

He was a good winner last time – and whilst he has more on his plate today, he may well be up to the task.

Most of the other runners don’t have the same potential as the top 2 in the betting – but there are still a few of interest, from a handicapping perspective.

Chief amongst those is Wychwood Brook, who we were on last time, when he disappointed in the veterans final at Sandown.

He’s been dropped 4lb for that run – and will enjoy the likely soft ground.

In fact, if he were guaranteed to jump round cleanly, I would be very interested in him at 16/1 – but that is far from guaranteed.

Jumping is his Achilles heal – but Newbury is a fair course, so it does at least give him a chance.

The other longer priced horse that I could be interested in, is Bob Tucker.
He’s run pretty well on his 2 most recent outings – and provided the ground isn’t too heavy, I could see him doing the same again today.
He’s certainly handicapped to run well, if he is able to cope with conditions.

Market Rasen

2:10 In complete contrast to the 2:55 at Newbury, this is a very weak race.

In fact, there is a bit of a temptation to make What a Diva a Top Pick, as she stands out from her rivals.

She went close at Exeter on her handicap debut – and ran well enough last time at Warwick, despite struggling with the left handed course.

Hopefully she will cope better going right handed – and if she does, it’s hard to see what will beat her.

However, she is a mare, carrying 11st12lb in soft ground – and it is a class 4 race.

All of that needs to be considered before steaming in with a meaty wager !

I expect her to win, because her rivals look very limited - but it will depend on her running to the level of form, of which she is capable…

2:40 This is the best quality race of the day – and I think that King’s Odyssey is the best horse running in it.
More than that, he should be well suited by both the ground and trip – and he should be ready to do himself justice.

However, there is something niggling me…

He is currently rated 147 and a good win today will likely see his handicap mark rise – particularly if he beats Kilcrea Vale and Three Musketeers, on merit.
If that happens, his chances of winning a decent handicap, will reduce significantly.

Todays race is only worth £12K. He would pick up 5 times that (at least) for winning a big handicap.

It just makes me wonder how much he will really be going for it…

If he doesn’t win, then either Kilcrea Vale of Three Musketeers, should (as they are a few pounds better than him, at todays weights).

The potential fly in the ointment is Hester Flemen.

She is unbeaten under rules and could be anything – though will have to be pretty good, to defy a 400 day absence from the track.

3:15 Noble Legend is the second eye catcher running today.
He caught the eye 3 runs ago, when running reasonably at Uttoxeter.
However, he’s not shown much in his 2 subsequent outings and gets to run off a mark 12lb lower today.

To be honest, I can’t be sure that he’s not gone at the game – but I do think he is of some interest this afternoon at a big price.
Firstly, he is wearing first time blinkers – and there is a chance they could bring about some improvement: and secondly, he is reunited with Harry Skelton.

I expect Skelton to give the horse a really forceful ride and try to make every post a winning one.

Whether he will be able to achieve that, is a different matter: but he is competing in a weaker race than he is used to – and off a much lower rating.

If he isn’t up to the job, then Unzing looks the most likely winner.

He won well last time and whilst he runs from a mark 5lb higher today, I expect him to improve for todays step up in trip.

However, 7/4 is a tight enough price…

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

None

Mentions

None

Eye Catchers

Newb 2:55 Potters Corner

MR 3:15 Noble Legend