There are 2 NH meetings this afternoon: at Catterick and
Leicester.
It’s
a similar situation to the first few days of the week: generally low grade
racing, with a couple of races of interest – both at Catterick…
It’s
a strange situation at Leicester, where the hurdles course has a going stick
reading of 8.6 (which would normally equate to good to firm) – but the ground is
actually described as ‘good to soft – soft in places’.
I’m
not sure what’s going on, though it would make sense to watch the first couple
of races (if possible) before committing too heavily on any horse with a strong
ground preference.
Anyway, no tips on the day – but a few mentions and 3 eye
catchers.
Here
are my thoughts…
Catterick
1:50 Indian Voyage will be a having his fifth run
as an eye catcher in this (a record !).
However, he has remained on the list for so long, in the
hope that he will eventually run on heavy ground – and that’s not going to
happen today.
As a consequence, I’ll be a bit surprised if he is able to win…
As a consequence, I’ll be a bit surprised if he is able to win…
The
most likely winner is A Little Magic – in fact, I would say that the race is his
to lose.
However, as a headstrong front runner, there is a chance he will be capable of losing it – either through early over exuberance, or through poor jumping.
However, as a headstrong front runner, there is a chance he will be capable of losing it – either through early over exuberance, or through poor jumping.
If
Noel Fehily can get him settled and jumping, then I think he will be too good
for his rivals – but I see no margin in a price of 7/4, about that
happening…
One
who I do think will run a race, is Swaledale Lad.
He is well handicapped on old form – but is almost certainly in decline.
That said he did win his most recent race – though that was a selling hurdle, so the form needs to be kept in perspective.
However, it did show that he is in good heart – and whilst he hasn’t got the scope of A Little Magic, he is very likely to run his race.
He is well handicapped on old form – but is almost certainly in decline.
That said he did win his most recent race – though that was a selling hurdle, so the form needs to be kept in perspective.
However, it did show that he is in good heart – and whilst he hasn’t got the scope of A Little Magic, he is very likely to run his race.
I
can see issues with most of the others, so maybe the 9/2 on Swaledale Lad in the
‘without the fav’ market, is the best way to play the race…
2:50 There are a couple more eye catchers running
in this: Doing Fine and Raktiman – and Doing Fine looks very much the one to
beat.
In
truth, I’m struggling to see a negative with him: He will like the ground; stay
the trip; is reasonably handicapped – and ran very well last time.
That’s pretty much a full set of boxes ticked !
That’s pretty much a full set of boxes ticked !
The
only real issue with him, is the price: 4/1 in a 15 runner race, over 24 fences,
seems very tight.
There is always an element of luck in these kind of races
– so you do need some margin in the price…
Raktiman is quite an interesting one…
He
too has ticks in plenty of boxes - but a big question mark in one.
The
3m5f trip is much further than he normally runs over.
I’ll
be a little surprised if he stays it – and if he does, I’ll be a little
surprised if he is good enough to beat Doing Fine (assuming that one gets round
OK).
However, he could be a good one to back pre-race and lay in running, as he is likely to travel well, until his stamina is tested.
However, he could be a good one to back pre-race and lay in running, as he is likely to travel well, until his stamina is tested.
Of
the others, then Straidnahannah is the one of most interest: though his price
has now halved from the 12/1 on offer last night.
He
has ticks in the same boxes as Raktiman – along with a question mark over the
trip.
However, unlike Raktiman, there is an argument for thinking the trip might bring about improvement in him.
However, unlike Raktiman, there is an argument for thinking the trip might bring about improvement in him.
If
it does, then he has the natural ability to give Doing Fine a real
race.
I
think the quick ground will be an issue for many of the others…
If
it had been softer, then I would certainly have been interested in Alto Des
Mottes – but he does seem best on heavy.
Leicester
1:05 If the ground is genuinely soft, I might be
tempted to take a chance on Hollywood All Star.
He
has some decent form from last season, when he won a couple of races and ran
respectably off marks a fair bit higher than he runs off today.
His
seasonal debut at Haydock last month, was not without some promise – and he is
the only runner on the card for Graeme McPherson and Kielan Woods.
The
big concern with him however, is the state of the ground.
He
seems to have a strong preference for heavy – so anything quicker than soft,
could be an issue for him…
Best
of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.
TVB.
Advice Summary
Tips
None
Mentions
Catt
1:50 Swaledale Lad (without the fav)
Catt
2:50 Doing Fine (P )
Leic
1:05 Hollywood All Star (C )
Eye Catchers
Catt
1:50 Indian Voyage
Catt
2:50 Doing Fine
Catt
2:50 Raktiman
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