Daily write-up - Jan 24th

There are 2 NH meetings this afternoon (probably): at Leicester and Wetherby…

It’s not easy on a day like today.

Assessing low grade horses, running on uncertain ground is tricky enough at the best of times – but when there is also a doubt over whether the meetings will actually take place, you have to wonder if it is worth the effort…

The were early morning inspections at both tracks – but they proved inconclusive – so there are now mid morning inspections.

It would be no surprise to see even later inspections, as the tracks will doubtless be given ‘every chance’ to race.

In a way, that’s good – but the trouble is, we have literally no idea what we will be dealing with.

It’s difficult enough trying to figure out how the ground will ride, without having to factor in the impact of frost.

Similarly, it’s not unusual for there to be plenty of non runners, when there has been frost in the ground, so it becomes impossible to try and work out how a race might be run…

There is an argument for just leaving it alone – but as I’d spent a little time last night, looking at a few of the races, I will briefly share my thoughts.

Needless to say, I would recommend extreme caution if you do get involved this afternoon…

Leicester

2:20 There is a really good programme of mares race being run this season – and this is one of them.

It’s a much better race than you would normally expect to see at Leicester on a Tuesday afternoon.

Using conventional form reading, La Vaticane is the most likely winner of the race.

She was beaten by Desert Queen on her seasonal debut at Market Rasen – but is 10lb better off today, for 5 lengths.
That should be enough to reverse the form – and that may well happen.

Desert Queen herself, should finish in front of The Organist.

The pair finished second and third behind Briery Belle at Warwick and whilst The Oraganist is 4lb better off today, that shouldn’t be sufficient to enabled her to reverse a 43 length deficit !

However, The Organist seemed to really struggle with the soft ground that day, and I suspect she didn’t run her race.

She was sent off a shorter price than Desert Queen, and I wouldn’t be too surprised to see her leave that form behind.
Interestingly, Barry Geraghty is over to ride her today – and she is his only ride on the card.

The Organist was also beaten by Tagritra on her chasing debut at Huntingdon – and on the form book, she shouldn’t be able to reverse that today.
However, once again, she was very well fancied in the market and I suspect she ran a little below her ability.
Clearly it is risky supporting a horse who has disappointed on her 2 most recent outings.

However I’m pretty sure that connections believe she is significantly better than she has shown on both occasions.

Certainly, her form over hurdles from last season, suggests she could be very good – and there has been nothing wrong with her fencing.

At 6/1, it could be worth taking a small risk that she does show what she is capable of this afternoon.

2:50 A quick mention for Ballyarthur in this.
He was an eye catcher on his penultimate run at Cheltenham, before falling last time in a hot race at Ascot.

Both of those runs were in handicaps – but he returns to novice company this afternoon.

On ratings, he should go close – though he may have bumped into one in the shape of Global Stage.

He ran well on his hurdling debut in the Grade 1 Tolworth hurdle – and on a literal interpretation of that form, he should be too good for Ballyarthur.

At a price it may have been be worth a small risk on Ballyarthur, as he only appears to have the one rival to beat: but at 15/8, it is probably best to just take a watching brief…

Wetherby

2:30 I thought Fingerontheswitch, the most interesting runner in this race.

He is very well weighted, based on his hurdle form from last season – and has more scope for improvement than most of his rivals.

It is also interesting to see the fitting of a first time tongue tie (even though such  a move tends to indicate a breathing problem).

At a price, he too may have been worth a risk, but he’s been heavily supported – and I don’t fancy him strongly enough to consider getting involved at 9/4.

Swing Hard is the other one of some interest.
He ran disappointingly on his seasonal debut, but won last March, from a mark 1lb higher than he races off today.

If he gets an aggressive ride from Danny Cook, he could prove difficult to pass…

3:30 I would expect Dartford Warbler to get an aggressive front running ride from Danny Cook in this – and I do think he will be tough to pass.

In fact, if opportunity had presented itself, I would have considered tipping him.

He was 8/1 last night – but was 11/2 by the time I could have tipped him this morning  – and that price was under extreme pressure.

He’s 7/2 as I type this – and that is tight, even assuming he will be going for it this afternoon.

That said, I do expect him to run a big race.

His connections appear to have been quite clever, in so much as they have campaigned him over hurdles this season.

He’s not really a hurdler – and as a consequence, he’s not run too well.

His hurdle rating has been dropped 10lb – but the handicapper has also dropped his chase rating a few pounds, presumably in the belief that the horse is generally in decline.
I suspect that is not the case.

Certainly I think he can win a chase off his current mark of 116 – and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him prove that this afternoon !

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

None

Mentions

Leic 2:20 The Organist (S )

Weth 3:30 Dartford Warbler (P )

Eye Catchers

Leic 2:50 Ballyarthur