Daily write-up - Jan 26th

With Fakenham abandoned due to a frozen track, there are just the 2 NH meetings today: at Warwick and Gowran Park.

It’s Thystes day at Gowran – a day I always look forward to.
I had high hopes of finding the winner again (who could ever forget Jadanlis win in 2013 !) – but it’s not going to happen – officially, anyway…

I was reading a piece in the RP Weekender yesterday, by Tom Segal (Pricewise).

He was bemoaning the fact that it’s nearly impossible to bet ante-post nowadays.
The bookmakers price up the races months in advance – and won’t really take a bet.

They then let small punters adjust their odds, until the market accurately reflects the chances of all the horses.
They put a big over-round on top of the prices – and bingo – they are almost guaranteed to win on the race…

The trouble is, the bookmakers operate exactly the same way mid week…

I was eyeing up 3 tips for today – but for one reason or another, it’s not been possible to issue any of them.

The first was Bonny Kate in the Thystes.

The race is a competitive, 18 runner handicap – so why the bookmakers need to put a 30% over round on the best book, is beyond me.

More than that, with  early favourite, The Crafty Butcher a likely non runner, there will be at least a 10p deduction on any prices (15p if they have him priced up at 11/2 or less).

They are basically saying, ‘we don’t want you to bet in this race – and if you do, we are going to rip you off on the price’…

The second was Financial Climate at Warwick.

I didn’t actually expect Warwick to survive its inspection, so I didn’t pay too much attention to the card, yesterday.
However, I did spot Financial Climate – and thought he had a sporting chance of beating favourite, Yanmare.
Because of their direct form line, I didn’t expect Financial Climate to be backed.
He was 6/1 all yesterday evening – but was backed down to 4/1 at 7:00 this morning !

What’s that all about ?!

Anyone who backs a horse at 7:00 in the morning is likely to lose their account.

Unfortunately for us, all it means is that the horse is no longer a viable price for tipping…

The third one was Tiday Zag, at Gowran.

In fairness, he is one that I knew I would always struggle to tip – which is why I made him an official eye catcher, when he ran last time.

Hopefully some of you were able to act early and take the general 33/1 on offer last night (I know that Liam backed him yesterday evening, in his local Paddy Power shop).

By the time I could have tipped him, he was a 14/1 shot – and for one so speculative, that feels about the right price…

So all in all, a frustrating start to the day !

Ofcourse you are still free to back all 3 horses if you wish – and that will certainly be worth considering, should they return to ‘value’ prices (accepting that backing ‘drifters’ tends to be a little risky).
I’m really not sure how best to handle these kind of situations – which is why I’m gravitating towards producing early write-ups mid-week and not worrying too much about tipping.

Hopefully, a few of you (like Liam) got on both Bonny Kate and Tidy Zag early, because they had received positive mentions in the past (Bonny Kate when I tried to tip her over Christmas – and Tidy Zag as an eye catcher) – because trying to tip them in the normal tipping window (and get a decent price) is nearly impossible…

Anyway, here are my thoughts on why you should be interested in the 3 horses in question…

Gowran Park

1:20 I first noticed Tidy Zag just over 3 years ago, when he bolted up at Cork.
He followed that up with 2 more comfortable wins, at Tramore and Fairyhouse – and looked a horse who could be going places.

However, he then was off the track for the best part of a year, suggesting some physical issue.

He’s run 6 times since his return – and hadn’t shown a great deal, until his most recent effort at Limerick.

That was his second run after another long break – and he put in a decent effort to finish 4^th.

There was a marked improvement between his Punchestown run and his Limerick run – and if he shows similar improvement today, I can see him going close.

Certainly he is now handicapped to be competitive.

He runs today off a mark 99, which is 5lb lower than his last winning mark (and 17lb lower than his highest rating).
Ofcouse, he’s not getting any younger (he’s now 12) – and the long term effect of any physical issue needs to be considered.
In short, you want a price for the risk.

However, this is a low grade race – and if he is able to recapture something close to his best, he should be there or thereabouts…

3:00 I tipped Bonny Kate for the Paddy Power chase at Leopardstown over the Christmas period – and I was very keen on her.
However, she needs soft ground to show her best and was pulled out of the race late in the morning, because conditions weren’t deemed suitable.

Hopefully she will get soft ground today – and if she does, I think she will run a very big race.

I’ve mentioned before how it is an advantage to race prominently in these big field handicaps - and Bonny Kate likes to do just that.

She jumps and travels well – and whilst she isn’t spectacularly well handicapped, she still looks the one to beat.

That said, if I’m honest, I won’t be too surprised if something does beat her…

There are 4 or 5 runners in the race who have the potential to be a fair bit better than their rating – and any one of them, could be too good for Bonny Kate today.
That said, they are likely to need luck in running – whereas I would expect her to run her race regardless.

In terms of the dangers, then chief amongst them is Prince of Scars.

He is thrown in on his hurdles form – but is very inexperienced over fences and that may count against him.

If Jack Kennedy can get him jumping and keep him in touch, he could win this with his head in his chest.

Jetstream Jack is another unexposed novice who could go very well – if things fall right for him.

There is not a lot between him and Price of Scars on their most recent runs (in a grade 1 chase) – though I think Price of Scars is the more talented.

Rogue Trader and Montys Meadow are slightly more exposed – but still have plenty of scope for improvement: whilst Ucello Conti, Pleasant Company and Champagne West have very strong connections and could all run well.

Of the outsiders, then Wounded Warrior is the most interesting – but this does look a race likely to go to a fancied horse.

The question is, which one…

I think Bonny Kate looks a very good bet to at least be placed: with Prince of Scars the most likely winner, if everything clicks for him.

Warwick

2:00 I was tempted to take a risk on Financial Climate in this…

He ran pretty well on his most recent outing at Newbury – and he could get the run of the race from the front today.

I always feel that Warwick is a track which suits front runners. There are a lot of fences close together on the back straight and a horse can get into a rhythm up front, it can apply pressure to the jumping of those in behind.

I can see Financial Climate getting into that situation and it causing a few issues for his rivals – the question will be, whether he will be able to last home…

He couldn’t last time at Newbury - and he ultimately finished a fair way behind Yanmare.

The 2lb weight pull won’t be enough for him to reverse the form – but the track and the way the race unfolds, might mean he is able.

Financial Climate has a preference for decent ground – and that is another concern, as todays soft ground will also make it more of a stamina test.

Unfortunately, that will suit a couple of his rivals: Yanmare and Incentivise.

I suspect that Financial Climate will look as if he has the race won, at some point (probably towards the end of the back straight) – the question will be whether he can hold on.
Maybe a pre-race back with a view to laying in running, is the best way to play him.

Best of luck if you choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

None

Mentions

GowP 3:00 Bonny Kate (O )

Warw 2:00 Financial Climate (C )

Eye Catchers

GowP 1:20 Tidy Zag