Daily write-up - Jan 10th

Another early delivery of the write-up !

There is just the one NH meeting again today: at Lingfield.

And as was the case yesterday, it’s relatively low class racing and there is uncertainty regarding the state of the ground.

Yesterday, that was caused by likely rain: today it’s simply a case of a vague going description.

Officially, the ground is described as ‘soft – heavy in places’ – but my guess is that it will be edging towards the ‘heavy’ end of the spectrum (Lingfield is a poor draining course).

Both of yesterdays official mentions ran well – which was nice to see.

Querry Horse was a lucky winner – taking advantage of Cyrius Moriviere unshipping his jockey.

Whatever the outcome, it was pleasing to see the race pan out roughly as I expected, with Hammersly Lake never really looking likely to win – despite his short price.

If Querry Horse was little fortunate, then Towering was probably a little unfortunate.

Without the late rain, I suspect he would have gone very close indeed – but the softening ground did little for his chances.

At least it improved his price – and at 10/1, his SP was much bigger than his early morning price.

There are a couple more mentions to keep an eye on today – and an official eye catcher.

It’s still a pretty quiet day though…

Here are my thoughts on the days main 3 races…

Lingfield

2:00 This is a strange race, in so much as there are question marks over all 8 of the runners…

I can understand why Song Saa has been made favourite - she is the least exposed runner in the field and represents strong connections – but I’m not sure she is going to relish a slog in the mud, over 3 miles.

She has looked a dubious stayer to me, in her 2 most recent outings – and they were over shorter and on better ground.

I would not be convinced about Irish Thistle over the trip, either; whilst Dessert Joe seems to be in decline and Themanfromminella is likely to struggle under top weight, on his seasonal debut.

Both Lord Heathfield and Heros or Ghosts, should run their races – and whilst neither looks particularly well handicapped, it would be no surprised if either one proved good enough to win.

That said, if I were to get involved in the race, I would probably take a risk on Coolking.

He finished in front of Golanova last time – and whilst I wouldn’t read too much into that (both were very well beaten), he was making his seasonal debut and has been dropped 8lb as a result of the run.

That is generous – and means that he gets to run today off a mark lower than he has won from in the past.
He will be straighter for his debut – and should be able to get an uncontested lead (which wasn’t the case last time).
The blinkers are also reapplied – so there are plenty of positives with him.

The negative is that he has barely run a race in his last 6 outings over fences - but he has won twice over hurdles in that period and will handle todays conditions.

If he is fit enough to do himself justice –and Tom Cannon chooses to make it a test of stamina – then I can see him breaking a number of his rivals.

He is risky, there is no doubt about that – but he is probably not too bad a bad bet, at 9/1…

2:30 I’m sure a few of you will have spotted Sea Wall running in this – and under ideal conditions.

He is an official eye catcher, on the back of his most recent run – also over todays course and distance – and he will be perfectly suited by the much softer ground.

It is the combination of course and ground, that cause him to have appeal today –and have resulted in his odds almost halving from the 7/1 that was on offer when the race was initially priced up yesterday evening.

At that early price, I might have taken a risk on him – but I do think it would have been a risk…

Firstly, he is held on form from his last run, by 2 of todays rivals: Steel City and Coeur Tantre.
Both finished quite a way in front of him – and whilst they are a little worse off at the weights, both have apprentices in the saddle today, to offset the weight differences.
From a pure handicapping perspective, Sea Wall shouldn’t really beat either of them…

Ofcourse the heavy ground (assuming that is what it is) is likely to make a big difference to the result, but it will need to (particularly as Steel City has also shown himself capable of running well in heavy ground).

The second issue for Sea Wall, is the presence in the race of 2 totally unexposed novices.

Crievehill and Druids Folly have each only run twice over hurdles – and both have already shown plenty of ability and seem likely to handle todays ground.

It’s nearly impossible to get a proper handle on either of them – but their opening marks of 122 and 118 respectively, don’t look overly harsh.

In short, there are reasons in the form book for opposing Sea Wall – and a fair bit of guesswork required with a couple of his rivals.

Without his ‘heavy ground at Lingfield’ history, I suspect Sea Wall would be a totally unfancied outsider – but people see patterns nowadays and are prepared to back horses into silly prices, because of them…

I wouldn’t really want to oppose him – but I couldn’t be interested in him at 4/1.

I couldn’t be interested in Druid’s Folly at 7/4, either…

I would therefore either leave the race alone or take a much bigger price about one of Steel City, Crievehill or Coeur Tantre (though heavy ground would be a worry for the last named).

3:00 This looks a fair race – but I think it will take a good one to beat Petite Power.

He was an impressive winner over hurdles at Bangor last week – and provided he has recovered from those efforts, he will take a lot of beating in this.

He certainly looked a much improved performer last week – something which the market anticipated.
He runs off the same mark this afternoon and it’s little surprise, to see him installed as a short priced favourite today.
That said, he looks to be facing at least 3 decent rivals today, in the shape of On the Road, Top and Drop and Coole Charmer.

The former has been a bit unlucky to bump into a couple of well handicapped horses on his last 2 outings and looks sure to run his race.

Top and Drop makes his chasing debut today and has plenty of potential; whilst Coole Charmer is one I was interested in last time at Bangor – though whilst he ran well, his limitations did appear to be exposed.

I could see all three of them running well – but I’ll be a little surprised if they are able to beat Petite Power.

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

None

Mentions

Ling 2:00 Coolking (S )

Ling 3:00 Petite Power (P )

Eye Catchers

Ling 2:30 Sea Wall