Daily write-up - Jan 27th

There are 3 NH meeting this afternoon: at Huntingdon, Doncaster and Taunton…

Before I move on to them, just a few words about yesterday – which despite the frustrations of the morning, ended up a bit of a nothing day…

Bonny Kate ran really well in the Thystes – as I thought she would: but found a couple too good for her – as I feared might be the case.

That said, I didn’t really expect one of them to be Champagne West – who ran a personal best.

He must now be on the fringe of Gold Cup class - and has certainly improved since joining the excellent Henry de Bromhead (or more specifically, his jumping has improved and that has enabled him to fulfil his potential).

At Warwick, Financial Climate looked as if he was going to win the handicap chase (touched 1.6 in running) – but he didn’t get home.

Again, that wasn’t a great surprise – particularly as the ground there, looked quite holding.

Finally, Tidy Zag made no show in the handicap hurdle at Gowran.

I was actually a little disappointed by that (despite his price) bearing in mind his previous run – but it would seem that he is in terminal decline…

Anyway, on to today.

The meetings at Doncaster and Taunton don’t have too much to recommend them (Aux Ptit Soins runs at the former – and there is an interesting event to close the card at the latter) – so I am happy enough to let them pass without mention.

However, there is an excellent card at Huntington (assuming it gets the go-ahead) and it does deserve a bit of time…

I actually got quite close to issuing a tip – but decided to make it a Mention instead (one of a pair).

There are also a couple of eye catchers running – so enough to keep interest levels up…

Here are my thoughts on the main races on the card.

Huntingdon

1:30 Omessa Has was an eye catcher last time, when she ran over hurdles at Kempton, during the Christmas period.

I thought she showed distinct promise that day, on what was only her third run in England.

My expectation was that she could build on that run over hurdles - so whilst it’s not a complete surprise to see her over fences today, it’s not exactly what I had in mind !

I’m sure she could run well today – but as we’ve never seen her jump a fence, there would be a lot of guesswork involved.
Even if she is a natural over the bigger obstacles (she has tried a couple of times previously in her native France), she will have her work cut out to beat Winner Massagot and Theos Charm, who have both demonstrated a reasonable level of form in novice chases this season.

The 8lb she receives from her 2 main rivals could swing things in her favour – but it would just be speculation and I there is no temptation to get involved with her at a best price of 7/4…

2:00 This looks a really decent race – and Icing on the Cake very much appears the one to beat.

He may only have won a 4 horse contest on his chasing debut last time, but I suspect it is strong form and a mere 2lb rise from the handicapper appears to be very lenient.

He has to race over an extra half mile today – but I doubt that will be an issue.

He opened up at 6/1 last night – but that didn’t last long and the 7/2 this morning, is far more like it.

Colins Brother and Sir Note are the 2 other last time out winners in the field – and both of them are also stepping up half a mile in trip.
Again however, I doubt that will be a problem – and they both still look fairly handicapped…

With 3 such strong contenders heading the market, it would be folly to take them on.

Which is a shame, as I could easily have been tempted by a small play on Tjongejonge, at a big price.
Unlike the 3 mentioned, he is dropping down in trip today – but he has plenty of pace, so I don’t think that will be an issue.

In truth, he’s not an easy one to get a handle on, as after winning impressively on his seasonal debut at Market Rasen, he didn’t fare so well next time at Newbury.

However, that was in a hot contest and he was still travelling quite nicely when making a bad blunder at the third last.

He’s been given 2 months to recover from that run – and I also wonder if he may have had his wind tweaked (he has been operated on in the past).

I just feel that he could be a bit better than his current mark of 129 – and the booking of Richard Johnson for the ride, is a big positive.

2:30 Lady of Longstone is the second eye catcher running on the card – but it’s hard to think that she will be much more than a hare in this company.

She likes to front run – and I suspect the others will be happy for her to take on that role – but I doubt she will still be in front when the important part of the race is reached !

In truth, it’s not easy to figure out who will be in front at that point…

It’s very interesting to see Ruby over for the day, along with Whiteout – and she definitely has a big chance based on her run at Punchestown, last April.

She’s not looked as good in her 2 runs so far this season – but she could be gradually coming to the boil.

Kotikova and Lifeboat Mona appear to be the 2 other main players.

The former was high class in her native France – and should be better for her first run for Nicky Henderson. Assessing her current level of ability is guesswork, however…

It’s easier to assess Lifeboat Mona – and she certainly sets a decent standard.

Todays trip will be a new test for her – but she wasn’t stopping last time over half a mile shorter…

The other one worthy of a mention is Happy Diva.
She was massively impressive last time – but in far weaker company.

It will be fascinating to see how she copes with today huge step up in class.

This isn’t a race that could be approached with any confidence – but it should be a really interesting one to watch…

3:00 This is another really difficult race to call, with the top 4 runners all returning to hurdles having run over fences last time.

All 4 can be given some sort of a chance, based on their old hurdles form.

Knock House and Balyculla are 2 others best known for chasing – and trying to figure out how they will adapt, returned to the smaller obstacles is not easy…

My inclination is to leave all 6 alone and focus on the horses who have been running recently over hurdles.

The most obvious one is Call to Order.

He was a good winner of a decent contest at Cheltenham last time – and looks the one to beat today off a mark just 7lb higher.

Unfortunately however, the market is wise to him and there is no margin in a price of 7/2.

El Terremoto is the other one of major interest.
He too has strong form – however he is stepping up in trip this afternoon.
That could go either way – and he might be worth risking at a price, but again, there is no margin in a quote of 5/1.

3:30 The final one of a hatrick of very tricky races !

I was initially tempted by Muthabir – and he definitely has a chance – but so too do quite a few of the runners…

The field can be split into runners with proven form – and those with potential.

Chic Theatre heads the former camp, based on his last time out win at Market Rasen – though he still also has a fair bit of potential as well.

Awesome Rosie, Bank Bonus, Aliandy and Mondello are 4 other runners who have been in good form recently – and victory for any of them would not be a surprise.

Mondello is possibly the most interesting, as he is 8lb ‘well in’ based on his recent run at Wincanton – and also has Harry Cobden taking off a further 3lb.

From a pure handicapping perspective, he is probably the one to beat.

However there are also 3 unexposed runners who have the potential to be much better than their marks.

Krugermac has just his second run in a handicap, having disappointed on his handicap debut earlier this month; whilst both Tipperairy and Bodyswerve, are making their handicap debuts.

All 3 have plenty of potential and are very difficult to quantify.

With it possible to make a case for 9 of the 12 runners, a watching brief is definitely the order of the day !

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.

Advice Sumary

Tips

None

Mentions

Hunt 2:00 Tjongejonge (O )

Hunt 3:30 Muthabir (O )

Eye Catchers

Hunt 1:30 Omessa Has

Hunt 2:30 Lady of Longstone