Daily write-up - Jan 31st

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Lingfield and Southwell in England – plus Down Royal in the north of Ireland.

It’s all low grade stuff however, and if it weren’t for the presence of a couple of eye catchers, running at Lingfield and Southwell respectively, I would probably take the day off.

Certainly, there is little of interest at Down Royal – but I’ve managed to find a second race to preview at each of the other tracks.

Here are my brief thoughts.

Southwell

1:30 Elkstone was an eye catcher on his seasonal debut, when taking a crashing fall at Huntingdon.
He had jumped and travelled really well to that point, but it was still a little surprising that he was made favourite for his next run at Towcester.
That didn’t strike me as a track he would appreciate, and sure enough, he ran disappointingly.

He ran a little better on his most recent outing, when up against the very well handicapped Caprice D’Anglais.

However, he was almost certainly beaten, when taking another fall at the second last.

For such a good jumper, it’s a bit surprising that he has fallen on 2 of his last 3 runs – and that is definitely a concern today.
Particularly as he is again likely to have competition for the lead – this time in the shape of Working Title.
I can’t see the 2 of them doing each other any favours – and I would be inclined to look elsewhere for the winner.
The obvious place is Un Prophete, as he won a better race that this, just last week.

However, he gets a 7lb penalty for that win, which takes his weight today above 12st.
He may be up to the task – but even money strikes me as a short price to find out…

My 2 against the field are Texas Forever and Bally Lagen.
The former ran well against Caprice D’Anglais at Hereford last month – and through that horse should have the beating of Elkstone.

Bally Lagen won a low grade race at Leicester, earlier this month and receives over 30lb from Un Prophete today.
That is a lot of weight – and whilst Bally Lagen was struggling close home at Leicester, he will find todays test less demanding, over a shorter trip and on an easier track.

It is quite possible that how this race is run, will have a big impact on the result.

My guess is that Elkstone and Working Title will go off hard and set it up for the other 3.

Texas Forever is probably the most likely winner: but Bally Lagan offers the best value, at around 10/1.

3:40 Lady Buttons is another recent winner, who is reappearing under a penalty which takes her weight over 12 stone.

She is also very short in the betting – and running over a longer trip.

She might be up to the job, but I certainly won’t be paying to find out…

Amantius and Alfred Roller are of interest – but I’m quite keen on the chances of Nightfly.

She’s had the mandatory 3 runs in novice events and been given an opening mark of 105.
That looks fair enough to me – and I thought there was definite promise in her run last time, at Hereford.
The booking of Brian Hughes looks to be a positive move – and she’s probably not a bad bet at 10/1.

The trouble is, this is a low grade 16 runner handicap – so almost anything is possible !
That said, I’ll be a little disappointed if she doesn’t run a reasonable race…

Lingfield

2:25 Sea Wall is the second eye catcher running today.
He caught the eye on his penultimate run at this course, before disappointing a little last time.

In fairness, he didn’t run badly on his most recent outing – however, everything was in his favour that day, so I expected a little more.

Everything is again in his favour today (heavy ground, 2 miles, hurdles and Lingfield), so I would expect him to run his race – the question is whether that will be good enough to win…

Strictly on the book, he should finish almost along side Darwins Theory.
That one finished 6 lengths ahead of him last time and is 6lb worse off today.

I’m inclined to favour Sea Wall to reverse the form – but I may just be bias !

Honey Pound is definitely well handicapped – but I’m not sure he will relish the heavy ground: conversely, Annie Alaimm will have no issue with the ground – but she may no longer be well handicapped.

The springer in the market is Dormouse.

His last 3 wins have been over todays course and distance – and on heavy ground – so the market support is understandable.
However, he ran really poorly last time and is now 12 years old.

If he remains strong in the market through to the off, I would take him seriously – though my inclination without that knowledge, is to take him on.

It’s not an easy race to call.

I think Sea Wall has got a chance – and if there were 8 in the race, he would certainly be worth getting involved with EW, as I would expect him to run his race.
However, I couldn’t be confident that his race will be quite good enough to get him home in front.

4:00 This is another open looking race, in which a chance can be given to all 7 of the runners…

At the prices, I am most attracted to the bottom horse, Tara Bridge.

He is closely matched with Doitforthevillage, on their run at this course last month – but is available at nearly twice the price.

In fairness, he did disappoint a little last time at Chepstow – but that was quite a strong race for the grade.

Tara Bridge is relatively unexposed for a 9 year old, having only had 10 careers starts and just 2 over fences - so he should still have scope for improvement.

He should also have no issue with todays conditions, and I would expect him to run a big race, with Tom Cannon back in the saddle.

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

None

Mentions

Sthw 3:40 Nightfly (O )

Ling 4:00 Tara Bridge (O )

Eye Catchers

Sthw 1:30 Elkstone

Ling 2:25 Sea Wall