Daily write-up - Jan 25th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Ludlow and Catterick in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

Things improve slightly today – if for no other reason than we don’t have to contend with numerous morning inspections before we know that the racing will actually take place !

The meeting at Fairyhouse looks one to avoid, from a betting perspective: but Ludlow and Catterick both stage a couple of fair races…

That said, we do seem to be at a point in the season, where the results have a degree of randomness about them – caused no doubt by the winter ground and some of the busier horses, now requiring a break…

Certainly, betting opportunities need to be carefully selected – and with the very tight early markets, there is nothing that warrants being tipped today (hence the early write-up !).

There are however a couple of eye catchers running – and a couple of speculative mentions as well – so a few horses to keep an eye on…

As no doubt many of you are aware, it’s the Thyestes chase at Gowran Park tomorrow, and I may possibly have an early tip for it, which I will want to get out before Pricewise messes up the market.

If that is the case, I will look to issue early this evening – preceded by an advance notification…

Here are my thoughts on a few of todays main races.

Ludlow

2:15 I would be quite happy to take on the 2 markets leaders in this, as neither one looks particularly robust.

Winged Crusader was raised 10lb for winning a very weak race at Bangor last time – and is also without the 3lb claim of Jamie Bargary this afternoon.

That means he is effectively almost a stone higher in the weights – and todays mark has proved beyond him in the past.
I wouldn’t say he couldn’t win: but I would say that he’s no value at 2/1…

Azert De Couer has to defy a mark slightly more than a stone higher than for his last win – and he bled when trying to follow up that victory, 13 days later.

He’s not as exposed as Winged Crusader, so it is possible he is still improving – it is also possible that he will appreciate today longer trip and he has been given plenty of time to recover.
That said, there are enough question marks to make a price of 7/2, relatively easy to resist…

The trouble is, figuring out what to take them on with, as non of their rivals has a particularly attractive profile…

Twirling Magic is potentially thrown in – but that has been the case for his past few runs and you would really want to see him win again (or at least go close), before you supported him.

Ultimatum du Roy should run his race – and could easily place – but I would expect there to be something better handicapped in the race.

I could be very interested in Sunny Ledgend – if the ground were softer.

However, I think he needs soft – or even heavy - ground, to be seen at his best.

I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the 3 bottom weights were to spring a surprise – I just can’t quite figure out which one.

Half cases could be made for all 3 – but I would struggle to do much more than that.
If forced, I would probably side with An Poc Ar Buile.
He didn’t run too badly last time, on his return from a break – and he should appreciate todays longer trip.
He will almost certainly be held out the back by Paul Moloney and try to creep into things late on.

His jumping can be suspect – but the Ludlow fences are generally quite forgiving.

He would be a speculative shout - but he might be worth a tiny interest at 14/1.

3:25 Keep Moving was an eye catcher on his penultimate run at Newbury, behind Cepage.

I also thought he ran pretty well last time, at Chepstow.

Both of those runs were over 2 miles – as is todays

I suspect he will do better when stepped up in trip – but that doesn’t mean he can’t win over the minimum.
Certainly, he showed enough speed to keep in touch last time, and can consider himself fortunate to have been dropped 3lb in the ratings, despite finishing fourth.

Ubaltique finished a couple of places in front of him that day – so the win of that one on Saturday, franked the form.

He could be worth a risk in this race – though it is very difficult to properly assess a few of his rivals.

Both Big Windmill and Un Prophete are making their chasing debuts and could improve significantly on their hurdles form; whilst Bise d’Estruval is having only his second run in the UK and could still be almost anything.

Nefyn Bay has arguably the best form over fences – but I don’t think he sets an unsurpassable standard…

As is often the case in races like this, I suspect the market will provide useful guidance.

I would be most interested in Keep Moving, Un Prophete and Big Windmill – and which ever of those is best backed, is probably the most likely winner.

Catterick

2:30 Jaleo is the second eye catcher running this afternoon.
He caught the eye on his penultimate run, when scoring at Lingfield.

He did very well to win that day - and a 7lb weight rise looked quiet lenient (though the handicapper couldn’t really have given him any more).
On the back of that run, he was sent off an 8/1 shot for the class 1 Lanzarote hurdle at Kempton, 11 days ago – but he fell at the very first flight.

Assuming he is non the worse for the fall, then he must go close today.

This race is significantly weaker – and it is likely to be run on better ground.
Jaleo is lumbered with top weight – but his conditional jockey is able to claim 7lb, so that will help.

There are only 2 issues: firstly the presence of bottom weight, Nietzsche – and secondly his price !

In truth, it is impossible to properly assess Nietzsche.

He’s only 4 and has very limited hurdling experience. However, he does seem to be improving – and he receives 24lb from Jaleo today (taking into account he claims of both their riders).

I’ve no idea whether that will balance things out between the two of them  – but it’s a very big weight concession.

If the price was ‘right’ it might be worth taking a risk on Jaleo – but 9/4 is quite tight…

Half cases could be made for both Pillard and Italian Riviera – though I will be a little surprised if the race isn’t won by either Jaleo or Nietzsche.

3:40 The booking of Brian Hughes for Lightening Rod, really catches my eye in this.

Hughes doesn’t have that many rides for Mick Easterby – and he’s not ridden the horse previously.
In fact, Lightening Rod tends to be ridden by 3lb claimer, Harry Bannister, so the change of jockey almost looks like a statement of intent.

Certainly Lightening Rod is well enough handicapped to win a race such as this – and he will get the decent ground that he needs.
The issue is his age – as he is now 12 years old and almost certainly in decline.

As always, it’s a question of whether his mark is dropping fast enough to offset the reduced ability.

Generally speaking, if a Mick Easterby horse is going to run well, it is backed – so I would expect the market to guide on his chances…

Best of luck if you choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

None

Mentions

Lud 2:15 An Poc Ar Buile (S )

Catt 3:40 Lightening Rod (S )

Eye Catchers

Lud 3:25 Keep Moving

Catt 2:30 Jaleo