Daily write-up - Jan 21st

There are just the 2 NH meetings this afternoon: at Haydock in the UK – and Navan in Ireland.

It was disappointing to see both Ascot and Taunton abandoned early this morning – but not too surprising.

I’m not sure where this cold snap appeared from - but its timing isn’t great.

Hopefully it won’t last too long…

Aside from the long awaited return of Jezki (and an eye catcher in the beginners chase), there isn’t much of interest at Navan.

The card at Haydock is much more enticing: and I’ve managed to find a couple of tips and a Top Pick, so it’s quite a busy day.

Following on from yesterday, I did a quick search of last seasons blog, to remind myself of my views on Court Frontier, from when he was running in Ireland.

I’d forgotten how closely I was following the horse - and he got a name check on 3 separate occasions (not many Irish horse would achieve that in a season).

I had clearly spotted his latent ability – I just didn’t expect it to be more than a year before we were able to benefit from it – and on the other side of the Irish Sea.

You need a long memory – and a sharp one – if you are to make this game pay !

Anyway, I just thought I would share that, if for no other reason than to demonstrate how useful the old write-ups can be - provided you remember to look at them !

Here are my thoughts on todays main races….

Haydock

12:55 This race looks far too trappy to consider getting involved with…

There are at least half a dozen horses who I could be interested in – including Hastrubal, who was an eye catcher on his penultimate run at Huntingdon.

He followed that up by running quite well on his handicap debut in a relatively hot race at Ascot.

That was over 2m5f and he travelled strongly to the home turn before running out of steam.
It’s interesting that he is dropped to the minimum trip today, and I would certainly give him a chance.
The trouble is, there are plenty others in the race who I could also give a chance…

Chieftains Choice was a big eye catcher last time – and it wasn’t just my eye he caught !

The stewards weren’t happy with the ride he was given at Leicester and he was banned from running for 40 days.
It was almost inevitable that he would be installed at a short price in the early betting – but I’ll be a little surprised if he wins (as it will make his last run look too blatant).

Lough Kent won well last time – and is still nicely handicapped on his old form (primarily over fences). He must have a good chance this afternoon.

Get Rhythm and Free Stone Hill are both making their handicap debuts and represent yards who have to be taken seriously.

Either one could be well enough handicapped to get involved – but it would be guess work…

I also wouldn’t be surprised to see big runs from either Heath Hunter.

In short, too many possibles – and no obvious route into the race…

1:30 It’s no surprise to see Politologue a short priced favourite for this, as he’s been massively impressive on his 2 chase starts this season.

True, he’s only beaten total of 7 rivals – but he’s been foot perfect on both occasion and looked as if he could be from the highest drawer.

That said, today represents his stiffest task by far: not only is he facing some strong rivals, but he has to concede weight to them all.

It will require a very decent performance, if he is to win this.

Waiting Patiently is the obvious one to take him on with, as he too has been very impressive on his 2 chase starts this season.

That said, his wins today have been in a much lower grade, so this afternoon will be the acid test for him.

At the prices, the one who interests me most, is Maximiser…

To be honest, I’m not sure why he is the outsider of the field, and I think he is worth a speculative stab.

On official ratings, he is the best horse in the field – and whilst he hasn’t got the scope for improvement of a few of his rivals, he does set a decent standard.

He will love todays ground and course – and on his run at Carlisle last season, when he spilt Silsol and Seeyouatmidnight, he will take a bit of beating in this.

He is clearly a fragile sort, as he’s only seen the racecourse 3 times since Carlisle – but such horses tend to be ready to run their races, when they do make an appearance.
He was a little disappointing on his seasonal debut at Newbury – but that was over hurdles and 3 miles and I would expect him to run much better this afternoon.

Certainly, a general price of 16/1 seems to under-estimate his chance and I think he is worth a small risk…

2:40 The New One is likely to take plenty of beating in this.

Given the right conditions, he is only a few pounds shy of Champion hurdle class – and the conditions today look sufficiently right, for him to be able to run close to his best.

If he does that, then I’m not sure any of his rivals are good enough to beat him…

I’m very surprised to see L’Ami Serge a shorter price than him in the betting.

He does receive 8lb from The New One – but he is an 8lb inferior horse over hurdles – and probably needs a little further than the bare 2 miles.

Irving is the main danger, based on ratings – but he’s not a horse I’m particularly keen on.

Cyrus Darius and Clyne are two very interesting runners.

The former is returning from a long absence – but was very progressive when last seen 18 months ago. That said he was still a fair way shy of Champion hurdle class.

The same is true of Clyne – though he too has been very progressive this season and it’s interesting that Evan Williams is letting him take his chance on a race such as this.

All things being equal though, The New One should win this – and if you can get 2/1, I think that’s a good bet.

Top Pick material, me thinks !

3:15 The key to this race, appears to be the Rehearsal chase, which was run at Newcastle at the end of November.

That race was won by Otago Trail, with Bristol de Mai second, Definitly Red third, Bishops Road fourth and Virak sixth.

Bishops Road was making his seasonal debut that day, but travelled very strongly into the race, before tiring up the home straight.
That was understandable, as he was being aimed at the Welsh National, so was always likely to benefit from the run and not be given too hard a time.

As a prep for the Welsh National, it was perfect – however that plan came unstuck when there was unseasonably quick ground at Chepstow.

Bishops Road wants soft ground – or worse – so it was no surprise to see him struggle in the big race.

As a result of that run however, he was dropped 3lb in the handicap – and that is in addition to the 2lb he was dropped for his run at Newcaslte.

As a consequence he is able to meet all of his rivals from the Newcastle race, on better terms.
He is 10lb better off with Otago Trail; 5lb with Bristol De Mai; 12lb with Defintly Red; and even 2lb withVirak.

Based on that form, he should have the beating of them all – considering he also was likely to have been most in need of the outing.

Even if that is the case however, he is not guaranteed to win today...
This is a very hot race and a case can be made for quite a few of the others.

Alary makes his debut for Colin Tizzard, having been almost top class in his native France. If he is fully tuned, I would expect him to go very close – but there must be a chance he will improve for todays run.

Sausolito Boy is reasonably handicapped and should handle the conditions; whilst I could see Seventh Sky outrunning his dismissive odds.

Vintage Clouds is totally unexposed – though this is a very big ask for a novice.

Certainly, this won’t be easy for Bishops Road - however he is handicapped to run a big race and is already proven over the course and on soft ground.

I would expect him to run his race – and I think that gives him every chance of at least placing.

Hopefully, maybe even placing first !

3:50 I’m not sure that a bare 2 miles on soft ground, will suit many in this field…

Wuff, Granville Island and Suit Yourself would all prefer a longer trip: whilst Imjoeking, Olivers Gold and Back by Midnight, would prefer quicker ground than they are likely to get.

As a consequence, the 2 to concentrate of appear to be Ubaltique and Pistol Park…

The former is an eye catcher – and will be having his final run as such.

He caught the eye at Wetherby at the end of November and has run well in his 2 subsequent starts.

He finished fourth in a very hot race at Haydock in December; before finishing runner up at Chepstow a fortnight ago.

I struggle to see him out of the places again today – but he’s not one who I could ever have total faith in, from a win perspective.

Therefore the value in a quote of 6/1 is limited – even assuming all 8 go to post…

Pistol Park is just about the most likely winner of the race – but he is also favourite.

He has done well since relocating from Ireland to Brian Ellison: winning two of his 4 races and being placed in the other two.

Again, I would expect him to run his race today – but 5/2 is far too short to consider getting involved with.

4:20 It’s difficult to see an angle into this race, with the 4 horses of most interest, the top 4 in the betting…

The Dan Skelton trained novice, Aintree my Dream, is arguably the one of most interested, based on his creditable run in a grade 2 event at Sandown, last time.

However, it’s very difficult to assess the strength of that form accurately – and is price of 9/4 leaves little room for error.

Splash of Ginge bounced back to form when wining at this course last time and is still feasibly handicapped off a mark of 137.

However, he is not one you could have a great deal of faith in…

That’s not true of Sirop du Menthe and he’s a horse I like very much.

He caught us out when just getting the better of Red Devil Lads on seasonal debut at Ffos Las, back in November, before running a slightly muted race next time, at Sandown…

I would expect him to run better on today softer ground – but he still might find one or two too good…

The one of most interest, is probably Dadsintrouble.

He’s not been seen since taking a fall at Cheltenham’s October meeting - but he was still going very well at the time.
He was a big eye catcher when running at Newton Abbot in the spring and there has to be a chance that his current mark of 117 underestimates him.

His stable has just hit a bit of a purple patch – and he is their only runner on the card.

However, the ground is a big concern – despite him having won on soft in the past.

I would definitely have taken a chance on him at a price (say 8/1) – but he was 6/1 early and is now shortening…

In the circumstances, it will have to be a watching brief.

Navan

3:20 Just a quick mention for Moonshine Lad in this.
He was an eye catcher on his penultimate run in a beginners chase at Fairyhouse, at the beginning of December.

That was in the expectation that he would then be moved into handicaps, from a decent mark.

However, he ran in a beginners chase last time – and it’s the same again today…

In fairness, he might be able to win one of them – he might even be able to win today – though he will have his work cut out to do so.

He is held on form from his last two runs, by both Acapella Bourgeious and Burgas, so he will have his work cut out to beat them (never mind race favourite, Arbre de Vie).

My feeling is that he will only come good once he is handicapping – and by then, he may well have run out of opportunities as an eye catcher…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

BRT Hayd 1:30 Maximiser 0.125pt EW 16/1
BRT Hayd 3:15 Bishops Road 0.25pt EW 16/1

Top Picks

Hayd 2:40 The New One

Mentions

Hayd 4:20 Dadsintrouble (P )

Eye Catchers

Hayd 12:55 Hastrubal

Hayd 3:15 Bishops Road

Hayd 3:50 Ubaltique

Navan 3:20 Moonshine Lad