Daily write-up - Jan 20th

There are 2 NH meetings this afternoon: at Chepstow and Musselburgh.

I must be honest, when I saw where they are racing today, I expected to be having a day off.

However, a few minutes scanning through the declarations and I knew that wasn’t going to be the case !

There are a couple of really good races at Chepstow – and a couple of really interesting horses running at Musselburgh.

The challenge then became how best to handle potential tips…

Before I cover that, just a few quick words about yesterday:

Firstly the run of Westerner Point, which was disappointing – and just went to show that even if a horse is well handicapped based its mark in one discipline, it’s not guaranteed to run to the same level in the other.

There is a world of difference between jumping a hurdle and jumping a fence - and Westerner Point was losing ground at each obstacle.

Even with over a stone in hand of his chase mark, he was never going to be able to give away a couple of lengths at each hurdle, and win.
If he can slicken up his hurdling, he can undoubtedly win off his current mark: if he can’t, he won’t…

The second point of interest, was the victory of Trucker Highway.

We were on him last time when he disappointed at Bangor – but he put that run firmly behind him yesterday, with a battling victory.
It was always a possibility – and as I expected, the market foretold it.

Reading the post race comments, it was interesting to note that the horse had undergone a breathing operation since its Bangor run.

There was no mention of this anywhere, pre-race – so no way we could know.

Ofcourse, connections knew – which explains why the horse was backed.

It didn’t mean it would win – but it did mean that it was likely to run better than the general public expected.

We really are in an impossible situation with those kind of things – and that is why I often want to see market support, when there is a question mark over a particular horse…

Anyway, back on to today.

A couple of tips: a couple of mentions and a couple of eye catchers.

Not bad for a Friday !

Here are my thoughts…

Chepstow

2:10 This really is a cracking race – and it is likely to take a good performance to win it.

The Colin Tizzard trained Robinsfirth heads the market – and that is understandable, as he was one of 3 novice hurdlers which Tizzard really rated a couple of seasons back.
The other 2 were Thistlecrack and Native River…

Even ignoring the hype, Robinsfirth has looked good in his 2 chase outings this season, since his return from injury.

He certainly has the potential to be a fair bit better than his current mark of 140…

So too does Flintham.

He is a half brother to Gold Cup winner Coneygree – and a full brother to the very talented Carruthers.

He was very disappointing on his 2 runs over fences last season – but his defeat of Pobbles Bay over hurdles at Warwick, reads very well indeed.

He’s nearly impossible to accurately assess – but again, there is a distinct possibility that he could be much better than a current rating of 141.

In terms of chasing form in the book, then top weight Battle of Shiloh sets the standard based on a comprehensive defeat of Hainan at Newcastle.
That one subsequently franked the form when winning well at Wetherby – but Battle of Shiloh will have to be good to defy the 9lb rise, which sees him lumbered with top weight in heavy ground.

Even outside those 3, the race has some interesting runners…

Definite Outcome beat Aurillac and Potters Corner on his chasing debut over todays course and distance in October.

He has disappointed twice since – but there were excuses – and if he returns to form today, he is well handicapped off a mark of 132.

Whether he is well enough handicapped to take care of Robinsfirth or Flintham, if either of those fulfil their potential, is debateable - but he probably represents the value in the race, at 10/1.

The final one worth a mention, is Maxanisi.
He is relatively unexposed and is trying todays trip for the first time.

He doesn’t have the form of some of his rivals – but he does have a lot of potential.

He also has a low weight and if the market speaks in his favour, he would very much be of interest….

It is such a good race, I would like to get involved with it – but it is probably one best watched with an eye to the future.

3:20 Whilst not of quite the same quality, this is another really interesting race.

It also contains an eye catcher, in the shape of Brownville.

He caught the eye 3 outings ago at Cheltenham – and has finished runner up on his 2 subsequent starts.
He ran particularly well last time at Uttoxeter, when he was unlucky to bump into a horse that showed big improvement.

Brownville has been raised 4lb for that run – and is also without the claim of Zac Bake this afternoon.

I could see him running well – but suspect his chance of winning as an eye catcher, may have gone last time…

Of more interest, is Altiepix.

He makes his debut for Kerry Lee having previously been trained in Ireland.

He showed some good form as well – certainly form which makes him look potentially attractively handicapped off a mark of 119.

It will all depend on whether Kerry Lee has found the key to him – and whether he is ready to do himself justice first time up.

The application of a tongue tie and visor for the first time, suggest he will be doing his best – and he is Jamie Moore’s only ride of the afternoon.

It will be difficult not to have a saver on him at very least…
There are 2 others in the race, of particular interest.

The first is Ugolin de Beaumont. He showed decent form in novice hurdler last season and looks the sort to do better over fences this time round.
He didn’t show too much on his chasing debut at Exeter behind Robinsfrith, but it would be no surprise to see him leave that form behind this afternoon.

Certainly, his mark of 117 looks very workable…

The final one of interest, is Court Frontier.
He caught my eye last season, when running in Ireland. I expected him to achieve great things over there – but it didn’t happen and he was sold by Barry Connell last spring.

He had a couple of low key runs for new connections during the summer, before nearly coming good at Ffos Las, with Davy Russell in the saddle.

On that form he has a real chance today – though he did disappoint last time over today course.

However, he has been given plenty of time to get over that (or maybe have a breathing operation !) – and looks of real interest this afternoon, particularly with Denis O’Regan coming over for just the one ride.

At 20/1 I couldn’t resist a small EW play – even though I am fearful of Altiepix

Musselburgh

2:25 I was half tempted to tip Ifandbutwhynot in this…

He’s 11 years old now – and hasn’t won for almost 2 years – but he showed distinct promise on his most recent run and has a good record at the track.

He will also get the good ground he needs: sports a first time tongue tie – and has Richard Johnson in the saddle.

The last point is particularly interesting, as Dickie has only previously ridden for Tim Easterby on one occasion…

The question is simply which is dropping fastest: his level of ability or his handicap mark !

It’s not an easy one to call – and I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off having a small play on him.

The concern is a few young, progressive horses, who could just be too good for him.

The 4 year old, Project Bluebookis the obvious one, under Brian Hughes: though Stamp Your Feet for Tom George and Paddy Brennan, also looks to have plenty of potential – and Caius Marcuis could also still be improving, despite his defeat last time.

3:00 I’ve already tipped Quito du Tresor twice this season – but I simply have to get involved with him again this afternoon.
As I said last time, the horse is dropping in the handicap to the point where he will almost be compelled to win, in the right circumstances – and I think he has the right circumstances this afternoon.

His requirements are quite clear: 2m4f on quick ground and a flat right hand track (preferably Musselburgh).
Granted those conditions, he will run his race – the question is simply whether his race will be good enough to win.
It wasn’t on the last two occasions – but he has dropped down the handicap further, as

a result.

He runs in a class 4 race again today (as was the case last time) – however this time, the ceiling for the race is 105 (it was 120 on his most recent run).
In short, he is taking on very limited animals.

The other positive compared to last time, is the form of Lucinda Russell’s stable.

It was going through a very lean patch when he last ran - but it has managed a number of winners over the past week or so, suggesting that her runners are generally in better form.

If you ignore his age (and he is only a month older than when I last tipped him !) – the case for him is absolutely rock solid.

The fact he is at a big enough price to enable us to back him EW and get our money back if his old legs don’t manage to quite get him home in front, is a bonus.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

DT Muss 3:00 Quito du Tresor 0.25pt EW 7/1

DT Chep 3:20 Court Frontier 0.125pt EW 20/1

Mentions

Chep 2:10 Definite Outcome (O )

Muss 2:25 Ifandbutwhynot (O )

Eye Catchers

Chep 3:20 Brownville

Muss 3:00 Quito du Tresor