Daily write-up - Jan 1st

Happy New year !

There are 7 NH meetings today: at Cheltenham, Musselburgh, Exeter, Catterick and Fontwell in the UK – plus Fairyhouse and Tramore in Ireland.

Another busy day !

Also, for the first time in a while, there is rain the air.

And quite significant rain too – certainly in the south of England (so potentially impacting Cheltenham and Exeter).

I don’t really need much of an excuse to back off the tipping – and the potential of changing ground, makes me very wary about getting heavily involved…

Clearly, December was a shocking month, tipping wise – the worst I have ever had and by some margin.

Whether it was a one off, time alone will tell.

As I’ve said before, actually tipping nowadays is very difficult – and I don’t think we had much luck either.
January should give us a better feel for where things stand…

I’ve ended up with just a couple of tips on the day – I don’t feel comfortable tipping at Cheltenham because of the uncertainty.

That said, there are plenty of Mentions – and some guidance on which horses will prefer what type of ground.

There are also 8 eye catchers running – so plenty to keep your eyes on (assuming your eyes are up to the job !).

Just a quick reminder to those who ‘placed’ in the Naps competition, that your selections for you £10 prize bet should be posted in the forum, before midday…

Cheltenham

12:50 A cracking race to get the new year under way – but my short list consisted purely of horses at the head of the betting…

The ground is likely to have a big impact on the outcome.
If it stays good, it will suit Arpege D’Alenene and Lamb or Cod; whilst soft ground will play to the strengths of Viyta du Roc and Racing Pulse.

Regardless of underfoot conditions, I think Arpege D’Alene is a suspect favourite.
He is theoretically well handicapped – but I just don’t see his jumping holding up in a competitive 17 runner field.

Viyta du Roc is short enough in the betting as well – though if the ground does go soft, he is probably the one to beat.

Doctor Harper isn’t as ground dependant – though there is a question maker over him staying the trip.

Despite that, he would be one of my two against the field.

The other one would be Warrantor.

He ran really well on his seasonal debut over this course, when not quite getting home.

He should appreciate the slight reduction in distance today.

1:25 This is a fascinating little race – and whilst Clan des Obeaux appears the one to beat, he faces at least a couple of rivals, who are capable of seriously testing him…

The first of those is Whisper.
He was a revelation when winning a hot novice chase over this course and distance at the December meeting.

If he could be guaranteed to repeat that performance, he would take some beating this afternoon – but the run was something of a surprise.

He was very talented over hurdles – I just wasn’t convinced he would reach the same level over fences.
We should have a better idea after today, whether he will…

The other one of serious interest, is Briery Belle.

She is a mare on a steep upward curve – and unlike Whisper, is almost guaranteed to run her race today.
The question is whether that race will be good enough to win.

She has a bit to find with Clan des Obeaux at the weights – and he has greater scope for improvement.
If there is a bet in the race, it is Briery Belle at 6/1 (or thereabouts) – but it’s probably a race to watch.

2:00 The first eye catcher of the day runs in this: Henri Parry Morgan – but unlike Pricewise, I just don’t fancy him !

I think the trip is too short – plus he ran and unseated just 6 days ago. I also think that if connections fancied him, Sean Bowen would be in the saddle.

I guess a lot of rain could change things – but even then, he wouldn’t be that close to the top of my list…

The 2 horses I like most, are Quite by Chance and As de Mee.

The former was a little unlucky to only finish fourth in the Caspian Caviar Gold cup, last time out – and is a big improver this campaign.

He looks rock solid – but his price of 11/2 gives little margin, in a strong race.

I tipped As de Mee last time, when he won well at Aintree.

He’s only been raised 7lb for that win – which doesn’t seem overly harsh.
He also has the services of Sean Bowen (unlike Henri Parry Morgan !).

I guess my concern with him, is his ability to come up the hill.

He didn’t entirely convince on the run-in at Aintree – and the Cheltenham hill will test his resolve far more.

I think he has a very good chance of placing – and if you can get 9/1, then he is a fair EW bet – I’m just not entirely sure about his willingness to win…

2:35 Call to Order looks the one to beat in this – but he has been priced up accordingly (5/2)…

He won a similar race at the December meeting – and a 7lb rise for that win doesn’t look unduly harsh.

In fact, he is still able to get into today race off bottom weight – and he definitely looks the one to beat.

If I was to take him on, it would most likely be with either Will O The West or Rainy City.
The former is an official eye catcher and who is having his second run as such.

He was a big disappointment last time – and there was no obvious reason for that. However he has been given plenty of time to recover, and if he can run to the level he showed on his seasonal debut at this course, he should go close.

Rainy City ran well last time out, and on that form he would have a decent chance of at least placing today – but he needs the rain to stay away.

The only other one worthy of a mention is Fingal Bay.

He looks to be in decline – but if he were to bounce back to form he is well enough handicapped to win.

3:10 there are 2 more eye catchers running in this, in the shape of Lil Rockerfeller and Leoncavallo.
The former needs no introduction – as he is probably my favourite horse in training at the moment (and therefore tends to receive plenty of ‘column inches’ !).
I’ve tipped him in the forum for the World Hurdle - and would expect him to run another big race this afternoon.

Whether he will be up to winning, is open to question.
He could only finish second in this race 12 months ago – and it may be a similar case this afternoon.

Camping Ground had his measure last year – and it should be close between the 2, this afternoon.

The question is more likely to be whether Lil Rockerfeller can give 8lb to both Cole Harden and L’Ami Serge.

He will probably beat one of them – but which one, is likely to depend on the state of the ground.

Cole Harden looks the most likely race winner to me – provided the ground is not too heavy.

An ex world hurdle winner in receipt of weight from most of the field looks too good to be true - but he won’t want heavy ground.

That won’t be an issue to L’Ame Serge though – even if he doesn’t actually need it.

Again, it’s a very difficult race to call without knowing how the ground will ride - though regardless, I will be hoping (and expecting) a big run from Lil Rockerfeller.

Suffice to say, Leoncavallo shouldn’t really be up to figuring in a race of this quality…

Musselburgh

1:40 Another race in which there are a couple of eye catchers running: namely Upsilon Bleu and Ash Park.

My initial feeling was that the ground would be quicker than ideal, for both of them – and that they were best watched – but on reflection, I’ve decided that Upsilon Bleu is worth a small risk…

Undoubtedly, I would have preferred to see him running over 2 miles on soft ground – but I’m hoping that the quick ground will be offset by the step up in distance.

Certainly, in terms of both his handicap rating – and his current form, I am very keen on him – so at a decent price, I think he is worth a small risk…

Ash Park ran really well last time at Newcastle – but the market is wise to him.

There isn’t really a lot to dislike about him – apart from this price (5/1).

I would expect him to run a good race – and be there – or thereabouts – at the finish…

In truth, it is quite a tight race – but if Upsilon Bleu can adapt to the conditions, then he is good enough to win quite comfortably…

2:50 I’m sorely tempted to make Superb Story a Top Pick in this…
He won the County hurdle at the Cheltenham festival on his penultimate run – and races off a mark just 7lb higher today.

This is a significantly weaker race – and it has clearly been targeted by Dan Skelton, so it is very tempting to pile in…

However, I have two issues: firstly Superb Story has to give a lot of weight away to some decent horses (conceding 22b to Eye of a Tiger, won’t be easy); and secondly, Musselburgh is a very different course to Cheltenham (where he has shown his best form).

He will be running at Musselburgh mainly because it is the one track in the country, where you are almost guaranteed decent ground in January.
Whether he will cope with it’s sharp, flat, right handed configuration; as opposed to Cheltenhams, galloping, undulating, left handed configuration, only time will tell…

If he does, I think he will win – and 2/1 isn’t a bad price…

Exeter

1:15 There’s another eye catcher running in this race, in the shape of Kayf Blanco – and I would like to take a chance on him, but it’s an impossible race to assess…

Virtually all of his main dangers have a big question mark over them: Far West, Hello George and Sadlers Gold are all returning from massive absences – and it’s anyones guess what condition they will be in. Whilst favourite, Capeland, is an unexposed novice who might (or might not) be very well handicapped…

The other slight issue is that I would prefer to see Kayf Blanco in a bigger race, where a decent pace was guaranteed…

That said, I would still expect him to run his race – and if sufficient of the others don’t run theirs, that could easily see him winning.

I guess that at 5/1, he is the classic EW bet to nothing – and I’m sure that will appeal to some of you…

2:25 As an unexposed novice, with plenty of upside, I couldn’t really see why Somerset Jem was as big as 12/1 this morning, for this race.
He is taking on horses who are mostly far more exposed - and non of them sets a particularly high standard.

Maybe not too surprisingly, he’s not 12/1 any more – 6/1 is the general quote as I type this – and that seems about right.

I probably wouldn’t have tipped him at that price – but I wouldn’t have thought it too short, either…

There is a fair bit of speculation in the case for him: but he hacked up in a hurdle race on his handicap debut last season – and showed himself capable of handling the rise in the handicap when second to Tagrita on his subsequent start.

He showed some promise on his seasonal/chasing debut at Uttoxeter in a decent race (contested by Altesse de Guye and Behind the Wire) – and if he can build on that, he should be right in the mix.

The handicapper knows where he stands with the likes of Zanstra and Ballinvarrig - and Jaboltiski could well prove to be Somerset Jems biggest rival.

The booking of 3lb claimer David Noonan is a definite positive for Somerset Jem – and the horse would appear to have every chance (assuming he gets a bit of luck !).

3:30 If it gets really soft at Exeter, I will be tempted by Fourovakind.
I suspect he ideally wants another run to reach peak fitness – but if conditions move in his favour, he is well enough handicapped to go very close today.

Clearly, Bramble Brook is the one to beat – but I couldn’t consider him at prices as low as 2/1, in a race such as this.

The other one of potential interest is Midnight Request.
He ran really well on his return from a long absence at Towcester last time. There is a danger that he might ‘bounce’ following that run – and he doesn’t want the ground too soft – but if things fell right, he could go very close.

Castarnie seems to have been dismissed in the betting on account of a bad run last time.

Todays trip will suit him better than last time – and if he does go out to 20/1 (he’s 30 on BF as I type), he could be worth a small risk.

Catterick

1:00 Helium is the final eye catcher running on the day.

He caught the eye 3 runs back over fences at Aintree – and followed that up by disappoint over fences at Exeter - before running very well over hurdles last time, at Fakenham.

Good ground is key to him – and he will get that today.
Based on his last time out run, when he was only beaten by a potentially very well handicapped horse, he could easily be capable of winning this race.

The booking of Page Fuller, seems to confirm that connections mean business.

I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off him – but 9/4 in a race where it’s not easy to get a handle on some of the opposition, doesn’t strike me as a particularly appealing bet…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

BRT Muss 1:40 Upsilon Bleu 0.25pt win 8/1

DT Exe 2:25 Somerset Jem 0.25pt win 10/1

Mentions*

 

Chel 12:50 Warrantor (C )

Chel 1:25 Briery Belle (O )

Chel 2:00 As de Mee (O )

Chel 2:35 Call to Order (P )

Chel 3:10 Cole Harden (C )

Muss 2:50 Superb Story (C )

Exe 1:15 Kayf Blanco (O )

Exe 3:30 Midnight Request (C )

Eye Catchers

Chel 2:00 Henri Parry Morgan

Chel 2:35 Will o The West

Chel 3:10 Leoncavallo

Chel 3:10 Lil Rockerfeller

Muss 1:40 Upsilon Bleu

Muss 1:40 Ash Park

Exe 1:15 Kayf Blanco

Catt 1:00 Helium

*Mentions Key

C – Conditions

O – Opposition

S – Speculative

P - Price