Daily write-up - Jan 17th

There are 2 NH meetings this afternoon: at Exeter and Ayr.

Things are likely to remain relatively quiet this week, as we continue to chug through January…

It was nice to tip a winner on Sunday, simply because it helped show the week in a slightly better light – officially speaking.

My feeling was that it had been a pretty good week for the Info service, but it was only when I carried out my weekly admin, that I realised just how good it was.

Across the week, there were 17 horses which I either Tipped or Mentioned in the write-ups.
Of those 17, 10 either won or finished second – which is nearly 60%.

There were 5 winners, with SPs of 13/2, 11/2, 5/1, 11/4 and 5/2.

That means there could have been a 10pt profit, simply by backing all of the Tips/Mentions at SP – and as every one of the winners significantly shortened in price, backing them when the write-up was issued would have resulted in a profit of more than double that…

Ofcourse, I would never recommend just blindly backing all of the Mentions (or indeed the Tips, if you can’t get a price) – but it is interesting, non-the-less.

Furthermore, the number excludes winners such as A Little Magic and Straidnahanna – and indeed Tuchtec (who finished third, and was 16/1 early).
It also excludes the Teo Vivo/Sleepy Haven forecast, which was suggested on Sunday.

In short, if you use the Info service to guide your betting and you didn’t make a profit last week, it is likely to be a long old winter !

Ofcourse, you may well say ‘not before time’ – and I would probably agree.

But to an extent, that is the nature of the beast – and it really shouldn’t take many weeks like last week, to get things into the black – at least for the Info side… (accepting it is always a difficult thing to accurately judge).

The Tips might be a bit trickier – but I’ll be trying to find a way to turn that around as well.

I personally think I got a little lucky with the winning tip on Sunday – but even if I did, it was nothing compared to the ‘misfortune’ of the previous few weeks.

Hopefully the tide has begun to turn…

As for today: it’s a quiet one.
No tips: no eye catchers; just a few mentions.

Best to ease ourselves gently into the new week…

Here are my thoughts on a couple of the races on each of the cards.

Exeter

2:40 Winston Churchill strikes me as the most likely winner of this…

He has won on his seasonal debut on both of the past 2 seasons: he will relish the soft ground – and todays trip should be ideal for him.

He’s also well enough handicapped, off a mark just 1lb higher than the one he won from last season.

So far as the form book is concerned, there is no reason why he won’t run a very big race – and 6/1 is a fair enough price…

The race favourite is Grand Gold – but he’s not so easy to get a handle on.

He’s done well in PTPs recently – and showed a lot of promise when running over hurdles just 9 days ago.

If he can build on that run, he could well be good enough to win, off his lower chase mark.

However, he did have quite tough race - and I would be wary about taking too short a price, in the circumstances.

3 others interest me at much bigger prices…

Tolkeins Tango chased home Winston Churchill on his seasonal debut last campaign.

He was pulled up in his 2 subsequent runs, but if he does bounce back to form, it’s not impossible that he could do the same again today (certainly, there will be worse, near 100/1 shots, than the forecast !).

Starkie is handicapped to win – and ran well enough last time to suggest that might be possible – however he has no form at beyond 2 miles, so backing him over an extra half mile on very soft ground, does require a certain amount of faith (he could be worth a pre race back to lay in-running, however).
The final outsider of interest, is Headley s Bridge.

He is also handicapped to win – but hasn’t shown any form for a long time. That said, he’s not had his conditions for a long time – and he gets them today.
It was difficult to take much from his seasonal debut at Chepstow – but if that has got him right, then he could be a danger to everything.

3:15 Bacchanel is the one that interests me most in this.

He is making his fencing debut in a handicap – having acquired his handicap mark over hurdles.

That is always an interesting ploy…

He’s a big horse as well – so there is every chance he will prove more effective over fences than he was over hurdles.

It’s impossible to say whether his handicap mark is fair – but it is low enough, for any horse trained by Philip Hobbs.

Dickie Johnson also returns to the saddle – which further increases interest...

He would be a speculative play, for sure – but if a fair price can be secured (around 5/1), he could be worth a risk.

Bindon Mill is also relatively unexposed – and actually finished in front of Bacchanel, when they met over hurdles, last month.

However, I just feel that Bacchanel has the greater scope for improvement.

Bramble Brook has the best form in the book, courtesy of his second to West Wizard at Ffos Las.

However, the winner aside that wasn’t a strong race, so he still has plenty to prove.

Ayr

2:55 If there had been any chance of getting a price, I would have tipped Kilbree Chief in this.
In fact, the possibility of tipping him, is why the write-up is with you now and not a few hours earlier !

He was a general 4/1 shot last night – 9/2 is a few places – and I would have taken a risk at that price.

However, he was very well backed early this morning – and 3/1 would have been the best we could have got.

In truth, there could still have been a little value in that price – but there is some guesswork involved, which makes it tricky to assess properly.

The guesswork isn’t with him – it’s with his main market rival, Nortonthorpelegend.

He is a rapidly progressive horse – and whilst the handicapper will eventually catch him up, it’s anyones guess as to when that will happen.

It could well be today – and I could have been prepared to gamble on that being the case – but it might not be…

In truth, the race does look likely to go to one of the pair.

Grove Silver is of some interest, based on his last 2 runs – though I suspect he will struggle to get the better of Kilbree Chief.

Similarly a case could be made for Settledoutofcourt, who has the clear beating of Nortonthorpelegend based on their meeting at Wetherby.

However, the latter appears to have improved massively since that run, so I’m not sure the form line is valid…

In short, the race looks most likely to go to one of the market leaders – but 5/2 the pair doesn’t offer much margin, for error or mistakes…

3:30 As with the previous race, this one looks most likely to go to one of the market leaders…

Rowdy Rocher and Plus Jamais clashed over hurdles on their most recent runs, and the former came out well on top.

On only a pound worse terms, the expectation would be that Rowdy Rocher would confirm the form – but I wouldn’t be completely sure that will be the case…

It looks as if Plus Jamais was merely biding his time over hurdles and keeping fit – I wouldn’t be surprised to see him put in a much improved showing this afternoon, back over fences.

The trouble is, the market sees it the same way as well – so you won’t get much of a  reward if you take a risk.
Things are complicated further by the presence of Dick Darsie.
Again, based on form his chance wouldn’t appear obvious – but he was very well backed last time, on his chasing debut.

He didn’t run up to market expectations that day – but his saddle slipped, which could easily explain his poor performance.

If he runs to the level seemingly expected last time, he could be too good for both Rowdy Rocher and Plus Jamais.

In truth, there are other runners in the race who can’t be completely dismissed either, so it’s probably a race best watched…

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

None

Mentions

Exe 2:40 Winston Churchill (O )

Exe 3:15 Bacchanel (S )

Ayr 2:55 Kilbree Chief (P )