Daily write-up - Jan 6th

With frost causing the abandonment of Ludlow, there is just the one NH meeting this afternoon: at Wetherby…

It’s been a strange week.

Following the excesses of the Christmas period, a total of just 6 NH meetings have taken place across the whole week – and all of them low grade.

There were nearly twice as many meeting on Boxing day alone – and the class of horses running, was significantly better !

In truth, January is always a quiet month – it just seems to have got off to a particularly quiet start...

I’m sure there will be a bit more action tomorrow (temperatures are forecast to rise a little, which will help).

As no doubt a few of your have already seen, I put together my thoughts on what happened to the tips in December and posted it in the forum.

Please feel free to comment, when you’ve read it (but don’t feel obliged !).

For those of you who are not regular forum viewers, I really would encourage you to make the effort, as there is some good stuff going on in there at the moment…

Chris, Francis, Matt and Neil are busy driving each other to new heights in the quest for the perfect system !

And they are doing pretty well…

They have managed to find a number of profitable angles – using a statistical approach – and whilst all of their ‘systems’ are still in trial periods, the initial results look very promising.

As for today, then if I’d not committed to write-up my thoughts, I would probably have taken the day off !

Aside from one race, the card at Wetherby is uninspiring – and with rain forecast for later this morning, there is also a question mark over the ground.

That said, there is an eye catcher running – and I’ve got a couple of Mentions – so hopefully they will help ease us gently into the weekend…

Wetherby

1:05 This race revolves around Happy Diva.

She was a very easy winner on her handicap debut at Fontwell on Boxing day and runs today under a 7lb penalty.

An extra 7lb wouldn’t have stopped her last time, so provided she has recovered from those exertions (and she didn’t appear to have a hard race), she very much looks the one to beat.

That said, it’s not easy to get a proper handle on a few of her rivals – so it’s not a race in which you could be confident

Bells on Sunday and Two Swallows both won last time, on their handicap debuts.

Neither was as impressive as Happy Diva – but both could still have plenty of scope for improvement.

The other one who catches my eye, is Bull and Bush.
She had been off the course for 18 months prior to making her debut for Charlie Mann in a better race than this at Plumpton in November.

She ran well in that race – before disappointing next time, in a hot race over fences at Newbury…

Clearly she comes with risks – but based on her old form, she is well handicapped – and based on the Plumpton run, she retains plenty of ability.

She is available at 25/1 – and could be worth a tiny risk at that price…

1:35 This is the best race on the card by some margin – and contains an official eye catcher in the shape of Mustmeetalady.

He caught the eye last time, on his seasonal debut at Ascot, behind Minella Daddy.

Despite making numerous mistakes that day, he still finished the race well, looking sure to improve for the run.

I could certainly be interested in him today – though I do have a few concerns.
Firstly, Jonjo O’Neil is going through one of his barren patches. They seem to occur quite frequently, making him a difficult trainer to have confidence in.
The other potential issue is the state of the ground. It is currently described as ‘good to soft’ – and that would be fine – but there is rain in the air and that isn’t good news for Mustmeetalady…

Interestingly, he is on the drift – whether that is caused by the fear of rain or something else, I don’t know – but it does make me wary…

In terms of his rivals, then Crosspark is the really interesting one – and he’s been backed…

He finished second in what has turned out to be an incredibly strong novice chase at Uttoxeter.
He was behind Pobbles Bay that day – but in front on Bun Doran and Poker School.

Those 3 horses have all been impressive winners of all of their subsequent races.

Crosspark himself, actually got beaten on his only subsequent run  - but that was on quick ground at Doncaster.
He wants soft –and if he gets it this afternoon, he is probably the one to beat.

Baywing and Flashjack also both want soft – and whilst What a Moment will be happy with good ground, he probably wants a bit more of a stamina test…

It’s a tough race to call whilst there is uncertainty over the conditions.

On decent ground, I’d take a risk on Mustmeetalady – but if conditions deteriorate, I think Crosspark is the one to beat.

2:40 As with the 1:05 race, this contest seems to revolve around a recent winner, who is reappearing under a penalty.

The horse in question is Amber Gambler – and he is actually a recent dual winner.

The first of those wins was over hurdles at Market Rasen on Boxing day – and he followed that up with a win over fences at Fontwell on New Years day…

The latter win was particularly impressive and the fact he runs under a penalty today, means he is effectively 8lb ‘well in’ compared to his new handicap mark.

Provided he has recovered from his recent exertions, he will be very difficult to beat.

This is a poor race and the only one I could consider taking him on with, is top weight, Best Served Cold.
He looked like making a really decent horse a few seasons back (I actually tipped him in a novice chase at Cheltenham !) – but it never really happened.

He’s spent the past couple of years hunting – and makes his debut under rules, for Lawney Hill today.
She has a reputation for improving horses who move to her – so I expected him to be backed – and he has been !

Ofcourse it is all guesswork – but if he does retain a chunk of his old ability, he could make things interesting for Ambler Gambler.

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

None

Mentions

Weth 1:05 Bull and Bush (S )

Weth 1:35 Crosspark (C )

Weth 2:40 Best Served Cold (S )

Eye Catchers

Weth 1:35 Mustmeetalady