Daily write-up - Dec 31st

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Newbury, Uttoxeter and Warwick in the UK – plus Punchestown in Ireland.

It might be Saturday – but todays cards have more of a mid week feel to them…

I guess that’s not too surprising, on the back of all the post Christmas meetings – and ahead of some really big meetings tomorrow, on New Years day.

It must be the first time in decades that there will be no racing on C4 – though RUK are free-to-air for the day…

It’s the final day of the Naps competition in the forum – and what a competition it has been !
Chris and Paul have been going at it hammer and tongue for a few days now – and posting some incredible results.

Between them they have managed to generate over 60 points profit during the month – staking just 2 pts a day, at easily available prices.

Maybe I should retire and leave the tipping to them (no need for mutterings from the back, thank you !).

It really has been a tremendous effort from them both – and shows the calibre of guys that are on the service.

May the best man win, chaps (though even the second best man, will also deserve a deal of respect).

Anyway, on to today.

One thing I do think you need to take consideration of, if you are getting involved, is where the various big name jockeys are riding…

-Richard Johnson and Paddy Brennan are at Warwick

-Sean Bowen and Tom Scudamore are at Uttoxeter

-Davy Russell is at Newbury

None of them will have travelled to those tracks for the good of their health.

All of their mounts need to be given due consideration…

I have issued just the one small tip on the day (ridden by Davy Russell !).

I guess I could have forced things tips wise (to try and save the month) – but that’s not my style.
Instead, I’ll look to kick off January with a good start tomorrow.

Needless to say there are quite a few mentions – and a couple of eye catchers, so sufficient to stop you from getting bored…

Newbury

12:40 There are enough that I’m happy to take on in this race, to make it one I want to play in…

Connetable and Potters Legend were two that I specifically targeted opposing, at early priced - though both have subsequently drifted and now don’t take out as much of the book as they did last night.

The 2 I am most interested in, are Welsh Shadow and Aqua Dude.
They actually met at Haydock in the middle of November, when both finished well beaten behind Politologue.

Welsh Shadow was particularly disappointing that day, as he was sent off favourite.

However he didn’t seem happy on the very wet ground – so I am hopeful he can bounce back on todays firmer surface.

Certainly, based on his hurdles form, he could be very well treated today, off a mark of just 135.

He looked a graded performer over hurdles as a novice last season - and even managed to finish fifth in the Neptune Investment novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.

The expectation was that he would make an even better chaser – and it’s far too soon to be writing him off, after just one poor run on ground which he may not have handled.

As I said in the introduction, I do like the fact that Davy Russell is over for the ride. I respect the chances of race favourite, Aurillac – but I am most worried about Aqua Dude.

He isn’t a danger on form in the book – but I suspect he has a fair bit of potential.
Hopefully Welsh Shadow will be a bit too classy for him, however…

1:15 The highly progressive Yanmare is favourite for this.

Despite having won his last 3 races, he gets into the race with a weight of just 10st 2lb.

He’s a hard one to assess though: stepping up in class – and its difficult to know whether he will be up to the job.

He’s a strong stayer and I wouldn’t be sure that todays 3 mile trip on decent ground, will be enough of a stamina test.

I also don’t really know what to make of the booking of Gavin Sheehan – it just strikes me as a bit odd.

On balance I would take him on – that said, I did expect him to be shorter than 5/1…

I tipped both Potters Cross and Conas Taoi last time they ran – and both ran with a deal of credit.

I could be interested in them both again today – and I do like their jockey bookings !

The trouble is, Potters Cross is high in the weights - and Conas Taoi shouldn’t really beat Bob Tucker.

In fact, at 14/1, a very good case can be argued for Bob Tucker. The issue with him is simply the woeful form of the Charlie Longsdon stable – it would be difficult to tip anything trained by him, at this point in time…

Plenty of the others can also be given a chance.

Cases could be constructed for Willoughby Hedge, Treaty Girl and Blameitonmyroots, to name but 3.

Consequently, it feels like a race best swerved, from a tipping perspective…

1:50 I briefly thought about tipping Ami Desbois, EW, in this…

I was taken by his effort last time at Cheltenham – and he could get the run of the race, from the front.

It’s a difficult race to be adamant about – and whilst I think he probably would prefer an extra half mile, if Keilan Woods can get his fractions right, he could still be hard to pass.

I guess 2 things put me off: firstly the fact that it would be guess work – and secondly that if there is a NR (and the cynic in me thinks that Major Mac must be a prime candidate!), the place terms will be much less attractive.

In terms of the race winner: then Robin Roe seems to be very highly thought of; whilst it would seem significant that Gordon Elliot sends over Baltazar D’allier – but it is probably a race best watched…

2:25 Both Cepage and Knockgraffon were really impressive winners over this course ad distance, last time and it will be interesting to see which one comes out of top, this afternoon.

The form of Knockgraffons win is much stronger – and he was hardly fluent over some of his fences; however, Cepage has the greater scope for improvement.

In truth, it might not even be a 2 horse race.

Romain de Senam has plenty of potential; whilst outsider, Icing on the Cake, caught my eye on his seasonal debut at Fontwell in October.

He probably won’t be up to todays task – but I’ll be very interested to see how he gets on.
In terms of the race winner, then if forced to choose, I would opt for Knockgraffon.

3:00 I could have been quite interested in John Constable in this – if Davy Russell were riding him.

However, he’s not – choosing instead to ride Kings Bandit – and I don’t fancy him as much…

The other one I half toyed with, is Born Survivor…

I suspect he is a fair bit better than he has shown in his 2 runs this season – but he is considered an embryonic chaser, so he just might never fulfil his potential over hurdles.

Furthermore, he is held on his last run by Thelingy – and as with Kings Bandit, I don’t particularly like him…

In truth, favourite Geordie des Champs, could easily run away with this.
He was entered for the grade 1 Challow hurdle earlier on the card - and would have been quite well fancied – so could easily be thrown in off a mark of 129.

The other one I could have been interested in, is Court Minstrel…

He is classy enough and well handicapped enough, to win this. However he must have quick ground – and the fact the word ‘soft’ appears in the going description, is enough to stop me from getting involved with him.

Another poor run will see his handicap mark drop further - and he will very much be one to keep an eye out for in the spring…

Uttoxeter

1:40 I did consider taking a chance on Run Ructions Run in this.

Her last two runs have been in better races than todays - and she’s not run too badly.

Despite that, the handicapper has dropped her 3lb – and she has a 7lb claimer on top this afternoon.

At 9/1 last tonight, I felt she could be worth a risk to get the better of favourite, Pure Vision.

She is now a 5/1 shot – a similar price to him – so that has messed up my thinking a bit !

There are a couple of others who could also be dangerous (including Shotovodka, with Tom Scudamore on board), so on balance, I’m struggling to support her at the available odds…

2:15 The two I am most interested in, in this race, have also been well backed…

Tanarpino is the second official eye catcher running today – and I think he has a decent chance.
He caught the eye last time when running a huge race on his seasonal and chasing debut, at Carlisle.

I’m pretty sure he would have won that day, if he had been fully fit – so he must have every chance of going one better this afternoon.

The trouble is, he is going to struggle to beat Alcala on their form over hurdles, form last season.

He is making his chasing debut this afternoon, so his ability to jump a fence has to be taken on trust – though I suspect he will be fine.

It’s not a bad race, but I would have been prepared to take a chance on either of them, at a price.

However, they are both 5/1 shots – which gives combined odds of 2/1…

In truth, I don’t actually think that is unreasonable – just not quite good enough to tempt me in…

2:50 I quite fancied Starkie the last time he ran, in a better race than this, at Newbury.

However his trainer came on TV before the race and said he wasn’t firing – and was therefore unlikely to win !
A pre-race betting drift followed – and sure enough, he ran poorly…

If he is weak in the betting today, then you can probably expect a similar performance – however, if he is well supported, then he is handicapped to win this.

The booking of Brian Hughes also catches the eye and makes me wonder if perhaps the horse has been working a little better since Christmas…
Time will tell, I guess.

Warwick

1:35 Paddy Brennan riding Vice et Vertu in this, catches the eye.

He was on the horse last time when it sluiced up at Ludlow.

In truth, it had become ridiculously well handicapped – and even after a 13lb rise, is not badly treated this afternoon.
I think it is very much the one to beat…

I could have been interested in Carli King – even over a trip that is likely to be on the short side – if he looked like getting an easy time in the lead.

He took apart a race over this course, 18 months ago – and gets in today off a mark 4lb lower.

He is also Adam Pogsons only ride of the day…

However, it looks like he will face some serious competition for the lead – and over a trip that might have him flat out regardless, I suspect today won’t be his day.

I’ll be keeping a close eye on him, all the same…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

BRT Newb 12:40 Welsh Shadow 0.25pt win 6/1

Mentions

Newb 1:15 Bob Tucker (C )

Newb 1:50 Ami Desbois (S )

Uttx 1:40 Run Ructions Run (P )

Uttx 2:15 Tanarpino (O )

Uttx 2:15 Alacala (O )

Uttx 2:50 Starkie (C )

Warw 1:35 Vice et Vertu (P )

Eye Catchers

Newb 1:15 Potters Cross

Uttx 2:15 Tanarpino

Review of the day

Scotswell was well backed this afternoon – and ran a really a good race – but as has been the case with so many of the tips recently, it ultimately wasn’t quite good enough…

He traded odds on in-running (again) - but could only finish third (again !).

Maybe EW tipping is the way forward !

In the same race, the eye catcher Island Heights was surprisingly well backed – but less surprisingly, never featured.

That was his last run as an official eye catcher – but I could still be interested in him, over hurdles, on soft ground…

The other eye catcher to run, Valseur Du Granval – but he bumped into a very impressive one, in the shape of Clic Work.

He was making his fencing debut - but you would never have known, as he pinged every fence and won with a lot in hand.

It will be interesting to see how far he can progress…

The other main interest on the day, was in the novice chase at Leopardstown.

I tipped Alpha des Obeaux for the RSA chase, earlier in the season, and was hoping for a good display this afternoon to back that up.
Instead, I got a bad mistake – and broken blood vessels !
He was pulled up not long after half way – and now clearly has a lot to prove.

I’m sure he has the ability to go close at Cheltenham – but the big question is whether he will even make the race…

Both of the Mentions at Doncaster were declared non-runners: leaving just Caraline at Kelso; and Katnap and Jers Girl, at Leopardstown.

Caraline was a big drifter at Kelso – implying that the money last night, was from the wrong source.

He ran a race that suggested he needs to drop a few pounds in the handicap – and that is probably what will happen as a result of it.

Katnap was sent off favourite for the opener at Leopardstown - but made a bad mistake at the second fence and never featured.

Jers Girl was also very well backed (down to 5/1) – but she just didn’t perform.

It was a difficult race to read, as you couldn’t be sure whether Nichols Canyon under-performed - or Petit Mouchoir was much improved.
I guess time will tell…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Dec 29th

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon, at Doncaster and Kelso in the UK – and Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland.

It’s the final day of the 4 day meetings at both the Irish venues.

The Ryanair hurdle is the high-light of the Leopardstown card – but it’s not really a betting race.

I had a few things to do, early yesterday evening…

Consequently, I tried to get ahead, by studying todays form, during the afternoon.

As always, I listed the horses in which I was potentially interested, on a page in my work book.

Late in the evening (around 10:00), when things had quietened down, I looked through Oddschecker to establish the prices of the horses – and see if there was anything I would be able to tip.

What I saw was truly incredible.
Literally every horse I had written down, was blue on Oddschecker.

And more than that, on most occasions they were the only horses in the race which were totally blue (some horses go blue in one or two places, where there are standout prices).

As I’ve said previously, the horses I get drawn to are clearly being picked up on by others – and being backed early.

Consequently, the ‘value’ in their prices is disappearing.

I can understand exactly why.

If you are able to read form – or if you watch races – then they are the horses for whom you could make a decent case.

Ofcourse this doesn’t mean they will win – as there are plenty of other factors that impact the result of a race.
However, many of these aren’t available to the general public – so they can’t be considered by someone like me, when assessing a race…

In truth. I’m not sure where this leaves me.

The times when there will still be value in the price of a horse I can be interested in, early in the morning, are going to be rare – certainly in the smaller races.

I think it is less of an issue in the big races, as generally, more of the horses are backed…

Anyway, I just thought it worth explaining the situation (though I know I have mentioned it previously), as it was a very stark example of the issue I face on a daily basis…

Despite all of that, I have managed to find a tip on the day ! – though needless to say, not at the price I was hoping for…

Scotswell opened at a general 9/1 – but was 7/1 by the time I could issue this morning.

I think there is still a bit of value in that price – though not a huge amount.

The other potential tips have had to become mentions. Whether they are still worth backing, needs to be assessed on a horse by horse basis.

There are also a couple of eye catcher running – plus Alpha Des Obeaux in Ireland (who I have tipped ante post for the RSA chase).

So all in all, quite a busy day…

Doncaster

12:25 Valseur du Granval is the first of 2 eye catchers running today – and he has a decent chance.

He caught the eye on his penultimate run at Chepstow, when winning very easily.

I felt he could cope with a step up in grade – but he found himself in a very strong novice race at Newbury, last time and he wasn’t quite up to the job…

He’s found himself in quite a strong novice race again today – even if he does only face 3 rivals - 2 of whom are making their chasing debuts.

It’s not an easy race to assess – and whilst Valseur du Granval could very well be up to winning it, I’ll be letting him run unbacked, at a best price of 2/1…

2:05 This is a really strong mares race – and I’m not too surprised to see that Briery Belle has been backed into a very short looking 6/4…

She’s a very likeable mare – who is progressing from race to race and has a great attitude.

However, she shouldn’t be a 6/4 shot in this company…

She faces at least 4 rivals who are capable of giving her a run for her money – and whilst I would just about make her race favourite, she would be priced up in my book, at 2/1 – or slightly bigger…

Kalane is second favourite in the betting – and she definitely has a chance…

She put in a much improved performance last time, when wining over todays course – though has been raised 11lb for that victory, which seems a bit harsh.

Viky du Reponet is third favourite - but she is having her first start in the UK, and is impossible to accurately assess.

The fact she is trained by Paul Nicholls means she has to be respected  - though I suspect she will improve for the run.

Desert Queen and The Organist are the 2 other main dangers to Briery Belle – and my feeling is that they are the ones she has to beat.
She actually beat them both last time out at Warwick – but that was on much softer ground.

That wouldn’t have suited The Organist at all, and I would expect her to run much better this afternoon.

However, the best bet in the race is Desert Queen.
She really served it up to Briery Belle at Warwick and only gave best, after the final fence.

She will find it easier to get home today – and if I felt she would get an uncontested lead, I would be prepared to tip her.

However, there are 3 others in the race who also like to lead – so there is a chance there will be a pace war.
I suspect Desert Queen would win such a battle – but she may have to go a bit too hard in order to do so…

Certainly if she does get a relatively easy lead, then I think she will be very difficult to pass – even for Briery Belle…

3:10 I was hoping to take a risk on Willoughby Hedge in this – and would have been quite happy with the 8/1 available last night.

However, you would have struggled to get 5/1 first thing this morning – and that’s too short for a horse with some question marks hanging over him…

He won over course and distance on his penultimate start in February – and whilst he is 6lb higher in the handicap today, that might not stop him

However, the horse fractured his pelvis last spring – and was pulled up on his only run since – so there is no guarantee that he retains his ability.
Like I said, he comes with risks !

If he is right, then he probably has the ability to defy his current mark – particularly as conditions should be perfect for him. However we are guessing on how much ability remains..

This is also quite a trappy race.

I don’t strongly fancy any of his rivals – but I wouldn’t be quick to write many of them off, either…

It’s the kind of race where the betting will probably guide – I would take notice of any horse that is quietly backed through the day (maybe Chris will be able to monitor the market and spot which one it is !)

Kelso

12:30 Island Heights is the second eye catcher running today.

He caught the eye two runs back, when finishing strongly in a decent race at Carlisle.

However, he’s not done so well on his 2 runs since – and as I think he really wants soft ground and hurdles (rather than quick ground and fences).

I’m not inclined to support him today…
Instead, I’m going to take him on with Scotswell.

He half caught my eye last time at Carlisle, when running behind some very decent horses.

He showed up well for quite a long way in that race – though he was ultimately well beaten.
I thought he might be dropped further in the handicap than 2lbs – which is why I didn’t make him an official eye catcher.
However, it is very interesting that he is re-united with jockey Thomas Dowson today – having been ridden by Jan Faltesjek last time.

Dowson claims 7lb - and has already ridden Scotswell to victory – over todays course and distance and on good ground.

He was 5lb lower in the handicap that day – but what’s 5lb when everything else is in your favour ?!

In fairness, Dowson also rode the horse 3 runs ago, when he finished a very creditable runner-up to One for Arthur. I doubt there is anything of that calibre in todays race – and Scotswell gets to run off a mark 2lb lower this afternoon.

Simply, I can’t see why he won’t run a very big race – and 7/1 looks like a fair price…

There are certainly dangers in the race – with Blue Kascade probably the main one. The fact he could pester Scotswell for the lead is also undesirable – but hopefully young Dowson will work that one out.

Aside from him, the other I’m a little fearful of, is Swing Hard.
He was pulled up on his seasonal debut and is weak in the betting today.
Hopefully he will remain that way, because if he is in peak form he would be a real danger.

1:40 I could have been quite interested in Caraline in this – but he’s another one that was hammered in the betting last night…

He opened up at 6/1, which I thought was plenty short enough - but was a best price of 4/1 by this morning.

He does have a very good win record – and is young enough to still be progressing. He should also be better for his seasonal debut – but this is quite a competition race and there is no margin in the price now available.

2:45 Ascot de Bruyere and Just Georgie were the two I was most interested in this – but you’ve guess it – they have both been backed to prices where the value has all gone…

As with the other well backed horses, they may well drift nearer the off – but the question is whether you want to be with a horse which the market isn’t too keen on.

That’s never an easy one to call: sometimes the drift is down simply to market dynamics – but on other occasions, it is down either to another horse being well fancied – or worst of all ,the horse in question not being fancied at all !

Leopardstown

12:20 Katnap is yet another horse that I was quite interested in, that was very well backed last night (if you are fed up reading about them - just imagine how I feel finding them !).
In fairness, this was more expected, as he is having his first run for Joseph O’Brien, so market popularity was always highly likely.

Certainly he is capable of defying a mark of 122 – and I wouldn’t be put off if he did drift pre-race (as it would most probably be a market correction).

The other one of interest is FR Humphrey.

In truth the contest might be a bit hot for him – but he has the ability to win a race off his current mark.

That said, I suspect this is a much hotter race than you would expect for the grade – so maybe not one to get heavily involved in…

1:55 There might not be a tip in this race – but there is certainly an interest…

I have tipped Alpha Des Obeaux for the RSA chase at the Cheltenham festival – and whilst he doesn’t have to win today to keep that bet alive, he probably needs to run with credit…

In truth, I would be very hopeful that he will do just that.
For a start, Gigginstown have 4 runners in the race – and it’s a positive sign that their retained jockey, Bryan Cooper, is on board Alpha Des Obeaux.

Willie Mullins has 2 runners in the race – but I’ll be a little surprised if either Briar Hill or Bellow Mome are good enough.

The biggest danger to Alpha Des Obeaux is likely to be Coney Island.

He came out on top when the pair met last time at Fairyhouse at the beginning of the month. However that was over 2m4f – and I think that todays longer trip will better suit Alpha Des Obeaux.

Whether it will suit him sufficiently to enable him to turn the tables, is a different matter – but I wouldn’t expect there to be much between the pair.

The other one of potential interest is a Gigginstown runner, Prince of Scars.

He got the better of Alpha Des Obeaux when they met over hurdles at this meeting 12 months ago.

Alpha Des Obeaux has looked the better chaser – but clearly Prince of Scars has the natural ability to beat him, if everything goes right.

He doesn’t look like a bad insurance bet, at 14/1…

2:30 A bit like Vroom Vroom Mag yesterday, in all probability, Nichols Canyon will win this.

His price of 1/2 looks short – but he is by far the most likely race winner…

Maybe the best thing, is to try and figure out what will chase him home.

Petit Mouchior is odds on for that role – but I think there could be some value in Jers Girl.
She was runner up to Nichols Canyon last time, at Punchestown – and that was on her seasonal debut.
I would expect her to improve markedly for that run – and whilst that is still likely to see her behind the favourite, it might see her in front of the remainder…

A straight forecast is the obvious play – though the 4/1 in the ‘without Nichols Canyon’ market, holds some appeal…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

DT Kel 12:30 Scotswell 0.25pt win 7/1

Mentions

Donc 2:05 Desert Queen (C )

Donc 3:10 Willoughby Hedge (P )

Kel 1:40 Caraline (P )

Leop 12:20 Katnap (P )

Leop 2:30 Jers Girl (O )

Eye Catchers

Donc 12:25 Valseur du Granval

Kel 12:30 Island Heights

Daily write-up - Dec 28th

There are 4 NH meetings today (probably): at Leicester and Catterick in the UK – and Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland…

After the quality of Kempton, Chepstow and Wetherby, it’s back down to earth with a bump !

The meetings at Leicester and Catterick offer low grade racing, with little of interest.

Things are slightly better at Limerick, where there is a listed hurdle and a veterans chase – but it’s hardly inspiring stuff…

Fortunately, the Leopardstown Christmas meeting reaches its peak with the Lexus chase.

There are also a number of good class supporting races on the card - most notably the Christmas hurdle.

That said, betting opportunities, are thin on the ground.

It didn’t take me too long to realise that there would be no tips on the day.

There are no Top Picks either - and not even an Eye Catcher running.

All I’ve managed to find, are a few Mentions…

Here are my thoughts on the main races on the Leopardstown card…

Leopardstown

12:50 As you would expect for a Pertemps qualifier, this looks a bit of a minefield…

There are 25 runners and it is difficult to eliminate more than 10, with any degree of confidence…

Woodford Island finished third in the corresponding race last year, as a 4 year old – and off a mark just 1lb lower. He’s been running over fences recently, but returned to the smaller obstacles today, he must have a chance.
If the ground were softer, I would also give Rathpatrick a chance.

He was behind Woodford Island 12 months ago – but won on his next outing, when Barry Geraghty took over in the saddle.
Geraghty is on board today – which makes him interesting, particularly if he is backed…

Rossvoss ran well last time out, on his first run of the season – though he doesn’t look particularly well handicapped: whilst Voices of Spring is of interest, for Tony Martin – and with Donagh Myler on board.

In truth however, you are probably best either supporting the markets mover - or just watching the race (which is probably what I will do !).

1:20 This is a really strong Beginners chase – and whilst the market only gives 3 of them a chance, I’m not so sure…

Gangster, Acapella Bourgeois and Bleu et Rouge are the 3 that head the betting – and they all have good chances.

Gangster is probably the one that appeals most – but he is plenty short enough at 2/1.

It is interesting that Barry Geraghty rides Bleu et Rouge, as I could give a good chance to owner companion, Don’t Touch It.

Both horses won Grade 1 events over hurdles last season  - and Don’t Touch It has the benefit of a recent run over fences.

I wouldn’t be surprised if there is not much between the 2 horses and at more than double the price, Don’t Touch It looks the better bet.

The other 2 worthy of a mention are Gwencily Berbas and Jett.
I could see both running well – though maybe not quite well enough to win…

1:50 Whilst according to the form book, she is no certainty in this, I expect Vroom Vroom Mag will find a way to win.

Having won the mares hurdle at the Cheltenham festival and the Champion hurdle at the Punchestown festival ,it was a little surprising to see her beaten on her seasonal debut at Fairyhouse, by Apples Jade.

However, that one is also an exceptional talent and Vroom Vroom Mag lost little in failing by a short head, to give her 4lb.

She will doubtless have improved a little for the run – and, with the mares allowance, she looks very much the one to beat in this.

That said, she does face some potentially tough rivals.

Chief amongst them is Snow Falcon, who we were on last time when he fell at Newbury.
He was still going very nicely when he came down that day and may well have give n Unnowhatimeanharry a race.
That is decent form – so he shouldn’t be underestimated.
If his jumping was more robust, he would look an EW bet to nothing – but as was shown at Newbury, his technique isn’t great and there will always be the chance that he will make a race ending mistake at some point.

Of the others, then Shaneshill and Clondaw Warrior should both run OK – but I can’t see them wining.

Kotkikova is the potential fly in the ointment.

She makes her debut for Nicky Henderson today, having won a grade 1 chase in her native France. She really could be anything – and it’s interesting that Henderson is choosing to start her in this race.

The market will almost certainly guide on her chances…

The only other one to make any appeal, is De Plotting Shed.

He is held on form by Snow Falcon – but not by a huge amount.

He has the greater scope for improvement –and his hurdling isn’t quite so chancy !

At 25/1, he could be worth considering EW (assuming all 8 go to post)

2:25 There aren’t many novice handicap hurdles run in Ireland – and it’s not easy to get a proper handle on this one.
That said, Tudor City sets a very high standard for a race of this kind…

He looked sure to win a hot novice handicap hurdle at Cheltenham last time out, but was out-battled up the hill.

He gets to run off just a pound higher mark today - and has Donagh Myler in the saddle to off set that.

He was a massively impressive winner on the flat at Limerick on his previous outing – and I’ll be a bit surprised if there is anything able to match him in this field…

Unfortunately, there is too much guesswork involved to consider getting involved 

– and his early weakness in the market is a little concerning.

If his price firms up nearer the off, I would expect him to win – if it doesn’t, I don’t know what will…

3:00 If you knew that he was in A1 condition, then Road to Riches EW, would probably be the bet of the Christmas period, in this…

Third in the 2015 Gold Cup and 2016 Ryanair chase and runner up in last seasons Irish Gold Gup, a peak form Road to Riches would almost certainly finish in the frame in this race.

He will get the decent ground he needs – and he has run most of his best races on the back of an absence.

However, he was operated on, following his run at Gowran in October and his trainer Noel Meade has said that he is likely to come on for the run…
In my experience, the market tends to tell things more accurately than the trainer – so keep a close eye on his price as the off time approaches.

Ignoring him, then it does look the 2 horse race that the market suggests…

Djackadam and Valseur Lido have much better form than all of their rivals – and they rightly head the betting.

It is possible that the likes of Zabana or Outlander will improve: or that Don Poli or Lord Windermere will bounce back to form – but they all come with significant risks.

Of the outsiders, then Fine Rightly is the one that attracts me most - and 16/1 about him finishing in the first 3, isn’t too bad a bet.

However, he is likely to finish third at best – and even that will rely on a number of his rivals under performing…

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

None

Mentions

Leop 1:20 Don’t Touch It (O )

Leop 2:25 Tudor City (S )

Leop 3:00 Road to Riches (C )

Review of the day

I’m starting to get the feeling that someone up there doesn’t like me – or at least, doesn’t like my tips…

I issued 3 of them today – and managed to find two thirds and a fourth.

If I was tipping EW, then that would be OK – but I tend to tip win only – so that’s not so good…

Somewhat ironically, the only tip I did issue EW was a non runner – and seeing as the horse she had beaten last time, won the race, you have to think she would have gone very close.

That’s the way things are falling at the moment…

It terms of the tips that did run: then Awaywithegreys ran first and he finished a creditable fourth at Chepstow.

He had won the corresponding race in the past 3 seasons – but he couldn’t live with the younger legs this time round.

The next tip to run was Beltor – and he ran even better.

He was a couple of lengths clear approaching the final hurdle – and seemingly still going easily – but he met the obstacle wrong and lost his momentum.

He was gaining again as the line approached – but the race had been lost.

He’s another one to add to the ‘should have won’ pile – having traded at 1.24 in running…

Just Cameron maybe shouldn’t have won – but he still ran a huge race.

He was a massive pre-race drifter – presumably because the bookmakers had him so short in the market, nobody wanted to back him !

He was clearly oblivious to the fact that the market said he couldn’t win – and was still travelling strongly turning in.

However, as I suggested this morning, Yorkist was always likely to be a danger and he took his measure between the final two fences and held off the late challenge of Doctor Phoenix…

There was some relief with the victory of Top Pick, Aso.

He never drifted to anything bigger than 2/1 – but the case for him was very solid.

He got the job done, in unspectacular fashion.

There was no joy for any of the mentions: Bishops Road always looked to be struggling in the ground at Chepstow – though I’m sure there will be other days for him…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Dec 27th

There are 5 NH meetings today: at Kempton, Chepstow and Wetherby in the UK – plus Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland.

Another very busy day – though it doesn’t feel quite as manic as yesterday.

In fact, whilst I’m a bit disappointed by the way the Welsh National has worked out, I quite like the look of some of the days other races...

Certainly, the tips could do with a bit of luck – though I can’t force it.

All I can do is try to remain consistent in the way I pick them and hope that things turn.

I’ve ended up with 4 tips on the day – plus the same number of mentions, an eye catcher and a Top Pick !

Here are my thoughts on the day…

Chepstow

12:50 A really open race, in which all bar Knight of Noir, can be given a chance.

My initial feeling was that Ballycross might be the one – even though he was beaten by Sykes on his most recent run.
He finished like a train that day – and if the race is strongly run, nothing will be coming home better.

That said, I do wonder if 3 miles on reasonable ground, will provide sufficient test of stamina for him…

Tempestatefloresco finished runner up in that race – and he must have a chance of reversing the form with Sykes on a pound better terms.

He was certainly travelling best from the second last and was just worried out of it, close home.
That said, it will be no surprise, should any of the other 4 runners win…

Pobbles Boy easily won a novice event at Uttoxeter, on his chasing debut.

Subsequent events have shown the form to be extremely strong. However, Pobbles Boy has to run off a 14lb higher mark today – and has half a mile further to cover.

He could be up to the task – but there is little margin in his price (9/2).

Definite Outcome also has a chance. He too won well on his chasing debut – before unseating next time at Aintree.

I would fancy both of those a little more than either Ibis de Rheu or Pearl Swan.

All in all, it too difficult a race to be confident about.

At the available prices, then Tempestatefloresco is the value call at 12/1 – but it’s a race that is probably best watched…

1:25 I was quite tempted by Anteros in this…

He did is a huge favour earlier in the season when winning at Cheltenham – and I can see him running well again today.
The trouble is, whilst I can see him running well, I can’t quite see him winning.
He ran well last time out – again at Cheltenham – but the reality is that the handicapper has probably just got his measure.
I think Paul Moloney is a decent jockey booking for a horse who is best ridden patiently – and I can see him gradually creeping into things up the home straight.

However, if I were to tip him, it would have to be each way – and the potential profit on him getting placed, doesn’t quite seem to justify the risk…

Instead, I’m going to take a bigger risk on Awaywithegreys…

He has actually won this race for the last 3 years – so it’s a bit surprising that he is a 16/1 shot today.
That’s particularly so, considering that he is racing off a lower mark today than he was for any of the previous wins – and that’s ignoring the 7lb claim of his jockey.

The issue with him, is that he is coming into the race having shown no recent form – however it was the same story 12 months ago.

There is also a general belief that he is better on heavy ground – and it is true that he handles heavy ground better than most, however he won’t have an issue with ground on the soft side.

As a 9 year old, his best days are probably behind him – but you can almost guarantee that he will be at his peak today.
Whether that will be good enough for him to get the better of some younger and more progressive rivals, is open to debate – but I think he is worth a small risk at a big price.

2:40 I think you all know that I wanted to tip Bishops Road in this…

He was an eye catcher last time out, on his seasonal debut in the Rehersal chase at Newcastle – and the form of that race was franked today at Wetherby, by Definitly Red.

However, Bishops Road really wants soft ground (or worse) – and there has been little rain for the past 2 weeks.
Additionally, the late change of plan which has seen Native River running, has completely altered the complexion of the race.

He was a good winner of the Hennessy and off the same mark today, is going to be very hard to beat.
I might still have taken a chance on Bishops Road – but the booking of Paul Moloney doesn’t inspire me.
I just feel that if Kerry Lee was really going for it, either Jamie Moore would be on board – or a conditional jockey, able to claim some weight off the horses back, would have taken the ride.
Ofcourse I could be wrong – and as he’s now almost 20/1, I will doubtless have a little flutter on him. However, I don’t feel I can tip him…

The other one I could be interested in is Onenightinvienna.
He was one of two horses that I put up in my ante-post preview, that I felt would have a fair chance on decent ground.

He was a 25/1 shot then – but is 8/1 now…

With Richard Johnson presumably choosing Native River in preference to him, he makes very limited appeal at that price…

In truth, this doesn’t look the deepest of races – and it’s not hard to see Native River leading throughout.
His price of 3/1 is too short to consider getting involved with, but I’m not keen to take him on either…

3:15 It’s really difficult to look beyond Aso in this…

He’s been placed in two ultra competitive Cheltenham handicaps only his only runs this season - and gets into this much easier race today, off virtually the same mark (just 1lb higher).

He will be well suited by todays trip and ground – and simply, if he is in the same form that he’s been in the last twice, he will win…

Drumlee Sunset is the obvious danger, as he still has scope for improvement - however, so too does Aso.

I’m not going to start tipping 2/1 shots – but if you can get that price, I think he’s a fair bet.

I expect him to win – so will make him a Top Pick.

Kempton

1:45 It’s not a betting race, but make sure you watch Altior in this…

He’s a potential superstar – and provided there are no accidents, he should take the race en route to a showdown with Min, in the Arkle, at the Cheltenham festival…

2:20 Again, not really a betting race, but Special Tiara should be able to take advantage of the 10lb he receives from Sire de Grugy.

The quicker ground will suit Special Tiara better than his main rival – and I expect him to make all.

Even money is very fair – if you like betting at that kind of price…

2:55 I’m pretty keen on Beltor in this – though just a little nervous about some of the unexposed horses he faces..!

He is a horse who first burst on to the scene, when winning a grade 2 event as a  4 year old, over todays course and distance.

On the back of that win, he was sent off at just 7/1 for the Triumph hurdle – but Cheltenham was never going to play to his strengths in the way that Kempton does.

Simply Beltor is a speed horse – so a flat track and quick ground are what he needs.

He actually got both on his seasonal debut at Huntingdon – and travelled really strongly in the race, but didn’t get home.

His next run was on the AW at Kempton - and on the back of some strong market support, he comfortably beat Wolf of Windlesham.

That suggested that Beltor is at the top of his game – and he could easily make the handicapper pay for his decision to drop him 5lb following his Huntingdon run.

Certainly, conditions will be perfect for him today – and assuming there is some pace in the race, he looks sure to run well.

The big fear with the race is that there are quite a lot of unexposed horses running (certainly for this type of race, at this time of year).

Wait for Me, Aptasou and Drumcliff could all be a fair bit better than their current marks.

However, the market is wise to all 3 - and I hope that the proven form of Beltor proves to be the better option.

The other one worth a mention, is Bertimont.
He travelled really well to the home turn, last time out on his second run back after a long absence.
I’m hoping he will make the running today – and could see him hanging around for longer than people expect.
He can be backed at a very big price – and looks to be the ideal sort for a pre-race back to lay in running…

3:30 Whilst there is a relatively small field for this, it is a competitive race.

Go Conquer was made favourite for a stronger race at Ascot, just before Christmas – but he fell at the first fence. The suggestion is that someone believes he is well handicapped, so assuming he jumps round without issue, he is likely to go well.

Bally Longford has made his way to favouritism and that is understandable on the back of a very good run at Cheltenham last time. He looked the most likely winner, turning for home that day – but didn’t get up the hill as well as his 2 main rivals.

There will be much less emphasis on stamina today – so if he can repeat that effort, he looks the one to beat…

Out Sam was made favourite for the Cheltenham race – but his jumping was dreadful and he eventually fell.

Kempton is not an easy course to jump round and it would be difficult to support him on the back of that run.

More Buck’s is the one that tempts me most.

He has impressed me this season, in winning 3 of his 4 races.

Admittedly he has been running against a lower level of opposition than he meets today – but he looks a progressive sort.

If I were to get involved n the raced, it would probably be with him – and I think there is a chance that he will drift to an acceptable price (I would be interested at 6/1).

The other one who half interests me, is Howlongisafoot.

He is having his third run for Chris Gordon today – and whilst he’s not shown much in his previous 2, he is falling down the handicap at quite some rate.
He ran in this race 12 months ago, off a mark 15lb higher.

He is still only 7 and it is only a matter of time, before he becomes competitive again. That might not happen today – but at 25/1+, I wouldn’t put anyone off taking a small risk on him…

Wetherby

3:05 I do like the chance of Just Cameron in this – even if I wasn’t so happy about the way his price was crashing first thing this morning…

I hit exactly the same issue early in the season, when I planned to tip Drumlee Lad and his price was crushed.

Clearly, someone issues tips just after 8:00 – and he and I tend to be attracted to similar horses.

It’s very difficult to know what to do in these situations.
Obviously, I don’t want you to be taking under the odds – nor jeopardising your accounts:  but equally, I don’t want to be missing winners.

Last time, the price had halved - and it was a minor race, so I decided against getting involved.
This time, the price had dropped by around a third – and it was a bigger race, so I figured it was still worth issuing.
Let’s hope I made the right call !
In terms of Just Camerons chance, then he’s a horse who has been on my radar for a couple of years.

He is a very talented individual, as his second to Un De Sceaux in a Grade 1 at Punchestown, 2 seasons ago, demonstrates.

I actually tipped him last season, also on his second run of the campaign, when he finished runner up to Dandridge at Doncaster.
That was a big run, against a very well handicapped horse - and Just Cameron can race today off a mark 1lb lower.

He has every chance on that form…

Apertix is favourite for todays race – but he is climbing the handicap quickly and he will find this much tougher than the 2 races he has won recently.

Arthurs Oak and Yorkist are the other two at the head of the market – but both of them would prefer much softer ground.
I did actually consider a saver on Yorkist – as I see him as the biggest danger and it strikes me as significant that Harry Skelton is at Wetherby to ride him…

Half chances can also be given to Imjoeking and Aye Well – but they are not in the same class at Just Cameron.

Leopardstown

1:20 As with the 2 races at Kempton, this isn’t a betting race – but it is one you should watch…

Douvan is possibly the most talented horse in training (accepting that Thistlecrack might have something to say about that !) – and assuming he jumps round cleanly, he will be way too good for todays rivals.

The trip is too short for Black Hercules, meaning that Sizing John is the most likely to follow him home.

That said, 10/1 about Alisier Dirlande in the ‘without Douvan’ market doesn’t look like a bad bet…

3:00 With 28 runners and over 100K Euro first prize, this is probably the most competitive race of the entire Christmas period.

I’m hoping that the key to unlocking it, is the Troytown chase, which was run at Navan, at the end of November.

A number of the runners in todays race, also ran in that – and Bonny Kate did best of them…

She actually did very well indeed – finishing third behind Empire of Dirt.

Turning into the straight, she looked to be going best of all – but it was her first run of the season, and she didn’t quite get home.
She still managed to finish in front of Noble Endeavour and Venetian de Mai – and I can’t see any reason why they should turn the tables on her.

In fact all the run did, was suggest that Bonny Kate was still improving.
She developed into a really useful mare last season – and was sent off favourite for the Irish National.

For some reason, she didn’t front run that day – and put in a below par effort.

Maybe it was just a long season catching up on her - and she certainly looked back to her best, last time at Navan.

Part of the attraction with her, is that she likes to race prominently. The importance of that, should never be underestimated in these big race fields as it means you are far less likely to hit traffic problems.

I really do think that her credentials are rock solid – and whilst you can never be confident in a race such as this, I will be very disappointed, if she doesn’t run a huge race…

Her style of racing will always make her vulnerable towards the end of a race, so I felt I had to go each way, in case something picks her off, close home.

There are a few others of interest in the race – but non are as solid as Bonny Kate.
The Crafty Butcher represents Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh and is difficult to quantify: the same is true of It Came to Pass, who was a very useful hunter chaser and is having only his second run under rules in this.
I could also be interested in top weight, Otago Trail.

It’s unusual for Venetia to have a runner in Ireland – though this one is a much better horse on heavy ground…

Limerick

2:10 I did plan to construct a case for Sumos Novios in this – but he’s just been declared a non runner !

With him out of the race, I don’t have a particularly strong view on it…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

BRT Chep 1:25 Awaywiththegreys 0.25pt win 16/1

BRT Kemp 2:55 Beltor 0.375pt win 8/1

BRT Kemp 3:05 Just Cameron 0.375pt win 11/2

BRT Leop 3:00 Bonny Kate 0.25pt EW 16/1

Mentions

Chep 12:50 Tempestatefloresco (O )

Chep 2:40 Bishops Road (C )

Kemp 3:30 More Buck’s (O )

Kemp 3:30 Howlongisafoot (S )

Top Picks

Chep 3:15 Aso (7/4)

Eye Catchers

Chep 2:40 Bishops Road