Daily write-up - Dec 9th

There are 3 NH meetings today: at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Bangor.

Needless to say, the big meeting of the day is at Cheltenham – but the 2 supporting cards, aren’t bad at all.

If time permitted, I could probably have previewed a few races at each of them – but time is always the enemy – particularly during the week…

Consequently, my focus has been on Cheltenham – though I’ve also covered the race of most interest at Bangor.

Here are my thoughts – including the rationale behind the days tips…

Cheltenham

12:20 A really interesting novice chase to open the card – but it’s not an easy one to call. 

That said, I’d be happy enough taking on second favourite, Arpege Dalene, who doesn’t look a natural over fences…

If the ground were softer, I would be quite keen on Label Des Obeaux – but he might struggle for pace on today’s quick surface.

Even with the maximum penalty, I would make Emerging Markets the most likely winner – though he is favourite for the race.

He comfortably beat Laurium, on his chasing debut at Hereford – and whilst that one improved to win at Exeter, I would fancy Emerging Market to uphold the form.

I would expect both of the outsiders to run well: Restless Dreamer likes to front run –and could be tricky to pass, if getting into a rhythm; whilst Singlefarmpayment seems to be gradually getting the hang of jumping fences.

That said, neither one has the star potential you would expect from the winner of this race.

12:55 This looks quite a low grade affair for the course – with a number of the runners more used to plying their trade at minor tracks…

Yes I did and Song Saa are exceptions to that statement – and they would be the two I would be inclined to focus on…

Yes I did has some decent novice hurdling form to her name from last season – and was successful on her first try over fences at Fontwell, last month.
It was only a 3 runner affair, but she won with a lot in hand and there has to be a chance that she is a fair bit better than her current rating of 124.

Song Saa is even less exposed than Yes I Did and was having only the seventh run of her life, when finishing third on her chasing debut at Warwick, last time.

She is likely to be better for the outing – and for the experience,

In theory, she is held by Troubled Soul, who finished second in that race. However, Song Saa has greater scope for improvement, and I would expect her to reverse that form.

1:30 If I was playing this race with a completely straight bat, then A Good Skin would have to be the selection…

He finished second in the Kim Muir at last seasons Cheltenham festival, off a mark just 1lb lower than he races off today.

He was only beaten by a very well handicapped horse – and must have a great chance of going one better today.
Trip and ground will be perfect for him: he acts on the course; is from a stable having an amazing season – and should be fully primed, following a couple of runs this season.

He literally has a tick in every box – and it’s very difficult to see him not running a huge race…

However, there is one horse in the race who I think might be able to beat him.

Out Sam can’t boast the same level of form in the book as A Good Skin – but he was sent off favourite for the 3 mile handicap chase on the opening day off last seasons Cheltenham festival.

That was a particularly hot race – and yet Out Sam was made 13/2 favourite to win it, on only his 4^th run over fences.

Clearly some people thought he was a very well handicapped horse…

Unfortunately, it all proved a bit much for him that day – and he couldn’t cope with the hustle and bustle of the 23 runners – coupled with the Cheltenham fences.

He was unable top secure a place early in the race and did well to eventually finish seventh.

His next run was in a grade 1 novice chase at Aintree – but he wasn’t quite up to that challenge.

As a result of those 2 runs, his mark has been dropped by 3lb.
He therefore gets into today’s weaker race off a very attractive mark.
He is likely to cope much better with the smaller field – and he should be ready to run his race, having had a pipe opener over hurdles at the last meeting.

If he deserved to be favourite at last seasons festival, then he really should win this race today…

Of the others, then Sausalito Sunrise has a huge task on to win off his current rating of 157 – even if he did run very well off a mark 2lb higher in last seasons Bet365 chase;

Similarly, Southfield Theatre will find this much tougher off a 7lb higher mark, than he did when almost winning the Badge Ale trophy, last time.

I’m a little fearful of Bally Longford, who has a similar profile to Viscount de Noyer.
Colin Tizzard stepped that one up in trip, to win well at the last Cheltenham meeting – and there’s a chance the same could happen with Bally Longford today.
That said, Bally Longford is more exposed than Viscount was…

In summary, I think this race is between 2 horses:

A Good Skin sets the standard – but there’s a chance that Out Sam will be able to surpass it.

As for a forecast on the pair – stranger things happen…

2:05 He’s not one for the faint hearted, but I can’t resist a small play on Bertie Boru in this…

He’s running from 4lb out of the handicap, but that’s irrelevant as I’m sure he could be much better than his current rating of 124.
However, there is one thing that continually holds him back – an inability to jump !

In the circumstances it may seem a little odd putting him up for a race like this – but I just wonder if it’s exactly the kind of challenge he needs.

Time and again, he travels through his races like a decent horse – but then he whacks a few fences and that is it.

In terms of natural ability, I reckon he’s a horse capable of rating 140+ - and if that is the case – and he takes to the cross country course - then he’s got a big chance today.

It strikes me as interesting, that Philip Hobbs is even running him in the race. After all, Hobbs knows precisely what it takes to win these races, having trained Balthazaar King to dual festival triumphs in the cross-country races.

Clearly this has the potential to go horribly wrong – but at 20/1, I think that’s a risk worth taking…

In terms of the other runners in the race, then it’s not an easy race to get your head round.

Cantlow and Bless the Wings have proven cross country form – though I do wonder if they will be able to cope with the classier Third Intention.

There is a raider from France - and one from the Czech Republic - but it’s impossible to get a proper handle on either of them.

The firm ground won’t be to the liking of all of the runners  – particularly Goonyella, who really would prefer to run in a bog !

Auvergnat is the final runner in the field. Like Cantlow, he is trained by Banks master Enda Bolger – and he could easily be good enough to win. However, supporting him would involve quite a lot of guesswork and he’s only a 4/1 shot.

In the circumstances, I’d rather take a guess on Bertie Brou – at least I’ll get a decent reward if I am right !

2:40 I’m not surprised to see Templeross and Call to Order are at the head of the market for this.

Both are relatively unexposed novices, with plenty of scope for improvement.

The booking of 10lb claimer for Templeross, is particularly eye catching – and there is a chance he will prove a good deal better than his current mark of 126.

For Good Measure is slightly more exposed than the other two – but he again has plenty of scope for improvement.

I could have been tempted by any of the 3 – at a price – but they head the market by some margin, and whilst I wouldn’t expect all of them to perform to expectations this afternoon, I would be a little surprised if at least one of them didn’t.

And that’s a shame, because without them in the field, I would be pretty keen on Anteros - again !

He did us a huge favour last time out – and I think he can cope with the subsequent 7lb rise in the handicap.

Certainly, the form of his win, was franked by Corrin Wood, last weekend – and Anteros beat him easily enough.
Todays quicker ground is a slight concern – but I suspect he will get away with it.

Furthermore, it is interesting to see that Paul Townend has come back over to ride him – his only ride on the card…

However, I just felt happier taking a risk on him as an outsider, than I do expecting him to run his race, when the market favours him.

An EW bet is certainly an option – as he must have a good chance of placing.
The trouble is, I struggle to see him getting the better of all 3 of the unexposed horses…

The other one in the field worth a mention, is Valhalla.

He was an eye catcher back in the pre-season – and this will be his third and final run as such, today.
He’s run well enough on his two previous eye catcher outings – and I suspect he will do the same again this afternoon.

I can’t really see any reason why he will win, however…

3:15 Another handicap hurdle where unexposed novices dominate the market…

Whatduhavetoget is the market leader – having only run twice over hurdles.

It says a lot that Dan Skelton is prepared to pitch her into a race such as this and I suspect she is the one to beat…

Solatenif and Air Horse One both have a little more experience than Whatduhavetoget – but not a lot.

However, they both also have plenty of scope for improvement – and could easily be much better than their current marks.

As with the previous race, I wouldn’t expect all 3 to perform to market expectations – but I’d be a little surprised if one of them didn’t…

Allee Bleue is similarly unexposed – but not quite so fancied in the market.
I suspect that is because he appears to have a preference for soft ground – but it wouldn’t surprise me if he coped with todays conditions and ran a big race.

Of the others, then Dresden is well handicapped based on chase form: whilst Eddiemarurice has been in very good form, and will enjoy todays quick ground.

3:45 For completeness: I’ve been very impressed by Sumkindofking on his 2 outings today – and I suspect it will take a good one to beat him.
However, there is a chance that he will bump into a good one this afternoon…

A watching race.

Bangor

1:15 I was pretty keen on Audacious Plan at a double figure price this morning  - though he makes less appeal at the current quote of 7/1…

In truth, I didn’t expect him to be backed quite as he has been – though I was a little surprised by the general 14/1 on offer this morning.
For a start, based simply on form he has a fair chance in this.

He ran 4^th at Cheltenham, just over 12 months ago, in a better race than this – and off a mark 3lb higher. Bearing in mind the form Rebecca Curtis was in last season, that run should probably be marked up.

He showed little on his remaining runs last season – or again, on his seasonal debut at Chepstow.

However there was distinct promise in his latest run over hurdles, when he finished fourth.
That suggested that all is well with him – and if that is the case, he could prove to be a nicely handicapped horse.
However, that’s not the only reason I like him this afternoon – I’m also pretty keen on the jockey booking.
Over the years, I’ve observed that Rebecca Curtis often goes the extra yard to secure the best jockey for her horses. She’s done it in the past with the likes of Davey Russell and Paul Townend – and the booking of Harry Cobden really catches the eye, this afternoon.
He’s never ridden for her before – so it strikes me as particularly significant (he has a second ride for her later on the card).

In short, this is a horse with the form in the book: some subtle signs – and at available at a decent price (early !).
A rare beast indeed !

That said, there are plenty of potential dangers in the race…

Waldorf Salad, Global Power and Gonalston Cloud are the 3 that worry me most.
I wouldn’t expect them all to perform – but any one of them could easily put in a big run and just about win.

Hopefully that won’t happen – and Audacious Plan will be able to justify my confidence (and the apparent confidence of others) and come home in front.
I’ve saved on him placing though – just in case..!

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

BRT Chel 1:30 Out Sam 0.25pt win 13/2

BRT Chel 1:30 A Good Skin 0.125pt win 7/1

BRT Chel 2:05 Bertie Boru 0.125pt win 20/1 (less R4)

DT Bang 1:15 Audacious Plan 0.25pt win, 0.125pt place 14/1

Eye Catchers

Chel 2:40 Valhalla