Daily write-up - Dec 4th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Kelso and Huntingdon in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

In terms of quality, then the Fairyhouse card is as good as it gets, outside of the Cheltenham festival.
There are 3 Grade 1 races; a Grade 3 contest; and a couple of top class handicaps.

I’m sure there will be plenty of pointers for season ahead - but there are limited betting opportunities…

The racing isn’t of quite the same quality at either Kelso or Huntingdon – though both put on perfectly acceptable cards, with the Grade 2 Peterborough chase the high-light.

I’m not tipping in the race – but we do have a big interest in it.

Tea for Two runs, as a prep race for a possible tilt at the King George.

I tipped him ante-post for that race at 33/1 – and he’s half that price now.
However, he needs to put in a big run this afternoon, to secure his place in the field…

Here are my thoughts on that race – and a few others, across the 3 cards.

Huntingdon

12:30 Ballycash caught my eye (unofficially speaking) last time out, at Southwell.

That was in a similar race to todays, and he swept into the lead on the home turn.
However, he then didn’t quite get home; suggesting that he either wasn’t fully tuned (unlikely); found the trip a bit too far (possible) or had a breathing issue (also possible).

If he was being dropped in trip today, I would probably take a risk on him – but he’s back over 2m4f.

In fairness, Huntingdon is a sharp track – and the ground will be relatively quick – so it will be a speed test.

However, that was also the case at Southwell…

I guess he could be ridden with more restraint this afternoon – and that might help.

However, the reality is, I’m struggling to see why he should do much better than he did last time.

I could certainly see him running a big race – and it wouldn’t totally shock me if he were to win – but I would just like to have a compelling reason to go with him…

In terms of the opposition, then there are 14 horses – and it’s not easy to get a handle on quite a few of them, so that doesn’t help.

Demographic is the obvious danger; whilst at a price, Modulus also catches the eye (particularly if he is backed).

An EW bet on Ballycassh could be tempting – but at just 7/1 in a 15 runner race, the odds aren’t that attractive…

2:00 As I mentioned in the introduction, whilst I don’t have a tip for this race – we do have a horse to be cheering on, in the shape of Tea for Two.

He’s an official eye catcher as well – from his seasonal debut run at Ascot – so we have two reasons for wanting him to run a big race this afternoon.

And I’m hopeful he will do just that – though the ground is likely to be as quick as he wants and the trip as short (particular as Huntingdon is a relatively fast track).

My feeling is that he might just be out sprinted by a quicker horse – but a staying on second or third, would be fine…

In terms of todays race winner, then it’s not an easy one to call.

I wouldn’t be particularly keen on More of That, over todays trip and round Huntington: and whilst Dodging Bullets is officially the best horse in the race (and conditions should suit), I’ve never been a massive fan…

I would therefore look to the 2 Nicky Henderson horses.

Josses Hill is quite capable of winning – if his jumping holds up: whilst I could see Volney de Thaix running better than his odds imply.

In short, I’m struggling to see a solid angle into the race - and in truth, don’t feel I need to.

Whatever I go with, I’ll have at least half an eye on Tea for Two, as he’s the one I want to see run well.

Fingers crossed !

3:30 Copperfacejack is the second official eye catcher to be running on the card.

He caught the eye last time, when runner up to the much improved Yanmare, at Warwick.

That was the second time in a row that Copperfacejack had bumped into Yanmare – and he will be unlucky to bump into such an upwardly mobile horse this afternoon…

I guess the issue is, in races such as this, you can never be completely sure as to what you will bump into.

A few of the runners are having their first runs over fences, so there is a chance they will improve dramatically for the switch.

Lime Street strikes me as the one most likely to do that – so I would take notice if he is well backed (currently around 12/1).

I’d be disappointed if Copperfacejack didn’t go very close in this – I just don’t feel quite strongly enough about him to warranting tipping at 2/1…

Kelso

12:50 Aux Ptit Soins is another horse who, whilst I’m not interesting backing today, I want to see run well.

I put him up in the forum, for the JLT chase at the Cheltenham festival.

My feeling was that he would be targeted at that race – but the fact he is running here over almost 3 miles, concerns me.

The JLT is over 2m4f – and it could be that Paul Nicholls sees him as more of a RSA horse (which is run over 3 mlies).

I would disagree – the horse didn’t seem to stay 3 miles when running in the World hurdle last year.

However, it’s Nicholls opinion that counts – and he has unleashed a few very smart 2m4f novices recently (including Politologue, who like Aux Ptit Soins, is owned by John Hales).

I do wonder if he is simply looking to juggle his pack, in order to give him chances in as many of the Cheltenham races, as possible…

I guess the hope this afternoon, is that Aux Ptit Soins wins – but is running on empty by the end of the race !

In truth, it’s a decent looking race – and whilst it’s never possible to be adamant with novices (as most are likely to be improvers), he is likely to have to put up a fairly useful performance if he is to win.

A watching (and hoping !) race…

2:20 As you all know, I do like my distance chases – but I’m struggling to find an angle into this one…

I am happy enough eliminating a few of the runners – but finding one that I fancy to win, is a different matter.

My initial feeling was that Harry the Viking could be the one. He is certainly well enough handicapped – and will stay the trip – but he’s not the most consistent of performers.

It could be best to back him in-running – if he seems to be on a ‘going’ day !

I could give half chances to 5 or 6 others – with Cultram Abbey and Smooth Stepper the 2 that probably interest me most.
However neither one interests me sufficiently to consider tipping it…

2:50 It’s a little bizarre, seeing Dynaste running in this veterans chase…

It doesn’t seem that long ago since he was winning the Ryanair chase at the Cheltenham m festival !

I’m sure he’s in decline – but he’s only 10 – and most of his recent races have been in Grade 1 events .

It’s not hard to see him proving way too good for this field…

2/1 could actually be a very good price – but it’s difficult to back a horse who you know is in decline (you just don’t know how sharp the decline is !).

More than that, this is a strong race (of its type).

There are certainly a number of horses running in it, who are capable of winning similar races – though conditions won’t be quite right for most of them…

The trip is likely to be too short for both Aerial an Gas Line Boy: whilst the ground too quick for Cloudy Too and Summary Justice.

Conditions should be perfect for Dynaste – and even with top weight, he really should take the world of beating…

Fairyhouse

2:10 It’s a brave man who takes on the JP McManus battalions in this…

He is responsible for 7 of 19 runners – and there is every chance he will have the winner.
Campeador looks the most likely, under Barry Geraghty.

He would have gone close in last seasons Fred Winter hurdle at the Cheltenham festival – and I’m sure he will be spot on for this very valuable pot.

That said, as is always the case with JPs runners, it will be imperative to keep an eye on the betting.
Whatever happens, is likely to be foretold by the pre-race market…

Rather than guessing that, I would be more inclined to take a chance on St Stephens Green.
He’s a very talented horse - if a slightly risky jumper !
If he does manage to get everything right today, then he has the ability to go very close.

2:40 As I’ve said before, it’s never easy to be adamant about novice events, because generally the runners are all open to improvement.

That said, if I was going to create a market for this race, I would have it almost exactly as the bookmakers do !

I think the race will most likely be won by Diamond King, A Toi Phil or Anibale Fly.

Which one comes out on top, will depend on how the race unfolds – and how good their jumping is, under pressure.

I was very impressed by A Tou Phil last time out – and he looks more of a natural chaser to me, than the other two.

Alpha Des Obeaux should run well (and may be the best bet to place) – but he is unlikely to quite have the pace, at the business end of the race…

3:10 I tipped Forever Gold last time out, when he was just beaten in the Cork National.
He ran a huge race that day and was a little unlucky to bump into a horse who was rolling back the years.

There has to be every chance that Forever Gold can go one better this afternoon, off a mark just 4lb higher. I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off backing him.
However, it’s a tough enough 12 runner handicap and 3/1 doesn’t look a great price, particularly when compared to the likes of Copperfacejack and Dynaste at 2/1…

Half cases can be made for a few, but if I was going to get involved in the race, it would likely be with outsider, Kansas City Chief.

He’s not guaranteed to get the trip – but if he does I don’t think he’s a 20/1 shot.
He ran out last time – but that was at the final fence and seemed a blip rather than as the result of a character defect,

He is a young horse - and was nicely progressive last season.

It’s impossible to know whether he is well handicapped – but he might be – and it could therefore be worth a small wager to find out…

Best of luck if you do get involved today.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

None

Eye Catchers

Hunt 2:00 Tea for Two

Hunt 3:30 Copperfacejack