Daily write-up - Dec 15th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Exeter and Towcester in the UK – plus Tramore in Ireland.

The UK meetings are typical midweek meetings – there are a few races of interest on each of the cards – but it’s difficult to see a solid angle into any of the races.

It’s low grade stuff at Tramore – and that meeting is probably best avoided, from a betting perspective…

We are now about a third of the way through the season – and as I’m sure you’ve all noticed, it’s been quite tough going !

We’ve spent most of the time treading water – and whilst that’s not disastrous, it’s not great either.

I’ve given a little thought to how it might be possible to move things forward – but unfortunately, there are no easy solutions.

Rather than cover it now, I’ll look to pull together my thoughts and send them out in a separate email…

I’ve previewed the two best races at both Exeter and Towcester, this afternoon – though there isn’t really much that I would be desperate to get involved with…

Exeter

1:00 This is a very trappy looking handicap – and it’s not easy to choose between the first 5 in the betting. All can be given a chance, depending on what path you want to take into the race…

Rocklander has been impressive in winning his last 2 starts  - but they were in lower grade events and he is now running from a mark 17lb higher than for his first win.

The handicapper will catch up with him sooner rather than later…

Lord of the Island was also a good winner last time out – but he will have to defy a 10lb higher mark today.

I would slightly prefer his chances to those of Rocklander.

Trans Express ran a fair race on his seasonal debut at Sandown – and if he has come on for that run, he must have a chance of at least placing.

It’s a similar story with Space Oddity – and he is the one I would be most interested in.

He too ran a nice race on his seasonal debut – and looked likely to improve for it.
He faces a similar class of opposition today and therefore I would expect him to go close.

The market is likely to advise on the chance of Lithic, who has his first run in a handicap after 3 runs in novice hurdles.

He’s impossible to get a proper handle on – but an opening mark of 114 doesn’t look too harsh.

Becasueshesaidso is by far the most interesting of the outsiders – though his apparent market weakness after 410 days off the track, has to be a concern.

In summary, Space Oddity is the one I would be most interested in this – but I see very little margin in a quote of 5/1, when a case of sorts can be made for a number of his rivals.

2:35 Another race which looks relatively open – and where the market seems to have the main contenders priced about right…

If Castarnie can build on his seasonal debut run behind Royal Palladium, he is the one to beat. However, he’s not guaranteed to do that – and the drop back in trip today, looks a slightly strange move.

Long John won this race 12 months ago – and off the same mark as the one he runs from today.

He should strip fitter for his seasonal debut – and there is no reason why he shouldn’t run his race.

At 9/2, he’s close to an EW bet to nothing…

Flaming Charmer would have a big chance on the best of his old form – but he was off the track for 18 months prior to being pulled up on his recent run over hurdles.

You would like to see a little more before supporting him (at relatively short odds, anyway).

Dance Floor King is crashing down the handicap – and did show a little, last time out.
If he was able to recapture anything close to his best form, he’d win this – but its always risky supporting horses who are in decline…

It’s a similar story with Ballinvarrig.
At his best, he would win this – and I could easily forgive a poor seasonal debut run at Cheltenham (where the course wouldn’t have suited him).

However, he disappointed a little on a couple of occasions at the back end of last season and you have to wonder if time is catching up with him.

This is a very difficult race to call – and victory for any of the 5 mentioned wouldn’t come as a big surprise.

I would expect Long John to run his race and get placed – but Flaming Charmer might be more likely to win (or to get pulled up !)

Towcester

12:40 This is arguably the most interesting race of the day.

I tipped Nightline on his most recent run at Market Rasen, when the ground turned against him

He should get decent ground today – so in theory, must have a chance.

However, the removal of the hood and tongue tie – and the replacement of Richard Johnson in the saddle, with Graham Watters, hardly shouts of connections going all out for a win…

Duke Arcadio is favourite for the race.
He ran well on his seasonal debut and whilst you have to respect his chances, I’m not sure he should be such a short price.

The trouble is, there are at least half a dozen you could look to take him on with (including Nightline) – but whilst you could make half a case for them all, you would struggle to make a solid case for any of them…

Drumviredy, Crown Hill, Paddy the Deejay, Goohar, Precious Ground, Battle Dust and Ballypoint, are all of some interest – though certainly not sufficient for me to consider tipping any of them.

Ballypoint is possibly the most interesting (at the prices). He’s rated 122 – and is running in a 0–120 chase, which in itself is quite novel ! (they’ve changed the rules recently allowing horses rated above the race ceiling to run !)

He’s been disappointing on his 2 runs this season – but looked quite useful last season.

If the application of a tongue tie has the desired effect, I could see him running well.

Precious Ground is also quite interesting, on his first try over fences.

He’s 3lb out of the handicap – but ran a nice race over hurdles on his seasonal debut.

Again, I could see him outrunning his odds.

This said, there’s just too much guesswork required, to seriously consider getting involved with the race.

1:40 Yanmare is an understandable favourite for this…

He’s already won twice this season – and seems to be on a steep upward trajectory.

The handicapper has raised him 22lb for the wins – but he started life on such a low mark, his rating is still only 96 !

As a result he gets into today’s race with just 10st 4lb – and whilst he is stepping up a class, he could easily be up to the task...

Certainly Towcester is a course that is likely to suit him well – and whilst he might look in trouble at some point in the race, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in front where it matters.

That said, there is no margin in a best price of 7/4, considering he is taking on by far the best opposition he has faced so far.

Royal Native and Umberto D’Olivate are the two who look most likely to cause him issues – though neither of them is rock solid.

Royal Native is potentially well treated, but unshipped his rider on his recent seasonal debut. Towcester takes a bit of jumping, so he’ll need to be very careful this afternoon.

Umberto D’Olivate looks the better bet. He bounced back to form on his seasonal debut at Exeter – and is still potentially well handicapped off a mark 8lb higher.

The question mark with him concerns the course – but if he handles it, he should go well.

He is probably the closest I got to a tip today (possibly EW).
However, despite being 7/1 on BF, he’s only 5/1 with the bookmakers – and the margin in that is small.

Amidon and Desert Joe are the other 2 of potential interest – though both would need to bounce back to form.

Amidon is certainly well enough handicapped, if the fist time visor has the desired effect.

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.

Advice Summary

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