Daily write-up - Dec 14th

There are just the 2 NH meetings this afternoon: at Newbury and Musselburgh.

However, both are of a reasonable quality and there are a few interesting races taking place…

Tipping in the races is as tricky as ever, due to the fragile markets.

However, I managed to issue one tip – and have a few other thoughts., which you may be able to turn into bets, as the day progresses…

Newbury

1:30 The top 2 in the market for this, both have very strong form…

Favourite, Beware the Bear, was a good winner last time at Ascot. He comfortably beat Singlefarmpayment and that one went on to frank the form, in no uncertain terms, at Cheltenham, last Friday.

Beware the Bear only got a 6lb weight rise for his win – and that really doesn’t look enough to stop him following up.

He is the one to beat.
That said, second favourite, Warriors Tale has form which is almost as strong.

He finished second in a better race than this, over today’s course, at the Hennessy meeting.

He has only been raised a pound for that run – and if he repeats it, he too will take a bit of beating…

With 2 such strong contenders heading the market, it’s maybe not wise to look much further – though this is a potentially deep race.

Monbeg Gold and Aurillac are both decent horses, who should be up to winning a race of this nature (though maybe not this one !); whilst Private Malone, Caracci Apache, Royal Milan, Lessons in Milan and Weststreet all have the potential to put in really big runs…

The market will likely guide on the last 5 named – but I’d be wary, if any of them were particularly strong in the betting.

Such a competitive race almost has to be a watching race.

I’ve had a small play on Royal Milan at a big price – but it’s more in hope than expectation…

2:00 Drumacoo opened up a 5/1 shot for this, last night – he was certainly worth a risk at that price !

He’s 2/1 now – and I’m not sure there’s much margin in that…

I do think he’s the most likely winner of the race – but he’s got a few questions to answer.

He’s clearly a fragile horse – and has only managed to run twice for Ben Pauling.

However, the fact he is so fragile means that when he makes it to the track, he has to be taken very seriously…

I did half fancy him for the Hennessy, but he was taken out of the race at the overnight declaration stage.

He’s was clearly ready at that point though, so fitness is unlikely to be an issue this afternoon.

The question is really whether he is good enough to beat some fairly talented rivals.

We have limited evidence – but I suspect he probably is…

On the book, Camping Ground is the one he has to beat – but he would prefer shorter and softer (though the 2 might cancel each other out).

Three Faces West was an impressive last time out – but that was in a much poorer race at Haydock.

He should also have his work cut out to beat Jut a Par, whom he meets on 18lb worse terms having proved superior by just over 4 lengths, when they met, last season.

In truth, I’ll be surprised if either of them is quite good enough this afternoon.

Coologue has a chance - particularly if he gets an uncontested lead.

Charlie Longsdon could certainly do with a bit of luck as he’s saddled a lot of runners up, recently.

Outsider Aqalim can’t be completely dismissed.

He gets weight from the entire field – and on official ratings, has every chance…

It’s a tricky race to call – not helped by the fact that tactics could play a big part.

I think Drumacoo is the most likely winner – but rather than take the 2/1 pre-race, I might look to back him in-running.

Coologue is one who could trade shorter in the race – whilst Aqalim could be worth a tiny speculative interest if he gets to a silly price.

2:35 I did think I might have found an interesting one at a price in this – but the price has now well and truly gone !

Starkie as the on that interested me and I felt he might slip beneath the radar - but I was wrong.

He opened up at 8/1 last night – and I could understand why. However, you’ll struggle to beat 4/1 this morning and that is too tight in a race which isn’t easy to evaluate…

For a start, there are a couple of horses running who could be anything.

Keep Moving has his second race for Philip Hobbs having raced previously only in France; whilst Cepage makes his debut for Venetia, again having also raced exclusively in France, prior to today.

We literally have no idea how good either of them are (though my guess is that they will improve for the race – unless the market strongly says otherwise).

Even if you ignore them, then there are still 3 interesting runners in the race, in the shape of Starkie, After Hours and Smoking Jacket.

Of the 3, I prefer Starkie – but I also respect the chance of Smoking jacket…

In the price was right, I would be prepared to take a gamble on Starkie – and I guess it’s always difficult to know what the ‘right price’ is…

However, instinctively I feel it is closer to 6/1, than the current 4/1 on offer…

Musselburgh

1:40 I tipped Quito De Tresor in the first week of this season…

He was slightly risky that day, in so much as he hadn’t run for a while – and was facing class 3 opposition.

Sure enough, he came up slightly short – but only slightly (he finished fourth).

My feeling at the time was, that he could be worth following again next time, in similar conditions  – provided he was dropped a class…

And hey presto, that’s exactly what happens today.
He’s down to class 4; running over the same course and distance – and once again, on good ground.

He’s also had a relatively recent run - so should be ready to do himself justice.

In truth, if it weren’t for a couple of factors, I would be staking him much higher.

However, the horse is 13 in a fortnights time, and I would always struggle to get to overly enthusiastic about a teenager ! Also, his stable, that of Lucinda Russell, really isn’t in the best of form.
In truth, that worries me more than his age – though she has had a few horses run reasonable races, so I’m cautiously optimistic.

It’s a shame really, as he could easily have been a half point tip (or even more !) – but in the circumstances, I feel it is better to be prudent (though I do still want him on side).
In terms of the opposition, then I’ve not paid that much attention.

Royal McNab is a well backed favourite - but Quito finished in front of him last time and is 1lb better off. That told me all I needed to know !

In terms of his price: then I feel that anything down to 5/1 is acceptable – so no one should struggle with that !

Fingers crossed !

2:50 Teo Vivo and Tap Night are the 2 that interest me most in this…

Teo Vivo won a similar race to this in February – and gets to run off the same mark this afternoon.

However he also gets to run over 3 furlongs further – and doesn’t have Brian Hughes in the saddle.

Added to that, he is returning from an unsuccessful attempt at chasing.
There are a few contradictory messages – and 4/1 doesn’t really feel like a price that warrants much of a risk.

Tap Night is a bigger price (8/1) – and has conditions in his favour. The issue with him is how much ability remains.

He should be more than capable of taking a race such as this – but that has been the case for his last few runs.

He is also trained by Lucinda Russell - and ridden by Blair Campbell – so maybe he can give them both a day to remember !

Of the 2, I would slight favour Tap Night at the prices – though he is quite risky…

3:20 Broom Lane is the one that really interests me in this – mainly because Tim Vaughan has sent him on a 600+ mile round trip, to run !

His jockey booking is also quite interesting, though…

It is James Bests only ride of the day – and he doesn’t often ride for the stable. However, on the 16 previous occasions he has done, he is yet to ride a winner…

The application of first time cheek pieces (in addition to a hood), complete the hat trick of subtle signs – though again, this can be read either way (I suspect the horse has a bit of temperament).

In truth, I’m not sure what to make of it all…

I suspect the horse is capable of bolting up – or of not starting !

The market could well proved the best guide (he’s currently a 5/1 shot).

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB

Advice Summary

Tips

DT Muss 1:40 Quite du Tresor 0.25pt win 10/1