Daily write-up - Dec 16th

There are 2 NH meetings this afternoon: at Ascot and Uttoxeter.

Things are similar to yesterday, in so much as both are reasonable meetings, with at least a  couple of races of interest.

However, I can’t see anything in the early markets, that compels me to tip…

Thanks to everyone who has so far commented on the ‘Tipping Issues’ email, that I sent out last night.

I was hoping it would trigger a lively discussion – and it looks like that could be the case !

Obviously, time is tight for me on a Friday and Saturday – but I’ll aim to respond to all comments in a timely fashion…

Here are my thoughts on the days main races – including comments on the 4 eye catchers that are running…

Ascot

1:20 Imperial Presence was an eye catcher last time he ran at Newbury.
That was in a relatively strong race – and he didn’t seem to have the pace to cope with some speedy rivals.

I was hoping he would be stepped up in trip for his next run – but that’s not happened and he is running again today, over the minimum distance.

He likes to get on with things – but so to does favourite, Back by Midnight.

There is therefore the danger that the 2 of them will take each other on (which wouldn’t be good for either of them).

Regardless, I probably prefer the chances of I’dliketheoption.

He seemed not to quite get home last time at Doncaster, over half a mile further.

That was also a relatively strong race, and he travelled like the best horse for a good part of it.

Barry Geraghty returns to the saddle this afternoon, which is a positive (particularly as JP McManus has a second runner in the race, in the shape of  Champagne at Tara).

I would expect Red Devil Star to run well – and quite possibly place; but it’s a bit more difficult to be adamant about the chances of either Dubawi Island or Mister Springsprong.
The former makes it’s seasonal debut – and faces fences for the first time: Whilst the latter has its first run for Brian Ellison (and is being sent a long way for it).

In summary, I think I’dliketheoption is the most likely race winner – but most of his rivals have some kind of a chance.

As always, it comes down to the odds on offer. 7/2 feels like the right price to me – and that’s what you can get.

If you are able to beat it in the run up to the off, it could be worth a bet.

2:30 It’s not really a betting race, but it will be fascinating to see how Politologue fares in this…

He was hugely impressive on his chasing debut at Haydock – though runner up, Vintage Clouds, didn’t really frank the form earlier this week…

That’s not to take anything away from Politologue, just to say that the form of his win, didn’t match the visual impression he made.

Hopefully we will learn a little more this afternoon – though with only 3 rivals in opposition, that isn’t guaranteed…

3:05 There are a couple of eye catchers running in this – but as I mentioned on the forum, they were both very well backed yesterday evening, before we could get involved with them.

The first of them is Ballyarthur.

He was sent off favourite, when finishing fourth in a very strong novice handicap at the Cheltenham November meeting.
He looked as if he would improve for the run – and is clearly the one to beat today.

However, this is a tough race – and 2/1 is short (the original 3/1 was short enough).

Hastrubal is the other eye catcher – but there is more guesswork in involved with him…

He ran eye catchingly at Huntingdon last time, on his final run before getting a handicap mark.

He’s been given a mark of 115 – and stepped up half a mile for his handicap debut (which is what I would have expected).

In a less strong race – or at a bigger price - he would be worth a risk. But 6/1 in this race, is too short…

Fortunate George is another one of potential interest - though you have to be prepared to forgive a poor seasonal debut run at Cheltenham.

I could also be interested in Morning Herald.
She was declared to run in the hot mares handicap which closed the card at Cheltenham on Saturday – but was pulled out of the race.

I have no issue with her price (14/1) – it’s just whether I want to be siding with a horse who I think is probably third or fourth best in the race, because she represents a bit of value…

Uttoxeter

2:20 Brownville is the 4^th and final eye catcher running today.

He caught the eye on his penultimate run at Cheltenham, before getting turned over as a 2/5 shot in a 3 horse race at Warwick.

My inclination would be to ignore the Warwick race – and if you do so, then he appears to have a very good chance today.

For a start, he will be running off a mark 3lb lower than at Cheltenham – and that is ignoring the claim of his jockey, Zac Baker.

Bizarrely, taking his claim into consideration, Brownville will actually be carrying less weight than any of his rival – despite, having top weight in the race !

Todays trip and ground should be spot on for him – and there really is no reason why he shouldn’t run well.

Again the issue is with the price - and the opposition.

Albert Dolivate, Lilly of the Moor, Cailleach Annie and Special Wells, can all be given a chance.

I like the chances of Brownville best – but a price of 7/2 has very little margin, in it…

In terms of value, then Cailleach Annie probably offers most. The quote of 7/1 on her, seems quite fair…

2:55 Zac Baker has his second ride of the afternoon for Nigel Twiston Davies in this – and could easily be on his second winner of the day.

The very fact that Twiston Davies has booked him for the horse, seems significant, and his form makes him a worthy market leader.

That said, it’s not a race that you can be confident about.

Alf ‘N’ Dor looks very interesting on his first run in a handicap – and is the only runner on the day for both Peter Bowen and son Sean.

If he is strong in the market, I would be inclined to take the hint.

Holbrook Park has the form to go close, as does Carry on Sydney; whilst Saint John Henry could also be interesting if ready to do himself justice on his return to action.

Half chances could be given to a couple of the others as well, so in truth, it is probably a race that is best just watched…

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Eye Catchers

Asc 1:20 Imperial Presence

Asc 3:05 Ballyarthur

Asc 3:05 Hastrubal

Uttx 2:20 Brownville