Monday 12 December 2016

Review of the day

We didn’t get much of a run from todays tip, Morello Royal.
She took a slithering fall after jumping the very first fence – and that was that…

It was a bit of a shame really as she had been backed in to an SP of 16/1 – and looked relatively strong in the market.
I think we had a bit of theoretical value – but ultimately it counted for nothing…

Whether she would have been involved in the race, had she stood up, is open to debate.
The ground looked much softer at Warwick than I expected – and whist that might not have suited her, the extra demand on stamina, would have done.
I also think she could have been suited by the way the race unfolded, as she tends to be settled in and pick off horses…

One thing’s for sure, the rain didn’t help the causes of either Rock of the Moor or The Organist – suiting instead, the horses with confirmed stamina, namely Briery Belle and Desert Queen.
They had the race between them from half way – and it was the former who ultimately proved the stronger…

The next race on the Warwick card was won by Brandon Hill.
As I said this morning, he had the form over hurdles to win – but you had to guess on how much of the ability remained.
Clearly there are some very good guessers out there, as 12/1 last night: became 5/1 this morning – and 3/1 by the off.
He justified the support with the minimum of fuss.

Amiral Colonges ran better than he had done at Market Rasen – and maybe I was wrong to suggest he was being plotted up for something.
He didn’t look the most straightforward - and the cheek pieces seemed to improve him a little.
I suspect he is one just to watch though - at least in the short term…

Over at Wincanton, Winning Spark did indeed provide a winner on the day for the Eye Catchers – hurray !
That said, he came mighty close to providing them with another runner up.

He had to battle all the way up the run-in, to get past Hint of Mint – but battle he did.
The most surprising things was his SP of 5/1.

I would have struggled to beat 3/1 this morning – and I wasn’t interested at that price.
At 5/1 I would have been far more tempted – but it wasn’t an option.

As I’ve said before, that’s the issue with tipping in fixed windows: the early prices are no use; and the late prices are no use – it’s the ones available early morning that we have to run with (an unfortunately, they are often the worst of the lot).

Earlier on the Taunton card, Today Please was pulled up very quickly just after half way.
You have to assume that something was amiss with him…

Over at Newcastle, Ash Park was an early faller in the novice chase – which was a little disappointing (and a little unexpected, bearing in mind how well he had jumped at Carlisle).

Whilst, Captain Hox had every chance in the handicap chase – but didn’t really seem to want it.
I wish I’d napped Winning Spark instead !!

TVB.

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