Daily write-up - Dec 29th

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon, at Doncaster and Kelso in the UK – and Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland.

It’s the final day of the 4 day meetings at both the Irish venues.

The Ryanair hurdle is the high-light of the Leopardstown card – but it’s not really a betting race.

I had a few things to do, early yesterday evening…

Consequently, I tried to get ahead, by studying todays form, during the afternoon.

As always, I listed the horses in which I was potentially interested, on a page in my work book.

Late in the evening (around 10:00), when things had quietened down, I looked through Oddschecker to establish the prices of the horses – and see if there was anything I would be able to tip.

What I saw was truly incredible.
Literally every horse I had written down, was blue on Oddschecker.

And more than that, on most occasions they were the only horses in the race which were totally blue (some horses go blue in one or two places, where there are standout prices).

As I’ve said previously, the horses I get drawn to are clearly being picked up on by others – and being backed early.

Consequently, the ‘value’ in their prices is disappearing.

I can understand exactly why.

If you are able to read form – or if you watch races – then they are the horses for whom you could make a decent case.

Ofcourse this doesn’t mean they will win – as there are plenty of other factors that impact the result of a race.
However, many of these aren’t available to the general public – so they can’t be considered by someone like me, when assessing a race…

In truth. I’m not sure where this leaves me.

The times when there will still be value in the price of a horse I can be interested in, early in the morning, are going to be rare – certainly in the smaller races.

I think it is less of an issue in the big races, as generally, more of the horses are backed…

Anyway, I just thought it worth explaining the situation (though I know I have mentioned it previously), as it was a very stark example of the issue I face on a daily basis…

Despite all of that, I have managed to find a tip on the day ! – though needless to say, not at the price I was hoping for…

Scotswell opened at a general 9/1 – but was 7/1 by the time I could issue this morning.

I think there is still a bit of value in that price – though not a huge amount.

The other potential tips have had to become mentions. Whether they are still worth backing, needs to be assessed on a horse by horse basis.

There are also a couple of eye catcher running – plus Alpha Des Obeaux in Ireland (who I have tipped ante post for the RSA chase).

So all in all, quite a busy day…

Doncaster

12:25 Valseur du Granval is the first of 2 eye catchers running today – and he has a decent chance.

He caught the eye on his penultimate run at Chepstow, when winning very easily.

I felt he could cope with a step up in grade – but he found himself in a very strong novice race at Newbury, last time and he wasn’t quite up to the job…

He’s found himself in quite a strong novice race again today – even if he does only face 3 rivals - 2 of whom are making their chasing debuts.

It’s not an easy race to assess – and whilst Valseur du Granval could very well be up to winning it, I’ll be letting him run unbacked, at a best price of 2/1…

2:05 This is a really strong mares race – and I’m not too surprised to see that Briery Belle has been backed into a very short looking 6/4…

She’s a very likeable mare – who is progressing from race to race and has a great attitude.

However, she shouldn’t be a 6/4 shot in this company…

She faces at least 4 rivals who are capable of giving her a run for her money – and whilst I would just about make her race favourite, she would be priced up in my book, at 2/1 – or slightly bigger…

Kalane is second favourite in the betting – and she definitely has a chance…

She put in a much improved performance last time, when wining over todays course – though has been raised 11lb for that victory, which seems a bit harsh.

Viky du Reponet is third favourite - but she is having her first start in the UK, and is impossible to accurately assess.

The fact she is trained by Paul Nicholls means she has to be respected  - though I suspect she will improve for the run.

Desert Queen and The Organist are the 2 other main dangers to Briery Belle – and my feeling is that they are the ones she has to beat.
She actually beat them both last time out at Warwick – but that was on much softer ground.

That wouldn’t have suited The Organist at all, and I would expect her to run much better this afternoon.

However, the best bet in the race is Desert Queen.
She really served it up to Briery Belle at Warwick and only gave best, after the final fence.

She will find it easier to get home today – and if I felt she would get an uncontested lead, I would be prepared to tip her.

However, there are 3 others in the race who also like to lead – so there is a chance there will be a pace war.
I suspect Desert Queen would win such a battle – but she may have to go a bit too hard in order to do so…

Certainly if she does get a relatively easy lead, then I think she will be very difficult to pass – even for Briery Belle…

3:10 I was hoping to take a risk on Willoughby Hedge in this – and would have been quite happy with the 8/1 available last night.

However, you would have struggled to get 5/1 first thing this morning – and that’s too short for a horse with some question marks hanging over him…

He won over course and distance on his penultimate start in February – and whilst he is 6lb higher in the handicap today, that might not stop him

However, the horse fractured his pelvis last spring – and was pulled up on his only run since – so there is no guarantee that he retains his ability.
Like I said, he comes with risks !

If he is right, then he probably has the ability to defy his current mark – particularly as conditions should be perfect for him. However we are guessing on how much ability remains..

This is also quite a trappy race.

I don’t strongly fancy any of his rivals – but I wouldn’t be quick to write many of them off, either…

It’s the kind of race where the betting will probably guide – I would take notice of any horse that is quietly backed through the day (maybe Chris will be able to monitor the market and spot which one it is !)

Kelso

12:30 Island Heights is the second eye catcher running today.

He caught the eye two runs back, when finishing strongly in a decent race at Carlisle.

However, he’s not done so well on his 2 runs since – and as I think he really wants soft ground and hurdles (rather than quick ground and fences).

I’m not inclined to support him today…
Instead, I’m going to take him on with Scotswell.

He half caught my eye last time at Carlisle, when running behind some very decent horses.

He showed up well for quite a long way in that race – though he was ultimately well beaten.
I thought he might be dropped further in the handicap than 2lbs – which is why I didn’t make him an official eye catcher.
However, it is very interesting that he is re-united with jockey Thomas Dowson today – having been ridden by Jan Faltesjek last time.

Dowson claims 7lb - and has already ridden Scotswell to victory – over todays course and distance and on good ground.

He was 5lb lower in the handicap that day – but what’s 5lb when everything else is in your favour ?!

In fairness, Dowson also rode the horse 3 runs ago, when he finished a very creditable runner-up to One for Arthur. I doubt there is anything of that calibre in todays race – and Scotswell gets to run off a mark 2lb lower this afternoon.

Simply, I can’t see why he won’t run a very big race – and 7/1 looks like a fair price…

There are certainly dangers in the race – with Blue Kascade probably the main one. The fact he could pester Scotswell for the lead is also undesirable – but hopefully young Dowson will work that one out.

Aside from him, the other I’m a little fearful of, is Swing Hard.
He was pulled up on his seasonal debut and is weak in the betting today.
Hopefully he will remain that way, because if he is in peak form he would be a real danger.

1:40 I could have been quite interested in Caraline in this – but he’s another one that was hammered in the betting last night…

He opened up at 6/1, which I thought was plenty short enough - but was a best price of 4/1 by this morning.

He does have a very good win record – and is young enough to still be progressing. He should also be better for his seasonal debut – but this is quite a competition race and there is no margin in the price now available.

2:45 Ascot de Bruyere and Just Georgie were the two I was most interested in this – but you’ve guess it – they have both been backed to prices where the value has all gone…

As with the other well backed horses, they may well drift nearer the off – but the question is whether you want to be with a horse which the market isn’t too keen on.

That’s never an easy one to call: sometimes the drift is down simply to market dynamics – but on other occasions, it is down either to another horse being well fancied – or worst of all ,the horse in question not being fancied at all !

Leopardstown

12:20 Katnap is yet another horse that I was quite interested in, that was very well backed last night (if you are fed up reading about them - just imagine how I feel finding them !).
In fairness, this was more expected, as he is having his first run for Joseph O’Brien, so market popularity was always highly likely.

Certainly he is capable of defying a mark of 122 – and I wouldn’t be put off if he did drift pre-race (as it would most probably be a market correction).

The other one of interest is FR Humphrey.

In truth the contest might be a bit hot for him – but he has the ability to win a race off his current mark.

That said, I suspect this is a much hotter race than you would expect for the grade – so maybe not one to get heavily involved in…

1:55 There might not be a tip in this race – but there is certainly an interest…

I have tipped Alpha Des Obeaux for the RSA chase at the Cheltenham festival – and whilst he doesn’t have to win today to keep that bet alive, he probably needs to run with credit…

In truth, I would be very hopeful that he will do just that.
For a start, Gigginstown have 4 runners in the race – and it’s a positive sign that their retained jockey, Bryan Cooper, is on board Alpha Des Obeaux.

Willie Mullins has 2 runners in the race – but I’ll be a little surprised if either Briar Hill or Bellow Mome are good enough.

The biggest danger to Alpha Des Obeaux is likely to be Coney Island.

He came out on top when the pair met last time at Fairyhouse at the beginning of the month. However that was over 2m4f – and I think that todays longer trip will better suit Alpha Des Obeaux.

Whether it will suit him sufficiently to enable him to turn the tables, is a different matter – but I wouldn’t expect there to be much between the pair.

The other one of potential interest is a Gigginstown runner, Prince of Scars.

He got the better of Alpha Des Obeaux when they met over hurdles at this meeting 12 months ago.

Alpha Des Obeaux has looked the better chaser – but clearly Prince of Scars has the natural ability to beat him, if everything goes right.

He doesn’t look like a bad insurance bet, at 14/1…

2:30 A bit like Vroom Vroom Mag yesterday, in all probability, Nichols Canyon will win this.

His price of 1/2 looks short – but he is by far the most likely race winner…

Maybe the best thing, is to try and figure out what will chase him home.

Petit Mouchior is odds on for that role – but I think there could be some value in Jers Girl.
She was runner up to Nichols Canyon last time, at Punchestown – and that was on her seasonal debut.
I would expect her to improve markedly for that run – and whilst that is still likely to see her behind the favourite, it might see her in front of the remainder…

A straight forecast is the obvious play – though the 4/1 in the ‘without Nichols Canyon’ market, holds some appeal…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

DT Kel 12:30 Scotswell 0.25pt win 7/1

Mentions

Donc 2:05 Desert Queen (C )

Donc 3:10 Willoughby Hedge (P )

Kel 1:40 Caraline (P )

Leop 12:20 Katnap (P )

Leop 2:30 Jers Girl (O )

Eye Catchers

Donc 12:25 Valseur du Granval

Kel 12:30 Island Heights